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| Internet: A Medium of een vermaning
De staat van de netto - Een tussentijds verslag over de toekomst van het internet Die zijn de deelnemers die het Internet? Gebruikers - aangesloten op het net en de interactie met het
De communicatie-lijnen en de communicatie-apparatuur
De tussenpersonen (bijvoorbeeld de leveranciers van on-line-informatie of access providers).
Hardware fabrikanten
De software-auteurs en producenten (browsers, het ontwikkelen van websites, tools, specifieke toepassingen, intelligente agenten, zoekmachines en anderen).
De "hitchhikers" (zoekmachines, slimme agenten, Artificial Intelligence - AI - tools en meer)
Content producenten en aanbieders
Leveranciers van de financiële mogelijkheid (op dit moment - corporate en institutionele cash geleidelijk wordt vervangen door de reclame-geld)
Het lot van elk van deze onderdelen - afzonderlijk en in solidariteit - bepalend zullen zijn voor het lot van het internet.
De eerste fase van de geschiedenis van het internet werd gedomineerd door de computer wizards. Zo heeft elke poging tot het voorspellen van de toekomst zal zich vooral met zijn hardware en software componenten.
Media-experts, sociologen, psychologen, reclame en marketing managers zijn weggelaten uit de gezamenlijke inspanning voor het bepalen van de toekomstige gezicht van het internet.
Wat de inhoud betreft, is het internet niet kan worden momenteel gedefinieerd wordt als een medium. Het werkt niet als een - het is eerder een zeer gestoorde bibliotheek, vooral de integratie van de geschriften van niet-onderscheiden megalomaniacs. Het is de ultieme Narcistische ervaring. De krachtige binnenkomst van uitgeverijen en samenstellers van inhoud verandert dit somber landschap, hoewel.
Sinds de uitvinding van de televisie maar er is nog iets als bedelen om een medium als internet.
Drie analogieën aan denkt wanneer zij het Internet in zijn huidige staat:
Een chaotische bibliotheek
Een neuraal netwerk of de laatste dag van de vorige gelijkwaardige netwerken (telegraaf, telefonie, spoorwegen)
Een nieuw continent
Deze metaforen blijken te zijn zeer nuttig (ook business-wise). Zij stellen ons om de commerciële mogelijkheden ingebed in het internet.
Toch zijn ze niet aan ons helpen bij het voorspellen van de toekomst in zijn transformatie tot een medium.
Hoe werkt een uitvinding tot een medium? Wat gebeurt hiermee als het doet zich een? Wat is de dunne lijn tussen de oorspronkelijke werking van de uitvinding van de omzetting daarvan in een nieuw medium? Met andere woorden: wanneer kunnen we zeggen dat een aantal technologische vooruitgang gaf geboorte aan een nieuw medium?
Dit werk behandelt ook het imago van het internet als omgezet in een medium.
Het internet heeft de meest bijzondere kenmerken in de geschiedenis van de media.
Het heeft geen centrale structuur of organisatie. Het is hard-en software onafhankelijk zijn. Het (bijna) niet kan worden onderworpen aan de wetgeving of de regelgeving. Denk aan het voorbeeld van het downloaden van muziek van het internet - is het dan neer op een besluit van de registratie van muziek (een schending van het auteursrecht)? Dit is de kern van de juridische strijd tussen Diamond Multimedia (de fabrikanten van de Rio MP3-apparaat), MP3.com en Napster en de opname-industrie in Amerika.
Het internet is gegevensoverdracht kanalen zijn niet lineair - ze zijn willekeurig. De meeste van haar "uitzending" kan niet worden "ontvangen" zijn. Het geeft de mogelijkheid om de kleinste van narrowcasting door het gebruik van e-mail mailing lists, discussiegroepen, message boards, particuliere radio-stations, en chats. En dit is maar een klein gedeelte van een indrukwekkende lijst van eigenaardigheden. Deze eigenaardigheden zal ook invloed op de aard van het Internet als medium. Teelt van de bizarre wortels - het is gebonden aan de opbrengst vreemd fruit als een medium.
Dus wat zakelijke mogelijkheden doet het internet vertegenwoordigen?
Ik denk dat zij zijn te vinden in twee grote categorieën:
Software en hardware in verband met de toekomst van het Internet als medium
Het creëren van inhoud, het beheer en vergunningen
De kaart van Terra Internetica
De gebruikers
Hoeveel internetgebruikers zijn er? Hoeveel van hen hebben toegang tot het web (World Wide Web - WWW) en het gebruiken? Er zijn geen duidelijke statistieken. Degenen die veronderstellen dat de antwoorden (met inbegrip van de ISOC - de Internet Society) - rekenen op zeer beperkte en bevooroordeelde middelen. Anderen alleen maar bluf.
Toch is iedereen het eens lijkt te zijn dat er ten minste 100 miljoen actieve deelnemers in Noord-Amerika (de Nielsen-en Handel-Net verslagen).
De toekomst is, onvermijdelijk, nog vaag dan de huidige. Gezaghebbende adviesbureaus voorspellen 66 miljoen actieve gebruikers in 10 jaar tijd. IBM overweegt 700 miljoen gebruikers. MCI is meer bescheiden met 300 miljoen. Aan het eind van 1999 waren er 130 miljoen ingeschreven (maar niet noodzakelijk actief) gebruikers.
De Internet - een elitair en chauvinistische Medium
De gemiddelde gebruiker van het internet is jong (30), met een academische achtergrond en de hoge inkomens. Het percentage van de hoogopgeleide en de welgestelde onder de gebruikers van het web is drie keer zo hoog als hun aandeel in de bevolking. Dit is snel veranderende alleen omdat hun kinderen zich bij hen (6 miljoen euro die al was de toegang tot het internet aan het einde van 1996, - en werden bijgestaan door een andere 24 miljoen tegen het einde van het decennium). Dit kan alleen veranderen als gevolg van de presidentiële initiatieven om de "digitale kloof" (van Al Gore's in de Verenigde Staten te Mahatir Mohammed's in Maleisië), corporate en institutionele largesse betrokkenheid (bijvoorbeeld Open Society in Oost-Europa, Microsoft in de VS). Deze inspanningen worden verspreid over de voordelen van deze all-krachtig instrument onder de minder bevoorrechte. Een beetje minder dan 50% van alle gebruikers zijn mannen, maar ze zijn verantwoordelijk voor 60% van de activiteit op het net (zoals gemeten door het verkeer).
Vrouwen lijken te beperken tot de elektronische post (e-mail) en het elektronisch winkelen van goederen en diensten, maar dit verandert snel. Mannen de voorkeur geven aan informatie, hetzij als gevolg van carrière-eisen of omdat de kennis is macht.
Het merendeel van de gebruikers zijn van de "experiencer" ras. Zij zijn de leiders van de sociale veranderingen en innovatieve. Dit ras inhabits universiteiten, modieuze en trendy buurten roepingen. Dat is de reden waarom sommige vraag me af of het internet is niet zomaar een bevlieging, zij het een ongelooflijk veerkrachtig en een veelbelovend.
De meeste gebruikers hebben thuis toegang tot internet - nog, zij nog steeds de voorkeur aan de toegang van het werk, op kosten van hun werkgever, maar deze voorkeur is gering en wordt uitgehold. De meeste gebruikers zijn dan ook op uitbuiting in de natuur. Toch mogen we niet vergeten dat er 37 miljoen huishoudens van de zelfstandigen en dit eventueel verstoort het statistische beeld enigszins.
Het Internet - Een West-fenomeen
Niet in Afrika, het niet in Azië (met uitzondering van Israël en Japan), geen Russisch, noch een Derde Wereld fenomeen. Het behoort vierkant tot de rijken, sated wereld. Het is de voldoening van die die alles hebben en waarvan de grootste zorg is de keuze van een bruisend nachtleven. Tussen 50-60% van alle Internet-gebruikers woont in de Verenigde Staten, 5-10% in Canada. Het Internet is op de vangst van in Europa (vooral in Duitsland en Scandinavië) en, in de vorm van mobiele (i-mode) in Japan. Het Internet verloren aan de Franse Minitel, omdat deze laatste biedt meer lokaal relevante inhoud en vanwege de hoge kosten van communicatie-en hardware.
Communicatie
De meeste computer eigenaren nog steeds over een 28800 bps modem. Dit is net als het besturen van een fiets op een Duitse autosnelweg. De 56600 bps wordt geleidelijk vervangen van de langzamere voorganger (48% van de computers met modems) - maar zelfs dat is niet voldoende. Om te beginnen om te genieten van video-en audiostreams (met name de voormalige) - overdrachtsnelheid van gegevens moeten worden 50 keer sneller.
De helft van de huishoudens in de Verenigde Staten hebben ten minste 2 telefoons en een van hen is meestal gewijd aan de verwerking van de gegevens (fax of per fax-modem).
De ISDN kunnen vormen de tussentijdse oplossing. Deze data overdracht netwerk is redelijk snel en heeft betrekking op 70% van het grondgebied van de Verenigde Staten. Het is een groei van 100% per jaar en de verkoop aangevuld 10 miljard USD in 1995 / 6.
Helaas is het heel duidelijk dat ISDN is niet het antwoord. Het is te traag, te veel gebruikers-onvriendelijk, heeft een slechte aansluiting met andere soorten netwerk, het vereist speciale hardware. Het heeft geen zin om te investeren in tijdelijke oplossingen, wanneer de juiste oplossing is staren van het internet in het gezicht, al is het niet uitgevoerd als gevolg van politieke omstandigheden.
Een kabelmodem is 80 keer sneller dan de ISDN en 700 keer sneller dan een 14400 bps modem. Echter, het heeft dan ook problemen bij de opvang van een twee-weg data-overdracht. Er is ook nodig voor het aansluiten van de glasvezel-infrastructuur die kenmerkend is kabelmaatschappijen om de oude koperen coax-infrastructuur die kenmerkend telefonie. Kabel-gebruikers gaan speciaal aangepaste LAN (Ethernet) en de hardware is duurder (hoewel apparatuur prijzen zijn voorspelling op instorten als de vraag toeneemt). Kabel bedrijven gewoon niet investeren in de ontwikkeling van de technologie. De wet (van vóór 1996 de Communications Act) verbood hen te doen, dat is niet een manier waarop de overdracht van video via kabels. Nu, met de meer liberale regulerende omgeving, het is louter een kwestie van tijd totdat de technologie is gevonden.
In feite zijn de meeste consumenten een enkele slecht klant betrekkingen als hun grootste probleem met de kabel-bedrijven - in plaats van technologie.
Experimenten uitgevoerd met kabelmodems geleid tot een verdubbeling van het gebruik van tijd (van gemiddeld 24 tot 47 uur per maand per gebruiker), die geheel en al toe te schrijven aan de hogere snelheid. Dit komt dicht bij een culturele revolutie in de toewijzing van de vrije tijd. Numeriek spreken: 7 miljoen huishoudens in de VS zijn uitgerust met een twee-weg data overdracht van kabelmodems. Dit is een klein aantal, en het is iedereen het raden indien zij een kritische massa. De verkoop van dergelijke modems bedrag tot 1,3 miljard USD per jaar.
50% van alle kabel-abonnees hebben ook een pc thuis. Voor mij lijkt het erop dat de fusie van de twee technologieën is onvermijdelijk.
Andere technologische oplossingen - zoals DSL, ADSL, en de meer veelbelovende satelliet breedband - worden ontwikkeld en uitgevoerd, zij het langzaam en inefficiënt. De dekking is sporadisch en frustrerend wachttijden worden gemeten in maanden.
Hardware en software
De meeste internetgebruikers (82%) werken met het Windows-besturingssysteem. Ongeveer 11% eigenaar zijn van een Macintosh (grafisch veel sterker en meer gebruiksvriendelijk). Slechts 7% blijven werken op UNIX-gebaseerde systemen (die, historisch gezien, fathered het Internet) - en dit aantal is snel af. Een sterke nieuwkomer is het vrij source Linux als besturingssysteem.
Vrijwel alle gebruikers surfen via een browsing software. Een snel slinkende minderheid (26%) gebruik van Netscape's producten (voornamelijk Navigator en Communicator) en de meerderheid gebruik van Microsoft Explorer (meer dan 60% van de markt). Browsers zijn nu gratis producten en kunnen worden gedownload van het internet. Tot in 1997 was voorspeld door de grote adviesbureaus die Internet browser zal de afzet van boven $ 4 miljard in het jaar 2000. Deze verkeerde voorspellingen genegeerd de fundamentele grondbeginselen van het internet: gratis producten, gratis content, gratis toegang.
Browsers zijn in voor een grote transformatie. De meeste van hen zijn waarschijnlijk 3-D, geavanceerde audio-, telefonie / spraak-en video-mail (v-mail), chatten, e-mail, video-conferencing en mogelijkheden geïntegreerd in dezelfde browsersessie. Zij zal zelf aanpassen, intelligente, internet interfaces. Zij zullen slaan in het geheugen van de geschiedenis van het gebruik en de voorkeur van de gebruikers en passen zich. Hierdoor wordt het mogelijk om inhoud-specificiteit: niet-identificeerbare slimme agenten zullen scour het internet, aanbevelingen doen, vergelijk de prijzen, om goederen en diensten en de inhoud aanpassen in overeenstemming met zelf-aanpassing van gebruikersprofielen.
Twee belangrijke technologische ontwikkelingen moet worden beschouwd:
PDA's (Personal Digital Assistants) - de ultieme persoonlijke (en kantoor) communicators, makkelijk mee te nemen, zij het internet (toegang) Overal, onafhankelijk van leveranciers en aanbieders en van de fysieke infrastructuur (in een vliegtuig, in het veld, in een bioscoop) .
De tweede trend: draadloze gegevensoverdracht en draadloze e-mail, of via de pagers, mobiele telefoons, of door middel van meer geavanceerde apparaten en hybriden, zoals smartphones. Geotech's producten zijn een goed voorbeeld: e-mail, fax, telefoon en een aansluiting op het internet en aan andere, publieke en zakelijke, of eigendomsrechten, databases - alle door dezelfde gadget. Dit is de belichaming van de elektronische, fysiek vrijstaand, kantoor. Draagbare computers moeten worden beschouwd als een onderdeel van dit "alomtegenwoordige of pervasive computing" golf.
Wij hebben geen manier van meten - of intelligent raden - Het deel van de mobiele internet in de totale toekomstige Internet-markt, maar is waarschijnlijk zwaarder wegen dan de "vaste" deel. Draadloos internet aansluit bij de trend van pervasive computing en de intelligente thuis en op kantoor. Huishoudelijke gadgets, zoals magnetrons, koelkasten en dergelijke zal verbinden met het internet via een draadloze interface verplicht doden van gegevens, het downloaden van informatie, om goederen en diensten, verslag van hun aandoening en basis onderhoud functies. Locatie specifieke diensten (navigatie, winkelen aanbevelingen, speciale kortingen, aanbiedingen en verkoop, hulpdiensten) zijn afhankelijk van de technologische samenloop tussen GPS (stallite op basis van geografische technologie) en draadloos internet.
Leveranciers en intermediairs
"Parasieten" tussenpersonen bezetten elk stadium van het Internet de voedselketen.
De toegang tot het Internet wordt nog steeds bepaald door 'domme pijpen "- de Internet Service Providers (ISP)
Content is nog steeds het behoud van de content leveranciers en ga zo maar door.
Sommige van deze tussenpersonen zijn gedoemd om geleidelijk vervagen of lijden aan een aanzienlijke vermindering van hun aandeel in de markt. Zelfs "walled gardens" van de inhoud (zoals AOL) zijn in gevaar.
Bij wijze van vergelijking, ook vandaag, ISP's hebben vier keer zo veel abonnees (wereldwijd), zoals AOL. Toegegeven, dit een nadelig effect heeft op de kwaliteit van de Internet - de infrastructuur wordt beheerd door de telefoon bedrijven is traag en vaak succumbs tot knelpunten. De ondubbelzinnige bedoeling van de telefonie reuzen te worden belangrijke spelers in de internet markt moet ook rekening worden gehouden. De telefoon bedrijven zullen dus een dubbele rol weggelegd: zij zal de toegang tot hun infrastructuur aan hun concurrenten (soms binnen een reëel of feitelijke monopolie) - en zij zullen concurreren met hun klanten. Hetzelfde kan worden gezegd over de kabelbedrijven. Beheersing van de laatste kilometer naar de gebruiker van de woning is de volgende grote bedrijven van het internet. Bedrijven zoals AOL zijn benadeeld door deze trends. Het is absoluut noodzakelijk voor AOL te krijgen gelijke toegang tot de kabel bedrijf backbone-infrastructuur en als ze wil overleven. Vandaar dat de fusie met Time Warner.
Geen wonder dat veel van de ISP's oordeel over deze inbraak op hun turf door de telefoon en kabel-bedrijven aan oneerlijke concurrentie. Maar men moet niet vergeten dat de barrières voor toetreding zijn zeer laag in de ISP-markt. Het duurt een minimale investering van een ISP. 200 modems (waarvan de kosten 200 USD per stuk) zijn voldoende om te voldoen aan de behoeften van de gebruikers die gemiddeld 2000 genereren een inkomen van 500000 dollar per jaar aan de ISP. Routers zijn net zo goedkoop is. Dit is een mooi rendement op het kapitaal van de ISP, ongetwijfeld.
De hitchhikers
Het Web herbergt het equivalent van 100 miljard pagina's. Search Engine toepassingen worden gebruikt om specifieke informatie in deze indrukwekkende, voortdurend uitdijende bibliotheek. Zij zullen worden vervangen, in de nabije toekomst, door "Kennis Structures" - gigantische encyclopedieën, waarvan de tekst zal bevatten verwijzingen (hyperlinks) naar andere, relevante, websites. De verre toekomst zullen getuigen van de opkomst van de "Intelligente Archief" en de "Persoonlijke Kranten" (lees verder voor gedetailleerde uitleg). Sommige software-applicaties zal een samenvatting van de inhoud, anderen zullen automatisch referentie-index en de hyperlink en teksten (virtuele bibliografieën). Een gemiddelde gebruiker zal een permanente belangstelling voor 500 sites. Speciale software nodig zal zijn voor het beheer van het adressenbestand ( "bookmarks", "favorieten") en de inhoud ( "Intelligente Addressbooks"). Het verschijnsel van zoekmachines gewijd aan de zoekopdracht een aantal zoekmachines tegelijk zal groeien ( "Hyper-of meta-motoren"). Meta-motoren zal werken op de achtergrond en downloaden van hyperlinks en reclame (de laatste is van essentieel belang om de financiële belangen van de site ontwikkelaars en eigenaren). Statistische software die tracks ( "hoe lang was wat gebeuren"), monitoren ( "wat hebben ze doen, terwijl er in de site") en telt ( "hoeveel") bezoekers van sites al bestaat. Sommige van deze toepassingen hebben back-office (administratie, follow-up, verzamelingen, zelfs tele-marketing). Zij bieden alle tijd en sommige paden zorgen voor auditing.
Dit is maar een klein fragment van de zich snel ontwikkelende netto-scape: mensen en bedrijven die leven buiten het internet rage in plaats van af het internet zelf. Iedereen weet dat er meer geld in de les over hoe u geld kunt verdienen op het internet - dan in het internet zelf. Dit motto is nog steeds zo, ondanks de 32 miljard US dollar in E-commerce in 1998. Business to Consumer (B2C) verkopen groeien minder krachtig dan de Business to Business (B2B) de verkoop en zijn waarschijnlijk het slachtoffer een ander slag met de komst van Peer to Peer (P2P) computernetwerken. De laatste pc's in staat om op te treden als servers en dus in de gelegenheid stellen het omwisselen van computerbestanden asmong aangesloten gebruikers (met of zonder een centrale directory).
Content Leveranciers
Dit is de achtergestelde sector van het internet. Ze verliezen alle geld (ook e-tailers, die basis-aanbod, gestandaardiseerde goederen - boeken, cd's - met uitzondering, tot 11 september, van sites die verband houden met toerisme). Niemand dank hen voor de inhoud die geproduceerd zijn met de investering van veel inspanning en veel geld. Een echt kwalitatieve, volledig commerce site kosten tot een maximum van USD 5000000, met uitzondering van de site uit en de klant en bezoeker. De providers zijn voortdurend bekritiseerd voor het gebrek aan creativiteit of voor te veel creativiteit. Meer en meer wordt gevraagd van hen. Ze worden uitgebuit door tussenpersonen, hitchhikers en andere parasieten. Dit is al een off-shoot van het ethos van het internet als een gratis content.
Meer dan 100 miljoen mannen en vrouwen constant toegang tot het Web - maar dit nummer staat te groeien (de mediane voorspelling: 300 miljoen). Maar, terwijl het Web wordt gebruikt door 35% van de personen met toegang tot het Internet - e-mail wordt gebruikt door meer dan 60%. E-mail is veruit de meest voorkomende functie ( "killer app") en gespecialiseerde toepassingen (Eudora, Internet Mail, Microsoft Exchange) - gratis advertentie of gesponsorde - bewaar deze voor iedereen toegankelijk zijn en gebruiksvriendelijk.
Het merendeel van de gebruikers als om te surfen (bladeren, sites bezoeken) de netto zonder reden of doel voor ogen. Dit maakt het moeilijk om de traditionele marketing technieken.
Wat is de betekenis van "doelgroepen" of "marktaandeel" in deze context?
Als een surfer sites bezoeken die zich bezig houden met afwijkende geslacht en kernfysica in dezelfde sessie - wat van te maken?
De overheids-en wetgevende reactie tegen het verzamelen van surfers gegevens door Internet reclamebureaus en andere websites - heeft geleid tot toenemende onwetendheid met betrekking tot het profiel van de Internet-gebruikers, hun demografie, de voorkeuren en niet echt.
Mensen willen het besluit van het surfen. Ze willen-ontvankelijk is, dan gebruiken ze het internet als een hulpmiddel, meestal in dienst van hun werkgever, die, in de regel betaalt de rekening. Gebruikers liefde gratis downloads (voornamelijk software).
"Gratis" is een sleutelwoord op het internet: het wordt gebruikt als behorend tot de Amerikaanse regering en aan een heleboel van de universiteiten. Gebruikers als informatie, met de nadruk op nieuws en informatie over nieuwe producten. Maar ze houden niet van winkelen op het internet, - nog niet. Slechts 38% van de surfers een aankoop in 1998.
67% van hen hou van virtuele seks. 50% van de meest bezochte sites zijn porno sites (dit doet denken aan de vroege dagen van de videorecorder - VCR). Mensen besteden evenveel tijd aan het bekijken van video-cassettes of televisie als voor het surfen op het net. Het internet lijkt te cannibalize televisie.
Sex wordt gevolgd door muziek, sport, gezondheid, televisie, computers, film, politiek, huisdieren en koken sites. Mensen zijn gevestigd op interactieve spelletjes. Het internet zal binnenkort mensen in staat stellen om te gokken, zo niet gehinderd door regelgeving. 10 miljard dollar in geld gokken worden voorspeld zijn om door het net. Dit is niet zo vreemd: niet zoiets als een computer om onmiddellijke (monetaire en psychologische) beloningen.
Handel op het net is een andere favoriet. Het internet is een perfect medium voor de verkoop van software en andere digitale producten (e-boeken). Het probleem van de beveiliging van de gegevens is op weg naar een oplossing met de SET-(of andere) wereld standaard.
Al in 1995, het internet was meer dan 100 virtuele winkelcentra bezocht door 2,5 miljoen shoppers (en waarschijnlijk het dubbele dit aantal in 1996).
De voorspellingen voor 1999 waren tussen de 1-5 miljard USD van de netto-shopping (plus 2 miljard dollar via on-line informatie-aanbieders, zoals CompuServe en AOL) - bleek hopeloos onnauwkeurig. Het werkelijke aantal in 1998 werd 7 maal de voorspelling voor 1999.
Het is ook algemeen van mening dat circa 20% van de familie begroting zal via het internet, zoals e-geld en dit komt neer op 150 miljard USD.
Het internet wordt een reus tussen banken clearing systeem en gevarieerd ATM type bank-en beleggingsdiensten zal worden verstrekt via het. Kortom, alles wat er gedaan kan worden via het Internet: op zoek naar een baan, bijvoorbeeld.
Maar, het Internet zal nooit de plaats innemen van de menselijke interactie. Mensen zullen waarschijnlijk de voorkeur geven aan persoonlijke bank-, winkel-venster en de sociale ervaring van het winkelcentrum op internet bankieren en e-commerce, of m-commerce.
Sommige sites al sport advertenties. Dit is geen slechte manier om de dekking van de kosten, hoewel de meeste advertenties zijn gratis (het is de reclame die zij trekken dat zaken).
Een andere trend is de ontwikkeling van website-rating en kritiek. Het zal worden behandeld de manier waarop de huidige edities gedrukt worden. Het zal slechts een beperkte invloed op de consumptie beslissingen van sommige gebruikers. Browsers al sport knoppen vermeld "What's New" en "What's Hot". De meeste zoekmachines bevelen bepaalde sites. Gebruikers zijn voorzichtig. Studies ontdekt dat geen enkele gebruiker, hoe zwaar, heeft steeds opnieuw een bezoek meer dan 200 locaties, een aantal minuscule. De 10 meest populaire websites (Yahoo, MSN, enz.) trok meer dan 50% van alle Internet-verkeer. Site aanbeveling diensten vaak tot willekeurige - soms verkeerd - selecties voor de gebruiker. Er is ook bezorgdheid over de privacy van gebruikers. De backlah tegen Amazon's "lezers" kringen "is een voorbeeld.
Web-critici, die het werk van vandaag hoofdzakelijk voor de geschreven pers, zal publiceren hun waren op het net en is gekoppeld aan intelligente software die hyperlink, adviseren en verwijzen. Sommige critici web wordt aangeduid met specifieke toepassingen - echt, expertsystemen die zullen hun kennis en ervaring.
De Money
Waar zal het kapitaal nodig voor de financiering van al deze ontwikkelingen vandaan?
Nogmaals, er zijn twee scholen:
Men zegt dat sites zullen worden gefinancierd door middel van reclame - en dus zal zoekmachines en andere toepassingen toegankelijk voor gebruikers.
Sommige ASP (Application Service Providers die verhuren toegang tot de applicatie software die zich op hun servers) zijn op dit model.
De tweede versie is eenvoudiger en maakt het mogelijk voor het bestaan van niet-commerciële inhoud.
Zij stelt voor het verzamelen van te verwaarlozen bedragen (cent of fracties van centen) van elke gebruiker voor elk bezoek ( 'micro-payments ") of een abonnement. Deze geaccumuleerde cent of abonnementskosten in staat zal stellen de eigenaars van oude sites te actualiseren en te handhaven en te stimuleren ondernemers voor de ontwikkeling van nieuwe. Bepaalde samenstellers van inhoud (met name van digitale schoolboeken) hebben dit model (Questia, Fathom).
De aanhangers van de eerste school wees op de 5 miljoen USD geïnvesteerd in reclame in 1995 en tot de 60 miljoen of zo investeerde in 1996.
Haar tegenstanders punt precies op dezelfde nummers: belachelijk klein in schril contrast met de meer conventionele reclame modi. De mogelijkheden van adverteren op het net is beperkt tot 1,5 miljard USD per jaar in 1998, thundered de pessimisten (velen dachten dat zelfs de helft van dat zou erg mooi). Het werkelijke aantal was het dubbele van de prognose, maar nog steeds hopeloos kleine en onvoldoende ter ondersteuning van de internet-content ontwikkeling.
Vergelijk deze cijfers met de verkoop van internet-software ($ 4 miljard), Internet hardware ($ 3 miljard), toegang tot het internet aanbieden ($ 4,2 miljard) in 1995.
Hembrecht en Quist Geschat wordt dat Internet gerelateerde industrieën haalde van 23,2 miljard USD per jaar (Een verslag uitgebracht in mid-1996).
En wat volgt reclame is nauwelijks meer enocuraging.
De consument wisselwerking en het product is geleverd aan hem. Deze - de bestelfase - is een traag en enervating epiloog aan het spannende aangelegenheid van bestellen via het net met de snelheid van het licht. Te veel consumenten nog steeds klagen dat ze niet krijgen wat ze in volgorde, of dat de levering is te laat en producten met gebreken.
De oplossing kan liggen in de integratie van reclame en inhoud. Pointcast, bijvoorbeeld, geïntegreerde reclame in haar nieuwsuitzendingen, continu gestreamd naar de gebruiker het scherm, zelfs als inactief (zij een downloadbare screensaver actief en ticker in een "push-technologie '). Het downloaden van digitale muziek, video en tekst (e-books) zal leiden tot onmiddellijke bevrediging van de consument en zal de effectiviteit van reclame.
Wat ook het geval, een uniform, overeengekomen systeem van beoordeling als basis voor de heffing van adverteerders, is hard nodig. Er is ook de vraag wat doet de adverteerder betaalt voor?
Veel adverteerders (Procter & Gamble, bijvoorbeeld) weigert te betalen op basis van het aantal hits of vertoningen (= vermeldingen, een bezoek aan een site). Zij zijn het erover eens te betalen alleen op basis van het aantal keren dat de advertentie was hun hit (pageviews).
Deze verschillende grondslag voor de berekening zou te verstoren alle ontvangsten scenario's.
Slechts een zeer klein aantal sites van belangrijke, respectabele kranten zijn op basis van een abonnementsformule. Dow Jones (Wall Street Journal) en The Economist, noem maar twee.
Zal dit de heersende trend?
Het internet als een metafoor
Drie metaforen ik aan denken bij het overwegen van het Internet "filosofisch".
Het internet als een chaotische Bibliotheek
1. Het probleem van het catalogiseren
Het internet is een assortiment van miljarden pagina's met informatie. Sommigen van hen zijn zichtbaar en anderen worden gegenereerd uit verborgen databases door gebruikers' verzoeken ( "Invisible Internet").
Het internet geeft geen enkele aanwijsbare orde, classificatie, categorisatie. In tegenstelling tot de "klassieke" bibliotheken, niemand heeft uitgevonden catalogiseren een standaard (niet vergeten Dewey?). Dit is dus nodig dat het is verbazingwekkend dat het niet is nog niet uitgevonden. Sommige sites inderdaad van toepassing is de Dewey Decimale Syatem (Suite101). Andere standaard naar een directory-structuur (Open Directory, Yahoo!, Look Smart en anderen).
Had een dergelijke norm bestond (een overeengekomen numerieke rangschikking methode) - elke site zou hebben zichzelf ingedeeld. Sites zou een belang hebben om dit te doen om hun penetratiegraad en hun zichtbaarheid. Dit, uiteraard, zou zijn opgeheven op de noodzaak van de huidige clunky, onvolledig en (zeer) inefficiënt zoekmachines.
Een site waarvan het nummer begint met 900 worden onmiddellijk geïdentificeerd als de behandeling van de geschiedenis en meerdere indeling zal worden aangemoedigd om fijnere dwarsdoorsneden te ontworstelen. Een voorbeeld van zo een opkomende technologie van eigen classificatie "en" zelf-publicatie "(hoewel beperkt tot wetenschappelijke middelen) is de" Academische Resource kanaal "door Scindex.
Gebruikers zijn niet verplicht om te onthouden riem van nummers. Toekomstige browsers wordt vergelijken met catalogi, heel graag de toepassingen gebruikt in moderne bibliotheken. Vergelijk dit utopie om de huidige dystopy. Gebruikers strijd met de riem van irrelevant materiaal om eindelijk tot een gedeeltelijke en teleurstellend bestemming. Tegelijkertijd is er waarschijnlijk zijn websites die exact overeenkomen met de armen wat u nodig hebt. Maar wat nu bepalend voor de kans op een gelukkige ontmoeting tussen gebruiker en inhoud - zijn de grillen van de specifieke zoekmachine gebruikt en dingen als meta-tags, koppen, een vergoeding betaald, of het recht opening zinnen.
2. Screen versus Page
De computer scherm, omdat van fysieke beperkingen (grootte, het feit dat het moet scrollende) niet effectief concurreren met de afgedrukte pagina. Dit laatste is nog steeds de meest ingenieuze medium nog niet uitgevonden voor de opslag en het vrijkomen van tekstuele informatie. Toegegeven: een computer scherm is beter de nadruk op discrete eenheden van informatie. Dus, dit trekt de Batlle lijnen: structuren (gedrukte pagina's) versus eenheden (scherm), de continue en gemakkelijk omkeerbaar versus de discrete.
De oplossing is een efficiënte manier te vertalen computer screens voor drukwerk. Het is moeilijk te geloven, maar niet zoiets bestaat. Computer-schermen zijn nog steeds vijandig tegenover off-line afdrukken. Met andere woorden: als een gebruiker kopieën van informatie van het internet tot zijn Word processor (of vice versa, wat dat betreft) - hij eindigt met een gefragmenteerde, gevulde vuilniszakken en niet-esthetische document.
Zeer weinig site ontwikkelaars proberen daar iets aan te doen - nog minder kans van slagen.
3. Het internet en de CD-ROM
Een van de grootste fouten van content leveranciers is dat ze zich niet mengen inhoud of over een "statisch-dynamische interactie".
Het internet kan nu gemakkelijk een wisselwerking met andere media (vooral met audio-cd's en cd-roms) - zelfs als de gebruiker surft.
Voorbeelden in overvloed:
Een winkel-catalogus kunnen worden verdeeld over een cd-rom per post. De internet-site geven de gebruiker de mogelijkheid om een product bestelt eerder gekozen uit de catalogus, terwijl de off-line. The catalogue could also be updated through the site (as is done with CD-ROM encyclopedias).
The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of times faster than the access to a site using a dial up connection) and a data storage capacity tens of times bigger than the average website.
Another example: a CD-ROM can be distributed, containing hundreds of advertisements. The consumer will select the ad that he wants to see and will connect to the Internet to view a relevant video.
He could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference) with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad, about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such as the Britannica, Encarta, Grolier) already contain hyperlinks which carry the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
But CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium. This industry chose to emphasize the wrong things. Storage capacity increased exponentially and, within a year, desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be common. Moreover, the Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer - will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction of radio, statellite, ADSL broadband services, cable modems and compression methods - video (on demand), audio and data will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There is a long time lapse between the moment they are purchased and the moment the first data become accessible to the user. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these oldest of media is instantly available to the user and allows for easy and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous, user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to data. So does the discman or the MP3-man. This cannot be said of the CD-ROM. By tying its future to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion (with the possible exception of reference material).
4. On-line Reference Libraries
These already exist. A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia Britannica exemplifies some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities:
Each entry is hyperlinked to sites on the Internet which deal with the same subject matter. The sites are carefully screened (though more detailed descriptions of each site should be available - they could be prepared either by the staff of the encyclopaedia or by the site owner). Links are available to data in various forms, including audio and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to CD-ROMs.
This is a new conception of a knowledge centre - not just an assortment of material. It is modular, can be added on and subtracted from. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" service could be very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information". The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative Digital Reference Service).
5. The Feedback Option
Hard to believe, but very few sites encourage their guests to express an opinion about the site, its contents and its aesthetics. This indicates an ossified mode of thinking about the most dynamic mass medium ever created, the only interactive mass medium yet. Each site must absolutely contain feedback and rating questionnaires. It has the side benefit of creating a database of the visitors to the site.
Moreover, each site can easily become a "knowledge centre".
Let us consider a site dedicated to advertising and marketing:
It can contain feedback questionnaires (what do you think about the site, suggestions for improvement, mailto and leave message facilities, etc.)
It can contain rating questionnaires (rate these ads, these TV or radio shows, these advertising campaigns).
It can allocate some space to clients to create their home pages in (these home pages could lead to their sites, to other sites, to other sections of the host site - and, in any case, will serve as a display of the creative talent of the site owners). This will give the site owners a picture of the distribution of the areas of interest of the visitors to the site.
The site can include statistical, tracking and counter software.
Such a site can refer to hundreds of useful shareware applications (which deal with different aspects of advertising and marketing, for instance). Developers of applications will be able to use the site to promote their products. Other practical applications could also be referred to from - or reside on - the site (browsers, games, search engines).
And all this can be organized in a portal structure (for instance, by adopting the open software of the Open Directory Project).
6. Internet Derived CD-ROMS
The Internet is an enormous reservoir of freely available, public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap CD-ROMs. Each such CD-ROM can contain:
Addresses of web sites specific to the subject matter
The first pages of each of these sites
Hyperlinks to each of the sites
A browser
Access to all the important search engines
Recommended search strings (it is extremely difficult to formulate a successful search in the Internet, it takes expertise. "Ready-made searches" will be a hit in the future, as the number of sites grows)
A dictionary of professional terms, a speller and a thesaurus
A list of general reference sites
Shareware specific to the field
7. Publishing
The Internet is the world's largest "publisher", by far. It "publishes" FAQs (Frequent Answers and Questions regarding almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic versions of magazines, not a very profitable pursuit), the electronic versions of dailies (together with on-line news and information services), reference and other e-books, monographs, articles and minutes of discussions ("threads"), among other types of material.
Publishing an e-zine has a few advantages: it promotes the sales of the printed edition, it helps to sign on subscribers and it leads to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see next section) saves the need to file back issues, the space required to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription: electronic (mainly for the archival value and the ability to hyperlink to additional information) and printed (easier to browse current issue).
The electronic daily presents other advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers. The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content can be instantly updated and immediacy has its premium (remember the Lewinsky affair?).
Strangely, this (conventional) field was the first to develop a "virtual reality" facet. There are virtual "magazine stalls". They look exactly like the real thing and the user can buy a paper using his mouse.
Specialty hand held devices already allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000 print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device. Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well (the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's MS-Reader).
Broadly, e-books are treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books) by other means
or as
A whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books - then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior to the price, comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
Hyperlinks within the e-book and without it - to web content, reference works, etc.
Embedded instant shopping and ordering links
Divergent, user-interactive, decision driven plotlines
Interaction with other e-books (using a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring
Interaction with other e-books - gaming and community activities
Automatically or periodically updated content
Multimedia
Database, Favourites and History Maintenance (reading habits, shopping habits, interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more)
Automatic and embedded audio conversion and translation capabilities
Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking capabilities
The technology is still not fully there. Wars rage in both the wireless and the ebook realms. Platforms compete. Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it the e-book of the future.
8. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible - the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory. One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines (Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
The Internet as a Collective Brain
Drawing a comparison from the development of a human baby - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally, pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is accessible in a few ways, it contains a memory function, it is multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy to adulthood) - amounts to perusing the future of the Net itself.
1. The Collective Computer
To carry the metaphor of "a collective brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place in the Internet, rather than inside the end-user's hardware (the same way that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops will receive the results and communicate with the Net to receive additional clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from their environment (mostly, from the user).
This is part fo the philosophy of the JAVA programming language. It deals with applets - small bits of software - and links different computer platforms by means of software.
Put differently:
Future servers will contain not only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software, broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all that it is not with his own software that he is working (the question of ownership will be very blurred in such a world). This technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals). Applications are already offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists put the combined power of the computers linked to the internet at any given moment to perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data and solve complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
2. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches of a bank, daughter companies, a sales force). Many LANs are wireless.
The intranet / extranet and wireless LANs will be the winners. They will gradually eliminate both fixed line LANs and WANs. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to all the members of an organization.Sophisticated firewall security application protects the privacy and confidentiality of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy hackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and which enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it and to participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
By the year 2002, a standard intranet interface will emerge. This will be facilitated by the opening up of the TCP/IP communication architecture and its availability to PCs. A billion USD will go just to finance intranet servers - or, at least, this is the median forecast.
The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to one of two obstacles to the institution of the Intranet. The second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet phones come out (slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.
At the end of 1997, there were 10 web servers per every other type of server in organizations. The sale of intranet related software was projected to multiply by 16 (to 8 billion USD) by the year 1999.
One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence. This notion has its charm. Consider a newspaper: it can give access to all the materials which were discarded by the editors. Some news are fit to print - yet are discarded because of space limitations. Still, someone is bound to be interested. It costs the newspaper close to nothing (the material is, normally, already computer-resident) - and it might even generate added circulation and income. It can be even conceived as an "underground, non-commercial, alternative" newspaper for a wholly different readership.
The above is but one example of the possible use of the intranet to communicate with the organization's consumer base.
3. Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail possibilities) is eroding traditional mail. The market share of the post office in conveying messages by regular mail has dwindled from 77% to 62% (1995). E-mail has expanded to capture 36% (up from 19%).
90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet. Microsoft continues to incorporate previously independent applications in its browsers - a behaviour which led to the 1999 anti-trust lawsuit against it.
The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel's, Vocaltec's, Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
This beats regular phones.
The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped into the software and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.
4. E-cash
In 1996, the four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom by a factor of 50 to 25 billion USD. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. Dedicated visitors will not be deterred by such trifles.
5. The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows simultaneous communication between an almost unlimited number of users. This is coupled with the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files.
This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians will be able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies will be able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interactive mode;
Cinema and TV films will be produced from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through the net.
These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community". Locations in space and time will no longer hinder a collaboration in a team: be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or for the provision of services (a virtual law firm or accounting office, a virtual consultancy network).
Two on going developments are the virtual mall and the virtual catalogue.
There are well over 300 active virtual malls in the Internet. They were frequented by 32.5 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services in 1998. The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall is a computer "space" (pages) in the internet, wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes a gate into the store and looks through its offering, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the product and waits for it to arrive by mail. The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads.
Yet, slow communications and limited bandwidth - constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once solved - intellectual property will be sold directly from the net, on-line. Until such time, the intervention of the Post Office is still required. So, then virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time.
The user will enter the site and there delineate his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue will be immediately generated for him.
From then on, the history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires will be accumulated and added to a database.
Each catalogue generated for him will come replete with order forms. Once the user concluded his purchases, his profile will be updated.
There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal ones. Big retail stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to arrive. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data.
The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons and the new generation (NetBot) cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.
In the future, these agents will refer also to real life retail chains and issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence). This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
6. Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They can be frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and be always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of interactive news. A special "corner" in the site will be open to updates posted by the public (the equivalent of press releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet and be displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a square in a special location. The contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coveage.
Terra Internetica - Internet, an Unknown Continent
This is an unconventional way to look at the Internet. Laymen and experts alike talk about "sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet will have its own real estate developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the Internet counterparts will derive their profits from the tenants (the content).
Two examples:
A few companies bought "Internet Space" (pages, domain names, portals), developed it and make commercial use of it by:
renting it out
constructing infrastructure and selling it
providing an intelligent gateway, entry point to the rest of the internet
or selling advertising space which subsidizes the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others).
Cybersquatting (purchasing specific domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling the domain name to an interested party
Internet Space can be easily purchased or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected - for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
At the beginning, only members of the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs, gamblers) invest in a new invention. The invention of a new communications technology is mostly accompanied by devastating silence.
No one knows to say what are the optimal uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way for old and tried modes of doing the same thing (so why assume the risk?)
These criticisms are usually founded:
To start with, there is, indeed, no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited, it was horribly user unfriendly.
It suffered from faulty design, absent user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was unique to the new invention (not portable).
It reduced labour mobility and limited one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among those assigned to tame the new beast.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning, as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. As the presence of a keyboard was detected and as the professional horizon cleared it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and its existence justified solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real application and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly flexibility and speed). Still, it was more (speed) of the same. A quicker ruler or pen and paper. What was the difference between this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialities. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer's first important breakthrough. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different - the multimedia and the Internet have made it qualitatively superior, actually, sui generis, unique.
This, precisely, is the ghost haunting the Internet:
It has been invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: more, stronger, higher. Not: new, unprecedented, non-existent. To improve - not to invent. They stumbled across the Internet - it invented itself despite its own creators.
Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages.
These all are attuned to the user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison's Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble: the improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what the manufacturers claimed was better quality Bach. A better argument was the longer life of the software (though contrasted with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing the consumers.
Every medium is first controlled by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness the initial confusion concerning copyrighted software and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. Recall the sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays.
But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge.
This distinction is important. While in real life it is possible to sell an undeveloped plot of land - no one will buy "pages". The supply of these is unlimited - their scarcity (and, therefore, their virtual price) is zero.
The second example involves the utilization of a site - rather than its mere availability.
A developer could open a site wherein first time authors will be able to publish their first manuscript - for a fee. Evidently, such a fee will be a fraction of what it would take to publish a "real life" book. The author could collect money for any downloading of his book - and split it with the site developer. The potential buyers will be provided with access to the contents and to a chapter of the books. This is currently being done by a few fledgling firms but a full scale publishing industry has not yet developed.
The Life of a Medium The internet is simply the latest in a series of networks which revolutionized our lives. A century before the internet, the telegraph, the railways, the radio and the telephone have been similarly heralded as "global" and transforming.
Every medium of communications goes through the same evolutionary cycle:
Anarchy
The Public Phase
At this stage, the medium and the resources attached to it are very cheap, accessible, under no regulatory constraints. The public sector steps in: higher education institutions, religious institutions, government, not for profit organizations, non governmental organizations (NGOs), trade unions, etc. Bedevilled by limited financial resources, they regard the new medium as a cost effective way of disseminating their messages.
The Internet was not exempt from this phase which ended only a few years ago. It started with a complete computer anarchy manifested in ad hoc networks, local networks, networks of organizations (mainly universities and organs of the government such as DARPA, a part of the defence establishment, in the USA). Non commercial entities jumped on the bandwagon and started sewing these networks together (an activity fully subsidized by government funds). The result was a globe encompassing network of academic institutions. The American Pentagon established the network of all networks, the ARPANET. Other government departments joined the fray, headed by the National Science Foundation (NSF) which withdrew only lately from the Internet.
The Internet (with a different name) became semi-public property - with access granted to the chosen few.
Radio took precisely this course. Radio transmissions started in the USA in 1920. Those were anarchic broadcasts with no discernible regularity. Non commercial organizations and not for profit organizations began their own broadcasts and even created radio broadcasting infrastructure (albeit of the cheap and local kind) dedicated to their audiences. Trade unions, certain educational institutions and religious groups commenced "public radio" broadcasts.
The Commercial Phase
When the users (eg, listeners in the case of the radio, or owners of PCs and modems in the example of the Internet) reach a critical mass - the business sector is alerted. In the name of capitalist ideology (another religion, really) it demands "privatization" of the medium. This harps on very sensitive strings in every Western soul: the efficient allocation of resources which is the result of competition, corruption and inefficiency naturally associated with the public sector ("Other People's Money" - OPM), the ulterior motives of members of the ruling political echelons (the infamous American Paranoia), a lack of variety and of catering to the tastes and interests of certain audiences, the equation private enterprise = democracy and more.
The end result is the same: the private sector takes over the medium from "below" (makes offers to the owners or operators of the medium - that they cannot possibly refuse) - or from "above" (successful lobbying in the corridors of power leads to the appropriate legislation and the medium is "privatized").
Every privatization - especially that of a medium - provokes public opposition. There are (usually founded) suspicions that the interests of the public were compromised and sacrificed on the altar of commercialization and rating. Fears of monopolization and cartelization of the medium are evoked - and justified, in due time. Otherwise, there is fear of the concentration of control of the medium in a few hands. All these things do happen - but the pace is so slow that the initial fears are forgotten and public attention reverts to fresher issues.
A new Communications Act was legislated in the USA in 1934. It was meant to transform radio frequencies into a national resource to be sold to the private sector which will use it to transmit radio signals to receivers. In other words: the radio was passed on to private and commercial hands. Public radio was doomed to be marginalized.
The American administration withdrew from its last major involvement in the Internet in April 1995, when the NSF ceased to finance some of the networks and, thus, privatized its hitherto heavy involvement in the net.
A new Communications Act was legislated in 1996. It permitted "organized anarchy". It allowed media operators to invade each other's territories.
Phone companies will be allowed to transmit video and cable companies will be allowed to transmit telephony, for instance. This is all phased over a long period of time - still, it is a revolution whose magnitude is difficult to gauge and whose consequences defy imagination. It carries an equally momentous price tag - official censorship. "Voluntary censorship", to be sure, somewhat toothless standardization and enforcement authorities, to be sure - still, a censorship with its own institutions to boot. The private sector reacted by threatening litigation - but, beneath the surface it is caving in to pressure and temptation, constructing its own censorship codes both in the cable and in the internet media.
Institutionalization
This phase is the next in the Internet's history, though, it seems, unbeknownst to it.
It is characterized by enhanced activities of legislation. Legislators, on all levels, discover the medium and lurch at it passionately. Resources which were considered "free", suddenly are transformed to "national treasures not to be dispensed with cheaply, casually and with frivolity".
It is conceivable that certain parts of the Internet will be "nationalized" (for instance, in the form of a licensing requirement) and tendered to the private sector. Legislation will be enacted which will deal with permitted and disallowed content (obscenity? incitement? racial or gender bias?)
No medium in the USA (not to mention the wide world) has eschewed such legislation. There are sure to be demands to allocate time (or space, or software, or content, or hardware) to "minorities", to "public affairs", to "community business". This is a tax that the business sector will have to pay to fend off the eager legislator and his nuisance value.
All this is bound to lead to a monopolization of hosts and servers. The important broadcast channels will diminish in number and be subjected to severe content restrictions. Sites which will not succumb to these requirements - will be deleted or neutralized. Content guidelines (euphemism for censorship) exist, even as we write, in all major content providers (CompuServe, AOL, Geocities, Tripod, Prodigy).
The Bloodbath
This is the phase of consolidation. The number of players is severely reduced. The number of browser types will be limited to 2-3 (Netscape, Microsoft and which else?). Networks will merge to form privately owned mega-networks. Servers will merge to form hyper-servers run on supercomputers in "server farms". The number of ISPs will be considerably cut.
50 companies ruled the greater part of the media markets in the USA in 1983. The number in 1995 was 18. At the end of the century they will number 6.
This is the stage when companies - fighting for financial survival - strive to acquire as many users/listeners/viewers as possible. The programming is shallowed to the lowest (and widest) common denominator. Shallow programming dominates as long as the bloodbath proceeds.
From Rags to Riches
Tough competition produces four processes:
1. A Major Drop in Hardware Prices
This happens in every medium but it doubly applies to a computer-dependent medium, such as the Internet.
Computer technology seems to abide by "Moore's Law" which says that the number of transistors which can be put on a chip doubles itself every 18 months. As a result of this miniaturization, computing power quadruples every 18 months and an exponential series ensues. Organic-biological-DNA computers, quantum computers, chaos computers - prompted by vast profits and spawned by inventive genius will ensure the longevity and continued applicability of Moore's Law.
The Internet is also subject to "Metcalf's Law".
It says that when we connect N computers to a network - we get an increase of N to the second power in its computing / processing power. And these N computers are more powerful every year, according to Moore's Law.
The growth of computing powers in networks is a multiple of the effects of the two laws. More and more computers with ever increasing computing power get connected and create an exponential 16 times growth in the network's computing power every 18 months.
2. Free Availability of Software and Connection
This is prevalent in the Net where even potentially commercial software can be downloaded for free. In many countries television viewers still pay for television broadcasts - but in the USA and many other countries in the West, the basic package of television channels comes free of charge.
As users / consumers form a habit of using (or consuming) the software - it is commercialized and begins to carry a price tag. This is what happened with the advent of cable television: contents are sold for subscription and usage (Pay Per View - PPV) fees.
Gradually, this is what will happen to most of the sites and software on the Net. Those which survive will begin to collect usage fees, access fees, subscription fees, downloading fees and other, appropriately named, fees. These fees are bound to be low - but it is the principle that counts. Even a few cents per transaction will accumulate to hefty sums with the traffic which will characterize the Net (or, at least its more popular locales).
Adverising revenues will allow ISPs to offer free communication and storage volume. Gradually, connect time charges imposed by the phone companies will be eroded by tough competition from the likes of the cable companies. Accessing the internet might well be free of all charges in 10 years time.
3. Increased User Friendliness
As long as the computer is less user friendly and less reliable (predictable) than television - less of a black box - its potential (and its future) is limited. Television attracts 3.5 billion users daily. The Internet will attract - under the most exuberant scenario - less than one tenth of this number of people. The only reasons for this disparity are (the lack of) user friendliness and reliability. Even browsers, among the most user friendly applications ever - are not sufficiently so. The user still needs to know how to use a keyboard and must possess some basic acquaintance with the operating system.
The more mature the medium, the more friendly it becomes. Finally, it will be operated using speech or common language. There will be room left for user "hunches" and built in flexible responses.
4. Social Taxes
Sooner or later, the business sector has to mollify the God of public opinion by offerings of political and social nature. The Internet is an affluent, educated, yuppie medium. It necessitates a control of the English language, live interest in information and its various uses (scientific, commercial, other), a lot of resources (free time, money to invest in hardware, software and connect time). It empowers - and thus deepens the divide between the haves and have-nots, the knowing and the ignorant, the computer illiterate.
In short: the Internet is an elitist medium. Publicly, this is an unhealthy posture. "Internetophobia" is already discernible. People (and politicians) talk about how unsafe the Internet is and about its possible uses for racial, sexist and pornographic purposes. The wider public is in a state of awe.
So, site builders and owners will do well to begin to improve their image: provide free access to schools and community centres, bankroll internet literacy classes, freely distribute contents and software to educational institutions, collaborate with researchers and social scientists and engineers.
In short: encourage the view that the Internet is a medium catering to the needs of the community and the underprivileged, a mostly altruist endeavour. This also happens to make good business sense by educating a future generation of users. He who visited a site when a student, free of charge - will pay to do so when made an executive. Such a user will also pass on the information within and without his organization. This is called media exposure.
The future will, no doubt, witness public Internet terminals, subsidized ISP accounts, free Internet classes and an alternative "non-commercial, public" approach to the Net.
The Internet: Medium or Chaos?
There has never been a medium like the Internet. The way it has formed, the way it was (not) managed, its hardware-software-communications specifications - are all unique.
No Government
The Internet has no central (or even decentralized) structure. In reality, it hardly has a structure at all. It is a collection of 16 million computers (end 1996) connected through thousands of networks. There are organizations which purport to set Internet standards (like the aforementioned ISOC, or the domain setting ICANN) - but they are all voluntary organizations, with no binding legal, enforcement, or adjudication powers. The result is often mayhem.
Many erroneously call the Internet the first democratic medium. Yet, it hardly qualifies as a medium and by no stretch of terminology is it democratic. Democracy has institutions, hierarchies, order. The Internet has none of these things. There are some vague understandings as to what is and is not allowed. This is a "code of honour" (more reminiscent of the Sicilian Mob than of the British Parliament, let's say). Violations are punished by excommunication (of the violating site or person).
The Internet has culture - but no education. Freedom of Speech is entrenched. Members of this virtual community react adversely to ideas of censorship, even when applied to hard core porno. In 1999, hackers hacked major government sites following an FBI initiative against hacking-related crimes. Government initiatives (in the USA, in France, the lawsuit against the General Manager of AOL in Germany) are acutely criticized. In the meantime, the spirit of the Internet prevails: the small man's medium. What seems to be emerging, though, is self censorship by content providers (such as AOL and CompuServe).
Independence
The Internet is not dependent upon a given hardware or software. True, it is accessible only through computers and there are dominant browsers.
But the Internet accommodates any digital (bit transfer) platform. Internet will be incorporated in the future into portable computers, palmtops, PDAs, mobile phones, cable television, telephones (with voice interface), home appliances and even wrist watches. It will be accessible to all, regardless of hardware and software.
The situation is, obviously, different with other media. There is standard hardware (the television set, the radio receiver, the digital print equipment). Data transfer modes are standardized as well. The only variable is the contents - and even this is standardized in an age of American cultural imperialism. Today, one can see the same television programs all over the globe, regardless of cultural or geographical differences.
Here is a reasonable prognosis for the Internet:
It will "broadcast" (it is, of course, a PULL medium, not a PUSH medium - see next chapter) to many kinds of hardware. Its functions will be controlled by 2-5 very common software applications. But it will differ from television in that contents will continue to be decentralized: every point on the Net is a potential producer of content at low cost. This is the equivalent of producing a talk show using a single home video camera. And the contents will remain varied.
Naturally, marketing content (sites) will remain an expensive art. Sites will also be richer or poorer, in accordance with the investment made in them.
Non Linearity and Functional Modularity
The Internet is the first medium in human history that is non-linear and totally modular.
A television program is broadcast from a transmitter, through the airwaves to a receiver (=the television set). The viewer sits opposite this receiver and passively watches. This is an entirely linear process. The Internet is different:
When communicating through the Internet, there is no way to predict how the information will reach its destination. The routing of information through the network is completely random, very much like the principle governing the telephony system (but on a global scale). The latter is not a point-to-point linear network. Rather, it is a network of networks. Our voice is transmitted back and forth inside a gigantic maze of copper wires and optic fibres. It seeps through any available wire - until it reaches its destination.
It is the same with the Internet.
Information is divided to packets. An address is attached to each packet and - using the TCP/IP data transfer protocol - is dispatched to roam this worldwide labyrinth. But the path from one neighbourhood of London to another may traverse Japan.
The really ingenious thing about the Internet is that each computer (each receiver or end user) indeed burdens the system by imposing on it its information needs (as is the case with other media) - but it also assists in the task of pushing information packets on to their destinations. It seems that this contribution to the system outweighs the burdens imposed upon it.
The network has a growth potential which is always bigger than the number of its users. It is as though television sets assisted in passing the signals received by them to other television sets. Every computer which is a member of the network is both a message (content) and a medium (active information channel), both a transmitter and a receiver. If 30% of all computers on the Net were to crash - there will be no operational impact (there is enormous built in redundancy). Obviously, some contents will no longer be available (information channels will be affected).
The interactivity of this medium is a guarantee against the monopolization of contents. Anyone with a thousand dollars can launch his/her own (reasonably sophisticated) site, accessible to all other Internet users. Space is available through home page providers.
The name of the game is no longer the production - it is the creative content (design), the content itself and, above all, the marketing of the site.
The Internet is an infinite and unlimited resource. This goes against the grain of the most basic economic concept (of scarcity). Each computer that joins the Internet strengthens it exponentially - and tens of thousands join daily. The Internet infrastructure (maybe with the exception of communication backbones) can accommodate an annual growth of 100% to the year 2020. It is the user who decides whether to increase the Internet's infrastructure by connecting his computer to it. By comparison: it is as though it were possible to produce and to broadcast radio programmes from every radio receiver. Each computer is a combination of studio and transmitter (on the Internet).
In reality, there is no other interactive medium except the Internet. Cable TV does not allow two-way data transfer (from user to cable operator). If the user wants to buy a product - he has to phone. Interactive television is an abject failure (the Sony and TCI experiments were terminated). This all is notwithstanding the combining of the Internet with satellite capabilities (VSAT) or with the revenant digital television.
The television screen is inferior when compared to the computer screen. Only the Internet is there as a true two-way possibility. The technological problems that besieged it are slowly dissipating.
The Internet allows for one-dimensional and bi - dimensional interactivity.
One-dimensional interactivity: fill in and dispatch a form, send and receive messages (through e-mail or v-mail).
Two-dimensional interactivity: to talk to someone while both parties work on an application, to see your conversant, to talk to him and to transfer documents to him for his perusal as the conversation continues apace.
This is no longer science fiction. In less than five years this will be as common as the telephone - and it will have a profound effect on the traditional services provided by the phone companies. Internet phones, Internet videophones - they will be serious competitors and the phone companies are likely to react once they begin to feel the heat. This will happen when the Internet will acquire black box features. Phone companies, software giants and cable TV operators are likely to end up owning big chunks of the lucrative future market of the Net.
The Solitary Medium
The Internet is NOT a popular medium. It is the medium of affluent executives who fully master the English language, as part of a wider general education.
Alternatively, it is the medium of academia (students, lecturers), or of children of the former, well-to-do group. In any case, it is not the medium of the "wide public". It is also a highly individualistic medium.
The Internet was an initiative of the DOD (Department of Defence in the USA). It was later "requisitioned" by the National science Fund (NSF) in the USA. This continuous involvement of the administration came to an end in 1995 when the medium was "privatized".
This "privatization" was a recognition of the civilian roots of the Internet. It was - and is still being - formed by millions of information-intoxicated users. They formed networks to exchange bits and pieces of mutual interest. Thus, as opposed to all other media, the Internet was not invented, nor was its market. The inventors of the telephone, the telegraph, the radio, the television and the compact disc - all invented previously non-existent markets for their products. It took time, effort and money to convince consumers that they needed these "gadgets".
By contrast, the Internet was invented by its own consumers and so was the market for it. Only when the latter was fully forged did producers and businessmen join in. Microsoft began to hesitantly test the internet waters only in 1995!
On Line Memories
The Internet is the only medium with online memory, very much like the human brain. The memories of these two - the Net and the Brain - are immediately accessible. In both, it is stored in sites and in both, it does not grow old or is eliminated. It is possible to find sites which commemorate events the same way that the human mind registers them. This is Net Memory. The history of a site can be reviewed. The Library of Congress stores the consecutive development phases of sites. The Internet is an amazing combination of data processing software, data, a record of all the activities which took place in connection with the data and the memory of these records. Only the human brain is recalled by these capacities: one language serves all these functions, the language of the neurones.
There is a much clearer distinction even in computers (not to mention more conventional media, such as television).
Raw English - the Language of Raw Materials
The following - apparently trivial - observation is critical:
All the other media provide us with processed, censored, "clean" content.
The Internet is a medium of raw materials, partly well organized (the rough equivalent of a newspaper) - and partly still in raw form, yesterday's supper.
This is a result of the immediate and absolute access afforded each user: access to programming and site publishing tools - as well as access to computer space on servers. This leads to varying degrees of quality of contents and content providers and this, in turn, prevents monopolization and cartelization of the information supply channels.
The users of the Internet are still undecided: do they prefer drafts or newspapers. They frequent well designed sites. There are even design competitions and awards. But they display a preference for sites that are constantly updated (ie closer in their nature to a raw material - rather than to a finished product). They prefer sites from which they can download material to quietly process at home, alone, on their PCs, at their leisure.
Even the concept of "interactivity" points at a preference for raw materials with which one can interact. For what is interactivity if not the active involvement of the user in the creation of content?
The Internet users love to be involved, to feel the power in their fingertips, they are all addicted to one form of power or another.
Similarly, a car completely automatically driven and navigated is not likely to sell well. Part of the experience of driving - the sensation of power ("power stirring") - is critical to the purchase decision.
It is not in vain that the metaphor for using the Internet is "surfing" (and not, let's say, browsing).
The problem is that the Internet is still predominantly an English language medium (though it is fast changing). It discriminates against those whose mother tongue is different. All software applications work best in English. Otherwise they have to be adapted and fitted with special fonts (Hebrew, Arabic, Japanese, Russian and Chinese - each present a different set of problems to overcome). This situation might change with the attainment of a critical mass of users (some say, 2 million per non-Anglophone country).
Comprehensive (Virtual) Reality
This is the first (though, probably, not the last) medium which allows the user to conduct his whole life within its boundaries.
Television presents a clear division: there is a passive viewer. His task is to absorb information and subject it to minimal processing. The Internet embodies a complete and comprehensive (virtual) reality, a full fledged alternative to real life.
The illusion is still in its infancy - and yet already powerful.
The user can talk to others, see them, listen to music, see video, purchase goods and services, play games (alone or with others scattered around the globe), converse with colleagues, or with users with the same hobbies and areas of interest, to play music together (separated by time and space).
And all this is very primitive. In ten years time, the Internet will offer its users the option of video conferencing (possibly, three dimensional, holographic). The participants' figures will be projected on big screens. Documents will be exchanged, personal notes, spreadsheets, secret counteroffers.
Virtual Reality games will become reality in less time. Special end-user equipment will make the player believe that he, actually, is part of the game (while still in his room). The player will be able to select an image borrowed from a database and it will represent him, seen by all the other players. Everyone will, thus, end up invading everyone else's private space - without encroaching on his privacy!
The Internet will be the medium of choice for phone and videophone communication (including conferencing).
Many mundane activities will be done through Internet: banking, shopping for standard items, etc.
The above are examples to the Internet's power and ability to replace our reality in due time. A world out there will continue to exist - but, more and more we will interact with it through the enchanted interface of the Net.
A Brave New Net
The future of a medium in the making is difficult to predict. Suffice it to mention the ridiculous prognoses which accompanied the PC (it is nothing but a gaming gadget, it is a replacement for the electric typewriter, will be used only by business). The telephone also had its share of ludicrous statements: no one - claimed the "experts" would like to avoid eye contact while talking. Or television: only the Nazi regime seemed to have fully grasped its potential (in the Berlin 1936 Olympics). And Bill Gates thought that the internet has a very limited future as late as 1995!!!
Still, this medium has a few characteristics which differentiate it from all its predecessors. Were these traits to be continuously and creatively exploited - a few statements can be made about the future of the Net with relative assurance.
Time and Space Independence
This is the first medium in history which does not require the simultaneous presence of people in space-time in order to facilitate the transfer of information. Television requires the existence of studio technicians, narrators and others in the transmitting side - and the availability of a viewer in the receiving side. The phone is dependent on the existence of two or more parties simultaneously.
With time, tools to bridge the time gap between transmitter and receiver were developed. The answering machine and the video cassette recorder both accumulate information sent by a transmitter - and release it to a receiver in a different space and time. But they are discrete, their storage volume is limited and they do not allow for interaction with the transmitter.
The Internet does not have these handicaps.
It facilitates the formation of "virtual organizations / institutions / businesses/ communities". These are groups of users that communicate in different points in space and time, united by a common goal or interest.
A few examples:
The Virtual Advertising Agency
A budget executive from the USA will manage the account of a hi-tech firm based in Sydney. He will work with technical experts from Israel and with a French graphics office. They will all file their work (through the intranet) in the Net, to be studied by the other members of this virtual group. These will enter the right site after clearing a firewall security software. They will all be engaged in flexiwork (flexible working times) and work from their homes or offices, as they please. Obviously, they will all abide by a general schedule.
They will exchange audio files (the jingle, for instance), graphics, video, colour photographs and text. They will comment on each other's work and make suggestions using e-mail. The client will witness the whole creative process and will be able to contribute to it. There is no technological obstacle preventing the participation of the client's clients, as well.
Virtual Rock'n'Roll
It is difficult to imagine that "virtual performances will replace real life ones.
The mass rock concert has its own inimitable sounds, palette and smells. But a virtual production of a record is on the cards and it is tens of percents cheaper than a normal production. Again, the participants will interact through the Intranet. They will swap notes, play their own instruments, make comments by e-mail, play together using an appropriate software. If one of them is grabbed by inspiration in the middle of (his) night, he will be able to preserve and pass on his ideas through the Net. The creative process will be aided by novel applications which enable the simultaneous transfer of sound over the Net. The processes which are already digitized (the mix, for one) will pose no problem to a digitized medium. Other applications will let the users listen to the final versions and even ask the public for his preview opinion.
Thus, even creative processes which are perceived as demanding human presence - will no longer do so with the advent of the Net.
Perhaps it is easier to understand a Virtual Law Firm or Virtual Accountants Office.
In the extreme, such a firm will not have physical offices, at all. The only address will be an e-mail address. Dozens of lawyers from all over the world with hundreds of specialities will be partners in such an office. Such an office will be truly multinational and multidisciplinary. It will be fast and effective because its members will electronically swap information (precedents, decrees, laws, opinions, research and plain ideas or professional experience).
It will be able to service clients in every corner of the globe. It will involve the transfer of audio files (NetPhones), text, graphics and video (crucial in certain types of litigation). Today, such information is sent by post and messenger services. Whenever different types of information are to be analysed - a physical meeting is a must. Otherwise, each type of information has to be transferred separately, using unique equipment for each one.
Simultaneity and interactivity - this will be the name of the game in the Internet. The professional term is "Coopetition" (cooperation between potential competitors, using the Internet).
Other possibilities: a virtual production of a movie, a virtual research and development team, a virtual sales force. The harbingers of the virtual university, the virtual classroom and the virtual (or distance) medical centre are here.
The Internet - Mother of all Media
The Internet is the technological solution to the mythological "home entertainment centre" debate.
It is almost universally agreed that, in the future, a typical home will have one apparatus which will give it access to all types of information. Even the most daring did not talk about simultaneous access to all the types of information or about full interactivity.
The Internet will offer exactly this: access to every conceivable type of information simultaneously , the ability to process them at the same time and full interactivity. The future image of this home centre is fairly clear - it is the timing that is not. It is all dependent on the availability of a wide (information) band - through which it will be possible to transfer big amounts of data at high speeds, using the same communications line. Fast modems were coupled with optic fibres and with faulty planning and vision of future needs. The cable television industry, for instance, is totally technologically unprepared for the age of interactivity. This is only partly the result of unwise, restrictive, legislation which prohibits data vendors from stepping on each others' toes. Phone companies were not permitted to provide Internet services or to transfer video through their wires - and cable companies were not allowed to transmit phone calls.
It is a question of time until these fossilized remains are removed by the almighty hand of the market. When this happens, the home centre is likely to look like this:
A central computer attached to a big screen divided to windows. Television is broadcast on one window. A software application is running on another. This could be an application connected to the television program (deriving data from it, recording it, collating it with pertinent data it picks out of databases). It could be an independent application (a computer game).
Updates from the New York Stock exchange flash at the corner of the screen and an icon blinks to signal the occurrence of a significant economic event.
A click of the mouse (?) and the news flash is converted to a voice message. Another click and your broker is on the InternetPhone (possibly seen in a third window on the screen). You talk, you send him a fax containing instructions and you compare notes. The fax was printed on a word processing application which opened up in yet another window.
Many believe that communication with the future generation of computers will be voice communication. This is difficult to believe. It is weird to talk to a machine (especially in the presence of other humans). We are seriously inhibited this way. Moreover, voice will interrupt other people's work or pleasure. It is also close to impossible to develop an efficient voice recognition software. Not to mention mishaps such as accidental activation.
The Friendly Internet
The Internet will not escape the processes experienced by all other media.
It will become easy to operate, user-friendly, in professional parlance.
It requires too much specialized information. It is not accessible to those who lack basic hardware and (Windows) software concepts.
Alas, most of the population falls into the latter category. Only 30 million "Windows" operating systems were sold worldwide at the end of 1996. Even if this constitutes 20% of all the copies (the rest being pirated versions) - it still represents less than 3% of the population of the world. And this, needless to say, is the world's most popular software (following the DOS operating system).
The Internet must rely on something completely different. It must have sophisticated, transparent-to-the-user search engines to guide to the cavernous chaotic libraries which will typify it. The search engines must include complex decision making algorithms. They must understand common languages and respond in mundane speech. They will be efficient and incredibly fast because they will form their own search strategy (supplanting the user's faulty use of syntax).
These engines, replete with smart agents will refer the user to additional data, to cultural products which reflect the user's history of preferences (or pronounced preferences expressed in answers to feedback questionnaires). All the decisions and activities of the user will be stored in the memory of his search engine and assist it in designing its decision making trees. The engine will become an electronic friend, advise the user, even on professional matters.
Cease-Fire
The cessation of hostilities between the Internet and some off-the-shelf software applications heralds the commencement of the integration between the desktop computer and the Net. This is a small step for the user - and a big one for humanity. The animosity which prevailed until recently between the UNIX systems and the HTML language and between most of the standard applications (headed by the Word Processors) - has officially ended with the introduction of Office 97 which incorporates full HTML capabilities. With the Office 2000 products, the distinctions between a web computing environment and a PC computing one - have all but vanished. Browsers can replace operating systems, word processors can browse, download and upload - the PC has finally been entirely absorbed by its offspring, the internet.
The Portable Document Format (PDF) enables the user to work the Internet off-line. In other words: text files will be loaded to word processors and edited off-line. The same applies to other types of files (audio, video).
Downloading time will be speeded up (today, it takes so long to download an audio or video file that, many times, it is impracticable).
This is not a trivial matter. The ability to switch between on-line and off-line states and to continue the work, uninterrupted - this ability means the integration of the PC in the Internet.
There are two competing views concerning the future of computer hardware and both of them acknowledge the importance of the Internet.
Bill Gates - Microsoft's legendary boss - says that the PC will continue to advance and strengthen its processing and computing powers. The Internet will be just another tool available through telecommunications, rather than through the ownership of hard copies of software and data. The Internet is perceived to be a tremendous external database, available for processing by tomorrow's desktops. This view is lately being gradually reversed in view of the incredible vitality and powers of the Internet.
Gates is converging on the worldview held by Sun Microsystems.
The future desktop will be a terminal, albeit powerful and with considerable processing, computing and communications capabilities. The name of the game will be the Internet itself. The terminal will access Internet databases (containing raw or processed data) and satisfy its information needs.
This terminal - equipped with languages the likes of Java - will get into libraries of software applications. It will make use of components of different applications as the needs arise. When finished using the component, the terminal will "return" it to the virtual "shelf" until the next time it is needed.
This will minimize memory resources in the desktop.
The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle.
Tomorrow's computer will be a home entertainment centre. No consumer will accept total dependence on telecommunications and on the Net. They will all ask for processing and computing powers at their fingertips, a-la Bill Gates.
But tomorrow's computer will also function as a terminal, when needed: when data retrieving or even when using NON standard software applications. Why purchase rarely used, expensive applications - when they are available, for a fraction of the cost, on the Net?
In other words: no consumer will subjugate his frequent word processing needs to the whims of the local phone company, or to those of the site operator. That is why every desktop is still likely to be include a hard (or optical)-disk-resident word processing software. But very few will by CAD-CAM, animation, graphics, or publishing software which they are likely to use infrequently. Instead, they will access these applications, which will be resident in the Net, use those parts that are needed. This is usage tailored to the client's needs. This is also the integration of a desktop (not of a terminal) with the Net.
Decentralized Lack of Planning
The course adopted by content creators (producers) in the last few years proves the maxim that it is easy to repeat mistakes and difficult to derive lessons from them. Content producers are constantly buying channels to transfer their contents. This is a mistake. A careful study of the history of successful media (eg, television) points to a clear pattern:
Content producers do not grant life-long exclusivity to any single channel. Especially not by buying into it. They prefer to contract for a limited time with content providers (their broadcast channels). They work with all of them, sometimes simultaneously.
In the future, the same content will be sold on different sites or networks, at different times. Sometimes it will be found |
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