| | 인터넷 : 매체를하거나 메시지를
그물의 상태를 인터넷의 미래에 대해 중간보고 인터넷에 참여하는 사람을 구성? 사용자 - 그것에 연결된 그물과 상호 작용
통신 회선과 통신 장비
the 중개인 (예 : - 라인의 공급 업체에 정보를하거나 액세스를 제공).
하드웨어 제조 업체
소프트웨어를 저자와 제조 업체 (브라우저, 사이트 개발 도구, 특정 응용 프로그램, 스마트 에이전트, 검색 엔진 및 기타).
"히치 하이 커를"(검색 엔진, 스마트 에이전트, 인공 지능 - 사랑 - 도구 등)
콘텐츠 생산자와 공급자
공급 업체의 재정 상태 (현재 - 기업과 기관 광고 돈을 현금으로 점차적으로 대체될)
이러한 각각의 구성 요소의 운명을 - 개별적으로 그리고 연대 - 인터넷에의 운명을 결정합니다.
첫 번째 단계의 컴퓨터는 인터넷의 역사는 마법사에 의해 주도되고있습니다. 따라서, 어떤 시도를하고 그 미래를 예측하기는 하드웨어와 소프트웨어 구성 요소를 주로 취급합니다.
미디어 전문가, 사회 학자, 심리학자, 광고 및 마케팅 임원은 공동 노력을 밖으로 왼쪽의 얼굴은 인터넷의 미래를 결정합니다.
콘텐츠가 우려만큼, 인터넷 매체로서 현재 정의된 수없습니다. 대로 작동하지 않습니다 1 - 오히려 그것은 아주 무질서 도서관, 대부분의 문장 아닌 - 고유 과대 망상증를 반영합니다. 그것은 궁극적인 자아도취적 경험을합니다. 출판사와 콘텐츠 어그리게이터의 강제 항목이 어두운 풍경이 변화지만.
텔레비전의 발명 이후로 아무것도되지 않은이가되기위한 매체로 인터넷을 부탁합니다.
인터넷에 3 개의 비슷한 고민을 때 스프링이 마음을 현재 상태 :
무정부 도서관
후자의 하루 a 신경망 또는 이에 상응하는 이전 네트워크 (전신, 전화, 철도)
새 대륙의
아주 유용하게 쓸 것을 증명하기 위해 이러한 은유 (심지어 기업 - 현명한). 그들은 우리를 정의하는 상업적인 기회를 허용 인터넷에 포함합니다.
그러나, 그들의 미래를 예측 실패에 많은 도움이 매체로 변환합니다.
발명은 어떻게 될 매체? 하나가 될 때 그것은 어떻게됩니까? 은 무엇입니까의 초기 기능을 분리하는 얇은 라인의 변형을 새로운 매체의 발명에서? 다른 말로하면 : 기술적 진보는 언제 출산 얘기의 일부를 새로운 매체?
이 작품은 인터넷의 이미지를 또 한 번 다루는 매체로 변환합니다.
인터넷은 언론의 역사에서 가장 이례적인 특성을합니다.
그것은 중앙 구조 또는 조직. 하드웨어와 소프트웨어가 독립적인합니다. 이 (거의) 입법이나 규제를받을 수없습니다. 고려의 예제를 인터넷에서 음악을 다운로드 -이게하는 행위를 동등 녹음 음악 (을 어기는 저작권법에 의해 보호됩니다)? 이것이 법적 전투의 남십자자리 다이아몬드 멀티미디어 (mp3 장치의 제조 업체는 리오), mp3.com, 냅스터와 음반 산업은 미국합니다.
선형은 인터넷의 데이터를 전송 채널이 없다 - 그들이 임의의. 대부분의 "브로드 캐스트"할 수없습니다 "접수"를 모두합니다. 그것은 좁은를 통해 이메일의 사용을 통해 narrowcasting - 메일 메일링리스트, 토론 그룹, 게시판, 민간 라디오 방송국, 그리고 채팅을합니다. 그리고 이것은 우리가 작은 부분을 인상적인 목록을 oddities합니다. 이러한 독특한 모양은 또한 매체로서 인터넷의 본질을합니다. 엽기 밖의 성장 뿌리 - 이건 수익률 이상으로 묶인 매체로서 과일합니다.
그래서 인터넷을 대표하는 어떤 비즈니스 기회가 있습니까?
난 그렇게 믿어에서 찾은 그들은이 두 개의 광범위한 카테고리 :
소프트웨어 및 하드웨어 관련하여 매체로서 인터넷의 미래
컨텐츠 작성, 관리 및 licencing
지도를 internetica 테라
의 사용자
얼마나 많은 인터넷 사용자들이있는가? 얼마나 많은 이들이 액세스를 웹 (월드 와이드 웹 - 오픈) 및 사용됩니까? 명백한 통계가없습니다. 그 사람에게 추정에 대한 답변 (을 포함하여 년에는 - 인터넷 사회) - 아주 부분과 편파 자원에 의존합니다. 다른 단지 허풍합니다.
그러나, 모든 사람의 동의가있는 것, 적어도 북미에서 1 억 활동 참여 (닐슨 및 상업 - 순수한보고).
미래는, 피할 수없는, 심지어 현재의 것보다 더 애매합니다. 권위있는 컨설팅 회사에서 10 년 동안 시간 예측 66,000,000 활성 사용자합니다. ibm envisages 7 억 사용자가합니다. 전투 식량이 더 겸손과 3 억합니다. 1999 년 말 130,000,000가 등록 (다만 필요하지 않게 활성) 사용자가합니다.
인터넷에 - 한 엘리트 주의자와 애국주의 매체
크기는 일반 사용자의 인터넷은 젊은 (30), 학력과 높은 수익을합니다. 의 비율을 교육을하고있는 사용자는 우물 -가 - 할 사이의 웹 그들의 비율은 3 배 이상의 높은 인구합니다. 이것은 그들의 아이들이 참여하기 때문에 빠르게 변화하는 수있습니다 (6 백만은 이미 인터넷에 액세스할 수의 끝에 1996 - 그리고이 한 덩어리가 끝날 즈음에 또 다른 2400 만 10 년). 이것으로 인해 변경될 수있습니다 대통령의 이니셔티브를 전용의 다리가 "디지털 나누기"(에서 앨 고어가 미국을 mahatir의 모하메드 말레이시아), 기업 largesse과 기관 참여 (예를 들어, 사회를 열어 동부 유럽, 마이크로 소프트의 미국). 이러한 노력은 확산을위한 다양한 혜택이 모든 권한을 적게 중 - 강력한 도구입니다. 모든 사용자의 50 % 미만의 약간은 남성의 60 %를하지만 그들의 활동에 대한 책임은 그물에 (로 측정한 트래픽).
여성을 제한하는 것 자체는 전자 우편 (이메일 - 메일)을 전자 제품 쇼핑의 상품 및 서비스, 이것은 빠르게 변화합니다. 남성 선호 정보, 경력을 요구 사항으로 인해 중 하나 또는 왜냐하면 지식은 힘!합니다.
대부분의 사용자들이의 "경험"다양한합니다. 그들은 사회적 변화와 혁신의 지도자합니다. 서식이 번식 대학, 이웃과 최신 유행 패션 직업합니다. 이것은 왜 어떤 궁금해 인터넷은 또 다른 유행뿐 아니라,이기는 하나 엄청나게 탄력 및 유망합니다.
대부분의 사용자들은 인터넷 액세스를 처음으로 - 그러나, 그들은 여전히 직장에서 선호에 접근할 수있습니다에서 그들의 고용주의 비용, 그리고이 비록 약간의 침식이 환경 설정은합니다. 대부분의 사용자들은 따라서 자연의 착취합니다. 그러나, 우리는 잊지 말아야가있는 3700 만 세대의 자기 - 고용하고 사진이 아마 어느 정도의 통계 왜곡합니다.
인터넷 - 서부 현상을
안 아프리카가 아니라 아시아 (을 제외하고 이스라엘과 일본)이 아니라 러시아도 아닌 제 3 세계 현상을합니다. 그것 정면에 속하는 부자, sated 세계합니다. 자들의 면죄부는 누구의 모든 것, 그리고 야간 엔터테인먼트의 최고의 관심사는 그들의 선택을합니다. 50~60%의 모든 인터넷 사용자 사이에 살고있는 미국, 캐나다에 5-10 %. 캐치에서 인터넷은 유럽 (주로 독일과 스칸디 나비아)와, 자사 모바일 양식 (- 모드)에서 일본합니다. 프랑스의 인터넷을 minitel 기회를 잃게 후자를 제공하기 때문에 높은 비용 때문에 더 많은 로컬 콘텐츠와 관련성이 높은 통신 및 하드웨어합니다.
커뮤니케이션
28,800 bps 수있는 대부분의 컴퓨터 소유자 아직도 모뎀을합니다. 이것은 독일의 고속차 전용 도로에서 자전거를 운전하고 비슷합니다. 점차적으로 바꾸기는 전임자의 느린 the 56,600 bps (48 %의 컴퓨터에 모뎀) - 그러나 이것은 거의 충분합니다. 를 시작으로 즐기는 비디오 및 오디오 (특히 전) - 50 배 빠른 데이터 전송률을해야합니다.
가구의 절반, 미국은 최소한 2 전화와 전용 데이터에 그들 중 하나는 보통 처리 (팩스 또는 팩스 - 모뎀).
the isdn이 중반 - 임기 솔루션을 구성합니다. 이 데이터를 전송 네트워크는 매우 신속하고 미국의 영토의 70 %를 커버합니다. 그것은 매년 100 % 성장하여 100 억 달러의 매출 1 위 1995 년 / 6.
불행히도, 그것은 아주 선명하게 isdn에 대한 답변은합니다. 그것이 너무 느리고, 너무 사용자 - 비우 호적이 나쁜 인터페이스를 다른 네트워크 유형, 특수 하드웨어가 필요합니다. 투자에 없다 지점에서 오른쪽 해결 방법은 일시적인 솔루션을 때 인터넷에의 얼굴을 바라지만 그것은 정치적인 상황으로 인해이 구현되지 않았습니다.
케이블 모뎀이 80 배, 700 배 빠른 isdn보다 더 빠르다 14400 bps 모뎀을보다 더합니다. 그러나, 그것은이 문제를 수용할 수는 2 - 방식의 데이터 전송합니다. 또한 파이버 옵틱 인프라 스트럭처에 연결해야 기업이 옛 구리 동축 케이블의 특징 특징 전화 통신 인프라 스트럭처를합니다. 케이블 사용자가 특수하게 주문을 받아서 만들 교전 랑 (이더넷)과 하드웨어가 비싸 (다만 장비 수요 증가로 가격이 예보를 축소). 유선 방송 회사의 기술 개발에 투자를 간단하게 않았합니다. 법률 (1996 년 이전에 커뮤니케이션 행위) 금지가 아니라 그들에게 무엇이든 한 방법을 통해 이전의 비디오 케이블을합니다. 이제 더 많은 자유를 조절 환경을, 그것은이 기술이 발견하기 전까지의 시간 질문에 불과합니다.
사실, 대부분의 소비자를 단일 아웃 나쁜 고객 관계로 이들의 가장 큰 문제가있는 케이블 회사 -보다는 기술을합니다.
실험과 케이블 모뎀을 주도의 사용 시간을 2 배 (1 개월 평균 사용 자별 24-47시간)을가 상승 속도를 완전히 귀속합니다. 이것은 문화 혁명을 닫습니다 여가 시간을 할당합니다. 숫자 말하기 : 7 만 가구에서 미국이 장착되어 2 - 방식의 데이터 전송 케이블 모뎀합니다. 이것은 작은 번호와 누구의 추측이 중요한 합의를 대량면합니다. 이러한 모뎀 금액을 13 억 달러의 매출을 매년합니다.
50 %의 집에 컴퓨터의 모든 케이블 가입자도합니다. 이 날 것으로 보인다의 두 기술의 통합은 피할 수 없다.
다른 기술적인 솔루션 - 같은 DSL 모뎀, adsl, 그리고 더 많은 유망 인공 위성 광대역 -되고 개발 및 구현 속도가 느려지고 비효율적이기는합니다. 보상 범위는 몇 달 동안 산발과 좌절감이 대기 기간을 측정합니다.
하드웨어 및 소프트웨어
대부분의 인터넷 사용자가 (82 %) 창문 운영 체제를 작동합니다. 약 11 % 소유하고 매킨토시 (더 강력한 그래픽과 더 많은 사용자 - 우호). 유닉스에서 7 %에서 계속 작업에만 기반 시스템 (말인데요, 역사적으로, 신부님은 인터넷) - 그리고이 숫자는 빠르게 감소합니다. 강한 참가자는 무료 소스 리눅스 운영 체제를합니다.
사용자가 검색을 통해 거의 모든 소프트웨어를 서핑합니다. 빠른 감소 소수 (26 %)를 사용 넷스케이프의 제품 (주로 네비게이터와 전해주는)와의 대부분을 사용 마이크로 소프트의 익스플로러 (시장의 60 % 이상). 브라우저는 현재 무료 제품과 인터넷에서 다운로드할 수있습니다. 로 늦어도 1997, 그것은 브라우저를 예측하는 주요 인터넷 컨설팅 회사의 매출은 2000 년 최고 40억달러합니다. 이러한 잘못된 예언을 무시하고 기본적인 기풍의 인터넷 : 무료 제품, 무료 콘텐츠, 무료로 이용할 수있습니다.
브라우저는 큰 변화를합니다. 그들 대부분이 확률이 3 - 패, 고급 오디오, 텔레포니 / 음성 / 비디오 메일 (승 - 메일), 인스턴트 메시징, 이메일 - 메일, 화상회의 기능을 통합되어 동일한 브라우징 세션을합니다. 그들은 자립 - 주문을 받아서, 지능형, 인터넷 인터페이스를합니다. 그들은 사용법 및 사용자 환경 설정의 역사를 기억하고 이에 따라 적응할 자신합니다. 그들은 허용 콘텐츠 - 특이 : 인터넷을 식별할 수없는 스마트 에이전트는 헤매는하게 권장 사항을 비교 가격, 주문 상품과 서비스 및 사용자 지정 자기 - 조정하는 내용에 따라 사용자 프로필을합니다.
2 개의 중요한 기술 개발로 간주되어야합니다 :
주변 (개인 디지털 비서) - 궁극적인 개인 (및 사무실) 커뮤니케이, 천천히을 들고, 그들을 제공 인터넷 (액세스)이 사방으로 독립적인 공급 업체 및 공급 업체와 물리적 인프라 (에서 비행기의 필드, 극장에서) 합니다.
두 번째 트렌드 : 무선 데이터 전송, 무선 이메일 - 메일, 호출기 여부를 통해, 휴대 전화, 또는 영리를 통해 휴대 전화와 같은 더 정교한 장비 및 하이브리드합니다. geotech의 제품이 뛰어난 예 : 이메일 - 우편, 팩스, 전화 및 인터넷과 연관이있는 다른, 공공 및 기업, 또는 독자적인 데이터베이스 - 모든 가제트를 제공하는 동일합니다. 이것은 구현의 전자, 물리적으로 분리, 사무실합니다. 웨어러블 컴퓨팅의 한 부분으로 간주은이 "유비 쿼터스, 퍼베이시브 컴퓨팅"파도합니다.
우리는 측정 방법이없습니다 - 또는 지능적으로 추측 - 그 부분의 모바일 인터넷에 미래의 인터넷 시장의 총을보다 큽니다하지만이 높다 "고정"부분합니다. 무선 인터넷 메쉬의 동향을 잘 퍼베이시브 컴퓨팅과 지능형 홈과 사무실합니다. 부속품과 같은 가정용 전자 레인지, 냉장고 등은 인터넷에 연결하여 무선 통신 인터페이스를 추려를 통해 데이터를 다운로드 정보, 주문 상품 및 서비스, 리포트의 상태 및 기본적인 유지 보수 기능을 수행합니다. 위치를 구체적인 서비스 (네비게이션, 쇼핑 추천, 특별 할인, 거래 및 판매, 긴급 서비스)에 따라 달라집니다 사이에 기술의 합류 gps (stallite - 기반 지리적 위치 기술) 및 무선 인터넷합니다.
공급 업체 및 중개인
"기생하는"중개인은 각 단계에서 인터넷의 음식 체인 차지합니다.
인터넷 액세스를 제공하는은 여전히 "벙어리 파이프"-는 인터넷 서비스 제공 업체 ()
콘텐츠는 여전히 공급 업체 등에의 콘텐츠를 유지합니다.
이들 중 어떤 운명을 점차적으로 변색이나 고통받는 중개인은 상당한 시장 점유율을 체감합니다. 심지어 "벽으로 둘러싸인 정원"의 콘텐츠를 (예 : aol)이 위험에 노출되어 있다고 생각합니다.
비교를 통해, 심지어 오늘, ISP는이 4 배나 많은 가입자 (전세계)을 aol합니다. 틀림없이, 이것은 인터넷의 품질에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 - 전화 회사가 느리의 인프라를 유지 관리하고 굴복 해가는 병목 현상을 종종합니다. 전화 통신 자이언츠 the 명백한 의도는 인터넷 시장의 주역이 될 수도 고려해야합니다. 전화 회사는, 따라서, 재생 이중 역할 : 그들은 그들의 경쟁 업체에 대한 액세스를 제공 그들의 인프라 스트럭처 (때로는 실제 시간 또는 실제 독점) - 그리고 그들의 클라이언트와 경쟁하게됩니다. 유선 방송 회사에 대해서는 동일한 수있습니다. 마지막 구간을 통제하고 사용자의 거처인 큰 사업은 그 다음의 인터넷합니다. 이러한 추세 aol 같은 기업은 불이익을합니다. aol을 구하는가 절대적으로 중요하다 평등한 접근을 위해 케이블 회사의 백본과 인프라를 원한다면 생존합니다. 따라서 타임워너의 합병을합니다.
과연 그 판단이 대부분의 ISP는 그들의 잔디에 침입하여 불공정 경쟁의 전화와 케이블 회사로 간주됩니다. 그러나, 하나의 방벽이 항목을 잊어서는 안에 isp 시장은 매우 희박합니다. 최소한의 투자를 isp 된이 걸린다는 것입니다. 200 모뎀을 (비용 200 달러를 각각의)은 2000 년 평균이 필요를 충족시킬 정도로 사용자가 생성하는 사람의 소득이 연 500000 달러 isp. 요즘으로 저렴한 라우터는 동일합니다. 이 회사는 좋은 수익을 제공자의 자본, 의심의 여지가없이합니다.
the 히치 하이 커를
1000 억 이에 상응하는 주택의 웹 페이지를합니다. 검색 엔진의 응용 프로그램을 사용하여 구체적인 정보를 찾습니다이 인상적인, 지속적으로 증식하는 라이브러리합니다. 그들은 대체에, 가까운 미래에는 "지식 구조를"- 거대한 연감, 누구 텍스트가 포함됩니다 참조 (하이퍼 링크)를 다른, 관련성이 높은 사이트를합니다. 증인의 출현의 맨 앞으로의 "지능형 기록 보관소"과 "개인 정보 신문"(읽기 더 상세한 설명을). 일부 소프트웨어 응용 프로그램은 요약 내용, 다른 사람들이 색인을 생성하고 텍스트를 자동으로 하이퍼 링크를 참조하고 (가상 아마추어). 평균 사용자는 500 개의 사이트가에 관심을 -거야. 특별한 소프트웨어가 필요 주소록을 관리하는 ( "즐겨찾기", "담기") 및 내용 ( "지능형 addressbooks"). 이 현상을 검색 전용의 검색 엔진에 검색 엔진을 동시에 수많은는 자랄 ( "하이퍼 - 또는 메타 - 엔진"). 메타 - 엔진은 백그라운드에서 작동하고 다운로드 하이퍼 링크 및 광고 (후자의 관심이 필수적 사이트의 재정을 확보하는 개발자 및 소유자). 통계 소프트웨어를 추적 ( "얼마나 오래가 뭐 완료"), 모니터 ( "다음 사이트에서 검색하는 동안 그들은 무엇을 했을까")와 카운트 ( "얼마나 많은")를 귀하의 사이트에 방문자가 이미 존재합니다. 이러한 응용 프로그램의 일부는 위로 - 사무실 시설 (회계, 다음과 -을, 컬렉션, 심지어 텔레 - 매매)합니다. 그들은 모두 시간 산책로 및 일부에 대해 허용을 제공합니다 감사합니다.
이것은 우리가 작은 조각을 신속하게 개발 순수한 - 풍경 : 사람들이 살고있어 인터넷을 만들 사람과 기업보다는 열풍, 인터넷 그 자체. 모두들 알고 돈을 더 많은 것이있다는 인터넷에서 수익을 창출하는 방법에 대한 강의 - 인터넷 그 자체에 비해합니다. 이 막심 보유 사실에도 불구하고 아직은 32 억 달러에 이메일 - 상업은 1998 년. 기업과 소비자 간 (사람 Jump) 매출액 성장 적은 사업을보다 적극적 사업 (거래) 판매하고있는 것 같다 피어의 출현과 고통을 또 다른 타격 피어 투 피어 (p2p) 컴퓨터 네트워크를합니다. 후자의 역할을 허용 컴퓨터에서 컴퓨터의 파일을 서버와 asmong 스와핑에 연결을 활성화 따라서 사용자 (여부와 상관없이 중앙 디렉토리).
콘텐츠를 공급 업체
이것은 소외 분야의 인터넷합니다. 그들은 모두 돈을 잃게된다 (심지어 이메일 - 소매점 제공하는 기본적인 표준화된 물품 - 책, 물류 -를 제외하고 전까지는 9 월 11 일,의 사이트에 연결되어 관광). 아무도 그들 콘텐츠에 대한 감사의 투자로 생산에 많은 돈을 많은 노력을하고있습니다. 아주 질적, 5,000,000 달러까지 비용을 완전하게 상거래 활성화된 사이트를 제외하고 사이트를 유지 보수 및 고객 및 방문 서비스를합니다. 콘텐츠 제공 업체가 비판을 지속적으로 창의력을 너무 많이 부족이나 창의력합니다. 그들은 점점 더 많은 질문을합니다. 그들은 착취를 중개인, 및 기타 기생충 히치 하이 커를합니다. 이것은 민족 정신의 모든 비포 - 촬영의 무료 콘텐츠 영역의 인터넷으로합니다.
남성과 여성 지속적으로 액세스할 1 억 개 이상의 웹 -하지만이 번호를 스탠드 성장 (중앙 예측 : 300 만 명). 그러나, 웹를 사용하는 동안에는 이들에게 접근 할 수있는 35 %의 인터넷 - 이메일 - 메일은 60 % 이상에서 사용합니다. 이메일 - 메일은 지금까지 가장 일반적인 기능을 ( "킬러 애플") 및 전문 응용 프로그램 (유도라, 인터넷 메일, 마이크로 소프트 교환) - 무료 또는 광고 스폰서 - 계속 액세스할 수 있도록 모든 및 사용자 - 친절합니다.
대부분의 사용자가 서핑을 좋아해 (브라 우즈를 방문 사이트) 또는 목표 이유없이 그물을 염두합니다. 이것은 어려운 전통적인 마케팅 기법을 적용합니다.
의 의미는 무엇입니까 "타겟 고객"또는 "시장 점유율"이 문맥?
특별한 경우에는 거래를하는 사이트를 방문 서퍼 섹스와 같은 세션에서 핵물리학 - 당신은 무엇을하기에 따라 달라질 수 있죠?
집회에 반대하는 국민과 의회의 반발 서퍼 '데이터하는 인터넷 광고 대행사 및 다른 웹 사이트 - 님이 주도의 프로필을 인터넷 사용자의 성장에 대한 무지를 그들의 인구, 습관, 환경 설정을 싫어하는 것.
서핑을 좋아하는 사람도 매우 행위를합니다. 그들이 원하는 엔터테인먼트를, 그리고 인터넷을 사용하여 작업 도구를, 대부분의 서비스를 그들의 고용주, 사람, 보통 다리이 법안합니다. 사용자가 사랑 무료 다운로드 (주로 소프트웨어).
"무료"은 인터넷에서 핵심 단어 : 예전에 속한다는 미국 정부의 대학 뭉치를합니다. 귀하와 같은 사용자 정보를, 새로운 제품에 대한 데이터를 강조하는 뉴스 및합니다. 하지만 그들도 인터넷에서 쇼핑을 좋아하지 않아요 - 아직합니다. 만 38 %의 모든 서퍼가 구매를하는 동안 1998.
67 %의 그들을 좋아한다는 가상 섹스를합니다. 자주 방문하는 사이트의 50 %가 포르노 사이트 (이것은 초기 연상의 비디오 카세트 레코더 - 비디오). 사람들은 같은 양의 시간을 할애 비디오 카세트 또는 텔레비전을보고 인터넷 서핑이 그들이 어떻게 할합니다. 인터넷을 보인다 텔레비전을 해체합니다.
성별에 이어 음악, 체육, 보건, 텔레비전, 컴퓨터, 영화, 정치, 애완 동물과 요리 사이트를합니다. 사람들은 그림을 인터렉티브 게임을합니다. 도박, 인터넷은 곧 사람을 사용하지 않을 경우 입법을 방해합니다. 도박 금액이 100 억 달러에 그물을 통과 예측합니다. 이렇게하면 감각 : 아무것도를 제공하는 컴퓨터처럼 즉각적인 (금전, 심리적) 보상합니다.
선호하는 인터넷에서 상거래는 다른합니다. 인터넷은 소프트웨어의 판매를위한 완벽한 매체 및 다른 디지털 제품 (이메일 - 도서). 데이터 보안 문제를 해결되는가오고있다 세트 (또는 기타) 세계 표준.
이르면 1995 년 인터넷을 가상 쇼핑 센터를 방문하여 100 개 이상이 250 만 쇼핑객 (그리고 아마도에서이 번호를 두 번 1996 년).
1999 년 예측은 1-5000000000 달러 사이의 인터넷 쇼핑몰 (플러스 20 억 달러에 - 라인을 통해 정보 제공자와 같은 CompuServe를하고 aol) - 증명 맞는게 하나도 없어요. 1998 년 번호는 7 차례의 실제 1999 년 예측합니다.
또한 가족을 널리 있다고 믿고있습니다 대진 예산의 20 %를 인터넷으로 이메일을 통과하게된다 - 돈이 금액을 150 억 달러.
인터넷된다 - 은행 결제 시스템과 다양 거대한 동안 현금 지급기의 유형과 투자 은행 업무 서비스는 그것을 통해 제공합니다. 기본적으로, 모든 인터넷을 통해 수행할 수있습니다 : 직업을 찾고, 예를 들어합니다.
그러나, 인터넷은 결코 인간의 상호 작용을 대체합니다. 개인 뱅킹을 선호하는 사람들이있는 것 같다, 윈도우 쇼핑, 쇼핑 센터로의 사회 경험의 인터넷 뱅킹 및 이메일 - 상거래, 또는 m - 상업합니다.
어떤 사이트는 이미 스포츠 분류 광고를합니다. 이것은 비용을 지불하는 방법이 나쁘지 않은지만 대부분의 분류 광고는 무료 (유치하는 것은 그들이 문제의 광고).
또 다른 발전 추세는 웹사이트 - 등급 및 강평합니다. 그것을 치료하는 방법은 오늘날의 인쇄 버전이있습니다. 그것은 한정된 결정에 영향을 미치는 일부 사용자의 소비합니다. 버튼 레이블이 이미 스포츠의 브라우저 "무엇의 새"와 "무슨 뜨거운"합니다. 대부분의 검색 엔진에 특정 사이트를 추천합니다. 사용자들이 신중합니다. 연구 발견없는 사용자, 아무리 무거운는 200 개 이상의 사이트에 지속적으로 다시 -을 방문, 작은 숫자합니다. 10 대부분의 인기있는 웹 사이트 (야후!, MSN 친구 등)의 모든 인터넷 트래픽의 50 % 이상의 매력. 임의의 사이트를 추천 서비스를 자주 생산 - 때로는 잘못된 - 해당 사용자에 대한 선택합니다. 개인 정보 보호 문제에 대해 우려가있습니다. the backlah 반대 아마존의 "독자의 동그라미"는 예입니다.
웹 비평가, 오늘은 주로 누구 작품 인쇄 언론에 그들의 실력은 인터넷에서 발행되며이 링크를 지능형 소프트웨어는 하이퍼 링크를 참조 권장합니다. 일부 웹 비판이 특정 응용 프로그램을 식별됩니다 - 정말이세요, 전문 시스템을 통합할은 그들의 지식과 경험을합니다.
돈
재정의 수도는 어디에 이러한 모든 발전 필요가 온 거죠?
또, 2 개의 학교 :
하나는 그 사이트에 광고를 통해 융자된다 - 그리고 그 사람이 검색 엔진 및 다른 응용 프로그램에 접근하는 사용자가합니다.
특정 asps (응용 프로그램 서비스 제공 업체의 응용 프로그램을 액세스할 수있는 소프트웨어를 임대하는 그들의 서버에 상주)은이 모델을 고려합니다.
간단하고 두 번째 버전이 아닌 - 상업적인 콘텐츠의 존재를 허용합니다.
그것을 제안 무시할를 수집하는 액수 (센트 또는 분수의 센트)에서 모든 사용자마다 방문 ( "마이크로 - 결제") 또는 구독 요금합니다. 이러한 누적된 센트의 소유자 또는 가입 수수료를 설정하는 그들을 유지하기 이전에 사이트를 업데이 트하고 새로운 친구를 개발 기업인을 격려합니다. 특정 콘텐츠 어그리게이터 (특히 디지털 교과서)는이 모델을 채택 (questia, 길).
지적 the 주장의 첫번째 학교 5 백만 달러에서 1995 년과을하는 동안에 투자하고 광고에 투자하는 동안 6000 만 정도 1996.
그 반대 지점에 정확하게 동일한 전화 번호 : 웃기 작은 경우 더 많은 전통적인 광고 모드와 대조. 인터넷에서 광고의 잠재력이 제한은 1998 년 연간 150 억 달러, thundered the 비관론 (많은 생각 절반에 있다고하더라도 그것은 아주 좋은). 두 번 예언의 실제 수치는하지만 여전히 불충 분한 woefully을 지원하기 위해 소규모 인터넷의 콘텐츠를 개발하고있습니다.
이 숫자를 인터넷 소프트웨어의 판매를 비교 ($ 4 억원), 인터넷 하드웨어 ($ 3 억원), 인터넷 액세스 제공 (4,200,000,000달러)는 1995 년.
hembrecht 및 인터넷 관련 산업의 것으로 추정 quist 키아 23,200,000,000 원을 매년 (원정 보고서 중순 - 1996).
그리고 그 다음에 더 많은 광고가 거의 enocuraging합니다.
이 제품은 상호 작용의 소비자에게 전달하고 그를합니다. 이것 - 배달 단계 - enervating 끝맺음은 천천히 그리고 흥미로운 사건의 순서를 빛의 속도에 그물을 통해합니다. 이 너무 많습니다 불평을하는 소비자를 아직도 그들은 그들이 명령을받지 않습니다, 또는 늦게와 제품이 배달이 결함이있습니다.
이 솔루션의 광고와 콘텐츠를 통합 누워있을 수있습니다. pointcast, 예를 들어, 통합 광고로의 뉴스 방송, 사용자의 화면을 지속적으로 스트리밍되는 경우에도 운영 중지 (그들이 제공 액티브 스크린 세이버를 다운로드 및 시세에 "푸시 기술을"). 다운로드 디지털 음악, 비디오 및 텍스트 파일 (이메일 - 책)가 연결되는 즉각적인 만족을 소비자 및 광고의 효력이 증가합니다.
어떤 경우는, 통일, 합의를 충전 시스템을 평가하기위한 기준으로 광고주,이 테구요이 필요합니다. 또한 광고주가 지불의 문제를 무엇입니까?
많은 광고주 (프록터과 도박으로, 예를 들어)의 개수에 따라 안타를 지불을 거부 또는 노출 (= 항목을 방문하는 사이트). 그들이 동의하는 전화 번호를 차례에만 비용을 지불하는 그들에 따르면 광고가 공격 (페이지보기).
산출하기위한 기준이 서로 다른 시나리오의 모든 수익을 상하게 전망이다.
소수의 사이트에 대한 중요한 것은, 존경받는 신문은 구독에 기초합니다. 다우 존스 (월스트리트 저널) 및 이코노미 스트를 언급하지만 두 개의합니다.
이 발견이 된 일반 동향?
인터넷을 은유로서
인터넷을 고려할 때이 떠오르 3 개의 은유 "철학적으로"합니다.
혼돈 도서관은 인터넷으로
1. 이 문제의 목록
인터넷은 수십억 페이지에 각종 정보를 포함합니다. 그들 중 일부는 다른 사람들이 발생 숨겨진 데이터베이스를 표시하고 사용자의 요청을 ( "보이지 않는 인터넷").
인터넷을 식별 순서를 표시 아니오, 분류, 또는 분류합니다. 반대로 "고전"도서관, 아무도 발명 목록 표준 (기억 듀이?). 이거 정말 필요로하는 것은 놀라운 발명이 아직되지 않았습니다. 듀이를 10 진수 실제로 적용하는 일부 사이트 syatem (suite101). 기본적으로 다른 사람의 디렉터리 구조 (오픈 디렉토리, 야후!, 봐 스마트 등).
이 같은 표준이 존재 (협정시 숫자 목록 방식) - 각 사이트가 자체 - 분류합니다. 사이트에 관심이 침투를 강화하기 위해 이렇게하려면 요금과 그들의 시정합니다. 이 당연히,이 오늘날의 어설픈의 필요성을 제거, 불완전하고 (높이) 비효율적인 검색 엔진을합니다.
누구의 번호를 900으로 시작하는 사이트로 처리된다 내역을 바로 확인할 수 및 여러 종류가 세밀하게 크로스 - 섹션을 격려 출현을 허용합니다. 이 같은 신흥 기술의 예입니다 "자기 자신 분류"및 "자기 - 간행물"(비록 국한 학술 자원)는 "학술 자원 채널"을 scindex합니다.
사용자가 요구되지 않습니다 reams의 숫자를 기억합니다. 미래의 브라우저에 나의이된다 카탈로그, 매우 비슷 현대의 라이브러리를 사용하는 응용 프로그램. 이 유토피아를 현재 dystopy을 비교합니다. 투쟁과 관련성이없는 사용자의 reams 부분과 실망스러운 재료가 마침내 목적지에 도달합니다. 동시에,이 보인다는 웹 사이트를 사용자의 필요에 가난한 사람들을 정확하게 일치합니다. 그러나, 기회를 어떻게 결정하는 현재 사용자와 콘텐츠를 사이에 행복한 만남 - 지금의 변덕 스러움의 특정 검색 엔진을 사용하고 같은 메타 - 태그, 헤드 라인,에서 수수료를 지불하거나 문장의 오른쪽 오픈합니다.
2. 화면 대 페이지를
컴퓨터 화면, 왜냐하면의 물리적 제한 (크기, 사실은 그것은 그래야만 스크롤)과 경쟁을 효과적으로 인쇄된 페이지에 실패합니다. 후자는 아직은 아직은 대부분의 독창적인 매체를 발명 텍스트 정보를 저장하고 방출합니다. 부여 : 컴퓨터에 화면이 더 나은 개별 단위의 정보를 강조합니다. 그래서,이 그리기 batlle 라인 : 구조 (인쇄된 페이지) 대 장치 (화면)를 지속적으로 쉽게 뒤집을 수 대 이산합니다.
이 솔루션은 효율적인 방법으로 컴퓨터 화면 인쇄를 번역합니다. 그것은 믿기 힘들지만 결코 그런 일이 존재합니다. 컴퓨터 화면은 여전히 적대적 - 라인 출력을 취소합니다. 다른 말로하면 : 예를 들어, 사용자가 인터넷에서 정보를 복사 그의 워드 프로세서 (또는 그 반대의 경우도 마찬가) - 그 봉변을 쪼개지고, 쓰레기 - 채워진 및 아닌 - 심미 문서를합니다.
소수의 사이트를 개발하려고 할 뭔가를 할 - 심지어 더 적은 성공합니다.
3. 인터넷에 cd - 호환
공급 업체 중 하나는 그들의 최대의 실수는 콘텐츠의 내용이나에 넣지 마십시오 "정적 - 동적 상호 작용을"합니다.
인터넷을 쉽게 상호 작용 수있습니다 다른 매체 (특히 오디오 세트와 cd - roms) -에도 해당 사용자가 서핑을합니다.
예를은 많지 :
쇼핑 카탈로그를 배포할 수있습니다 cd - 호환 우편으로합니다. The Internet Site will allow the user to order a product previously selected from the catalogue, while off-line. The catalogue could also be updated through the site (as is done with CD-ROM encyclopedias).
The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of times faster than the access to a site using a dial up connection) and a data storage capacity tens of times bigger than the average website.
Another example: a CD-ROM can be distributed, containing hundreds of advertisements. The consumer will select the ad that he wants to see and will connect to the Internet to view a relevant video.
He could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference) with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad, about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such as the Britannica, Encarta, Grolier) already contain hyperlinks which carry the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
But CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium. This industry chose to emphasize the wrong things. Storage capacity increased exponentially and, within a year, desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be common. Moreover, the Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer - will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction of radio, statellite, ADSL broadband services, cable modems and compression methods - video (on demand), audio and data will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There is a long time lapse between the moment they are purchased and the moment the first data become accessible to the user. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these oldest of media is instantly available to the user and allows for easy and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous, user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to data. So does the discman or the MP3-man. This cannot be said of the CD-ROM. By tying its future to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion (with the possible exception of reference material).
4. On-line Reference Libraries
These already exist. A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia Britannica exemplifies some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities:
Each entry is hyperlinked to sites on the Internet which deal with the same subject matter. The sites are carefully screened (though more detailed descriptions of each site should be available - they could be prepared either by the staff of the encyclopaedia or by the site owner). Links are available to data in various forms, including audio and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to CD-ROMs.
This is a new conception of a knowledge centre - not just an assortment of material. It is modular, can be added on and subtracted from. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" service could be very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information". The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative Digital Reference Service).
5. The Feedback Option
Hard to believe, but very few sites encourage their guests to express an opinion about the site, its contents and its aesthetics. This indicates an ossified mode of thinking about the most dynamic mass medium ever created, the only interactive mass medium yet. Each site must absolutely contain feedback and rating questionnaires. It has the side benefit of creating a database of the visitors to the site.
Moreover, each site can easily become a "knowledge centre".
Let us consider a site dedicated to advertising and marketing:
It can contain feedback questionnaires (what do you think about the site, suggestions for improvement, mailto and leave message facilities, etc.)
It can contain rating questionnaires (rate these ads, these TV or radio shows, these advertising campaigns).
It can allocate some space to clients to create their home pages in (these home pages could lead to their sites, to other sites, to other sections of the host site - and, in any case, will serve as a display of the creative talent of the site owners). This will give the site owners a picture of the distribution of the areas of interest of the visitors to the site.
The site can include statistical, tracking and counter software.
Such a site can refer to hundreds of useful shareware applications (which deal with different aspects of advertising and marketing, for instance). Developers of applications will be able to use the site to promote their products. Other practical applications could also be referred to from - or reside on - the site (browsers, games, search engines).
And all this can be organized in a portal structure (for instance, by adopting the open software of the Open Directory Project).
육. Internet Derived CD-ROMS
The Internet is an enormous reservoir of freely available, public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap CD-ROMs. Each such CD-ROM can contain:
Addresses of web sites specific to the subject matter
The first pages of each of these sites
Hyperlinks to each of the sites
A browser
Access to all the important search engines
Recommended search strings (it is extremely difficult to formulate a successful search in the Internet, it takes expertise. "Ready-made searches" will be a hit in the future, as the number of sites grows)
A dictionary of professional terms, a speller and a thesaurus
A list of general reference sites
Shareware specific to the field
7. Publishing
The Internet is the world's largest "publisher", by far. It "publishes" FAQs (Frequent Answers and Questions regarding almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic versions of magazines, not a very profitable pursuit), the electronic versions of dailies (together with on-line news and information services), reference and other e-books, monographs, articles and minutes of discussions ("threads"), among other types of material.
Publishing an e-zine has a few advantages: it promotes the sales of the printed edition, it helps to sign on subscribers and it leads to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see next section) saves the need to file back issues, the space required to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription: electronic (mainly for the archival value and the ability to hyperlink to additional information) and printed (easier to browse current issue).
The electronic daily presents other advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers. The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content can be instantly updated and immediacy has its premium (remember the Lewinsky affair?).
Strangely, this (conventional) field was the first to develop a "virtual reality" facet. There are virtual "magazine stalls". They look exactly like the real thing and the user can buy a paper using his mouse.
Specialty hand held devices already allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000 print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device. Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well (the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's MS-Reader).
Broadly, e-books are treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books) by other means
or as
A whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books - then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior to the price, comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
Hyperlinks within the e-book and without it - to web content, reference works, etc.
Embedded instant shopping and ordering links
Divergent, user-interactive, decision driven plotlines
Interaction with other e-books (using a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring
Interaction with other e-books - gaming and community activities
Automatically or periodically updated content
Multimedia
Database, Favourites and History Maintenance (reading habits, shopping habits, interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more)
Automatic and embedded audio conversion and translation capabilities
Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking capabilities
The technology is still not fully there. Wars rage in both the wireless and the ebook realms. Platforms compete. Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it the e-book of the future.
8. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible - the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory. One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines (Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
The Internet as a Collective Brain
Drawing a comparison from the development of a human baby - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally, pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is accessible in a few ways, it contains a memory function, it is multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy to adulthood) - amounts to perusing the future of the Net itself.
1. The Collective Computer
To carry the metaphor of "a collective brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place in the Internet, rather than inside the end-user's hardware (the same way that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops will receive the results and communicate with the Net to receive additional clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from their environment (mostly, from the user).
This is part fo the philosophy of the JAVA programming language. It deals with applets - small bits of software - and links different computer platforms by means of software.
Put differently:
Future servers will contain not only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software, broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all that it is not with his own software that he is working (the question of ownership will be very blurred in such a world). This technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals). Applications are already offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists put the combined power of the computers linked to the internet at any given moment to perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data and solve complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
2. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches of a bank, daughter companies, a sales force). Many LANs are wireless.
The intranet / extranet and wireless LANs will be the winners. They will gradually eliminate both fixed line LANs and WANs. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to all the members of an organization.Sophisticated firewall security application protects the privacy and confidentiality of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy hackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and which enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it and to participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
By the year 2002, a standard intranet interface will emerge. This will be facilitated by the opening up of the TCP/IP communication architecture and its availability to PCs. A billion USD will go just to finance intranet servers - or, at least, this is the median forecast.
The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to one of two obstacles to the institution of the Intranet. The second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet phones come out (slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.
At the end of 1997, there were 10 web servers per every other type of server in organizations. The sale of intranet related software was projected to multiply by 16 (to 8 billion USD) by the year 1999.
One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence. This notion has its charm. Consider a newspaper: it can give access to all the materials which were discarded by the editors. Some news are fit to print - yet are discarded because of space limitations. Still, someone is bound to be interested. It costs the newspaper close to nothing (the material is, normally, already computer-resident) - and it might even generate added circulation and income. It can be even conceived as an "underground, non-commercial, alternative" newspaper for a wholly different readership.
The above is but one example of the possible use of the intranet to communicate with the organization's consumer base.
3. Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail possibilities) is eroding traditional mail. The market share of the post office in conveying messages by regular mail has dwindled from 77% to 62% (1995). E-mail has expanded to capture 36% (up from 19%).
90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet. Microsoft continues to incorporate previously independent applications in its browsers - a behaviour which led to the 1999 anti-trust lawsuit against it.
The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel's, Vocaltec's, Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
This beats regular phones.
The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped into the software and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.
4. E-cash
In 1996, the four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom by a factor of 50 to 25 billion USD. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. Dedicated visitors will not be deterred by such trifles.
5. The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows simultaneous communication between an almost unlimited number of users. This is coupled with the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files.
This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians will be able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies will be able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interactive mode;
Cinema and TV films will be produced from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through the net.
These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community". Locations in space and time will no longer hinder a collaboration in a team: be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or for the provision of services (a virtual law firm or accounting office, a virtual consultancy network).
Two on going developments are the virtual mall and the virtual catalogue.
There are well over 300 active virtual malls in the Internet. They were frequented by 32.5 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services in 1998. The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall is a computer "space" (pages) in the internet, wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes a gate into the store and looks through its offering, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the product and waits for it to arrive by mail. The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads.
Yet, slow communications and limited bandwidth - constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once solved - intellectual property will be sold directly from the net, on-line. Until such time, the intervention of the Post Office is still required. So, then virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time.
The user will enter the site and there delineate his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue will be immediately generated for him.
From then on, the history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires will be accumulated and added to a database.
Each catalogue generated for him will come replete with order forms. Once the user concluded his purchases, his profile will be updated.
There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal ones. Big retail stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to arrive. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data.
The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons and the new generation (NetBot) cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.
In the future, these agents will refer also to real life retail chains and issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence). This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
육. Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They can be frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and be always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of interactive news. A special "corner" in the site will be open to updates posted by the public (the equivalent of press releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet and be displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a square in a special location. The contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coveage.
Terra Internetica - Internet, an Unknown Continent
This is an unconventional way to look at the Internet. Laymen and experts alike talk about "sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet will have its own real estate developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the Internet counterparts will derive their profits from the tenants (the content).
Two examples:
A few companies bought "Internet Space" (pages, domain names, portals), developed it and make commercial use of it by:
renting it out
constructing infrastructure and selling it
providing an intelligent gateway, entry point to the rest of the internet
or selling advertising space which subsidizes the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others).
Cybersquatting (purchasing specific domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling the domain name to an interested party
Internet Space can be easily purchased or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected - for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
At the beginning, only members of the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs, gamblers) invest in a new invention. The invention of a new communications technology is mostly accompanied by devastating silence.
No one knows to say what are the optimal uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way for old and tried modes of doing the same thing (so why assume the risk?)
These criticisms are usually founded:
To start with, there is, indeed, no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited, it was horribly user unfriendly.
It suffered from faulty design, absent user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was unique to the new invention (not portable).
It reduced labour mobility and limited one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among those assigned to tame the new beast.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning, as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. As the presence of a keyboard was detected and as the professional horizon cleared it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and its existence justified solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real application and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly flexibility and speed). Still, it was more (speed) of the same. A quicker ruler or pen and paper. What was the difference between this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialities. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer's first important breakthrough. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different - the multimedia and the Internet have made it qualitatively superior, actually, sui generis, unique.
This, precisely, is the ghost haunting the Internet:
It has been invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: more, stronger, higher. Not: new, unprecedented, non-existent. To improve - not to invent. They stumbled across the Internet - it invented itself despite its own creators.
Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages.
These all are attuned to the user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison's Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble: the improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what the manufacturers claimed was better quality Bach. A better argument was the longer life of the software (though contrasted with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing the consumers.
Every medium is first controlled by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness the initial confusion concerning copyrighted software and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. Recall the sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays.
But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge.
This distinction is important. While in real life it is possible to sell an undeveloped plot of land - no one will buy "pages". The supply of these is unlimited - their scarcity (and, therefore, their virtual price) is zero.
The second example involves the utilization of a site - rather than its mere availability.
A developer could open a site wherein first time authors will be able to publish their first manuscript - for a fee. Evidently, such a fee will be a fraction of what it would take to publish a "real life" book. The author could collect money for any downloading of his book - and split it with the site developer. The potential buyers will be provided with access to the contents and to a chapter of the books. This is currently being done by a few fledgling firms but a full scale publishing industry has not yet developed.
The Life of a Medium The internet is simply the latest in a series of networks which revolutionized our lives. A century before the internet, the telegraph, the railways, the radio and the telephone have been similarly heralded as "global" and transforming.
Every medium of communications goes through the same evolutionary cycle:
Anarchy
The Public Phase
At this stage, the medium and the resources attached to it are very cheap, accessible, under no regulatory constraints. The public sector steps in: higher education institutions, religious institutions, government, not for profit organizations, non governmental organizations (NGOs), trade unions, etc. Bedevilled by limited financial resources, they regard the new medium as a cost effective way of disseminating their messages.
The Internet was not exempt from this phase which ended only a few years ago. It started with a complete computer anarchy manifested in ad hoc networks, local networks, networks of organizations (mainly universities and organs of the government such as DARPA, a part of the defence establishment, in the USA). Non commercial entities jumped on the bandwagon and started sewing these networks together (an activity fully subsidized by government funds). The result was a globe encompassing network of academic institutions. The American Pentagon established the network of all networks, the ARPANET. Other government departments joined the fray, headed by the National Science Foundation (NSF) which withdrew only lately from the Internet.
The Internet (with a different name) became semi-public property - with access granted to the chosen few.
Radio took precisely this course. Radio transmissions started in the USA in 1920. Those were anarchic broadcasts with no discernible regularity. Non commercial organizations and not for profit organizations began their own broadcasts and even created radio broadcasting infrastructure (albeit of the cheap and local kind) dedicated to their audiences. Trade unions, certain educational institutions and religious groups commenced "public radio" broadcasts.
The Commercial Phase
When the users (eg, listeners in the case of the radio, or owners of PCs and modems in the example of the Internet) reach a critical mass - the business sector is alerted. In the name of capitalist ideology (another religion, really) it demands "privatization" of the medium. This harps on very sensitive strings in every Western soul: the efficient allocation of resources which is the result of competition, corruption and inefficiency naturally associated with the public sector ("Other People's Money" - OPM), the ulterior motives of members of the ruling political echelons (the infamous American Paranoia), a lack of variety and of catering to the tastes and interests of certain audiences, the equation private enterprise = democracy and more.
The end result is the same: the private sector takes over the medium from "below" (makes offers to the owners or operators of the medium - that they cannot possibly refuse) - or from "above" (successful lobbying in the corridors of power leads to the appropriate legislation and the medium is "privatized").
Every privatization - especially that of a medium - provokes public opposition. There are (usually founded) suspicions that the interests of the public were compromised and sacrificed on the altar of commercialization and rating. Fears of monopolization and cartelization of the medium are evoked - and justified, in due time. Otherwise, there is fear of the concentration of control of the medium in a few hands. All these things do happen - but the pace is so slow that the initial fears are forgotten and public attention reverts to fresher issues.
A new Communications Act was legislated in the USA in 1934. It was meant to transform radio frequencies into a national resource to be sold to the private sector which will use it to transmit radio signals to receivers. In other words: the radio was passed on to private and commercial hands. Public radio was doomed to be marginalized.
The American administration withdrew from its last major involvement in the Internet in April 1995, when the NSF ceased to finance some of the networks and, thus, privatized its hitherto heavy involvement in the net.
A new Communications Act was legislated in 1996. It permitted "organized anarchy". It allowed media operators to invade each other's territories.
Phone companies will be allowed to transmit video and cable companies will be allowed to transmit telephony, for instance. This is all phased over a long period of time - still, it is a revolution whose magnitude is difficult to gauge and whose consequences defy imagination. It carries an equally momentous price tag - official censorship. "Voluntary censorship", to be sure, somewhat toothless standardization and enforcement authorities, to be sure - still, a censorship with its own institutions to boot. The private sector reacted by threatening litigation - but, beneath the surface it is caving in to pressure and temptation, constructing its own censorship codes both in the cable and in the internet media.
Institutionalization
This phase is the next in the Internet's history, though, it seems, unbeknownst to it.
It is characterized by enhanced activities of legislation. Legislators, on all levels, discover the medium and lurch at it passionately. Resources which were considered "free", suddenly are transformed to "national treasures not to be dispensed with cheaply, casually and with frivolity".
It is conceivable that certain parts of the Internet will be "nationalized" (for instance, in the form of a licensing requirement) and tendered to the private sector. Legislation will be enacted which will deal with permitted and disallowed content (obscenity? incitement? racial or gender bias?)
No medium in the USA (not to mention the wide world) has eschewed such legislation. There are sure to be demands to allocate time (or space, or software, or content, or hardware) to "minorities", to "public affairs", to "community business". This is a tax that the business sector will have to pay to fend off the eager legislator and his nuisance value.
All this is bound to lead to a monopolization of hosts and servers. The important broadcast channels will diminish in number and be subjected to severe content restrictions. Sites which will not succumb to these requirements - will be deleted or neutralized. Content guidelines (euphemism for censorship) exist, even as we write, in all major content providers (CompuServe, AOL, Geocities, Tripod, Prodigy).
The Bloodbath
This is the phase of consolidation. The number of players is severely reduced. The number of browser types will be limited to 2-3 (Netscape, Microsoft and which else?). Networks will merge to form privately owned mega-networks. Servers will merge to form hyper-servers run on supercomputers in "server farms". The number of ISPs will be considerably cut.
50 companies ruled the greater part of the media markets in the USA in 1983. The number in 1995 was 18. At the end of the century they will number 6.
This is the stage when companies - fighting for financial survival - strive to acquire as many users/listeners/viewers as possible. The programming is shallowed to the lowest (and widest) common denominator. Shallow programming dominates as long as the bloodbath proceeds.
From Rags to Riches
Tough competition produces four processes:
1. A Major Drop in Hardware Prices
This happens in every medium but it doubly applies to a computer-dependent medium, such as the Internet.
Computer technology seems to abide by "Moore's Law" which says that the number of transistors which can be put on a chip doubles itself every 18 months. As a result of this miniaturization, computing power quadruples every 18 months and an exponential series ensues. Organic-biological-DNA computers, quantum computers, chaos computers - prompted by vast profits and spawned by inventive genius will ensure the longevity and continued applicability of Moore's Law.
The Internet is also subject to "Metcalf's Law".
It says that when we connect N computers to a network - we get an increase of N to the second power in its computing / processing power. And these N computers are more powerful every year, according to Moore's Law.
The growth of computing powers in networks is a multiple of the effects of the two laws. More and more computers with ever increasing computing power get connected and create an exponential 16 times growth in the network's computing power every 18 months.
2. Free Availability of Software and Connection
This is prevalent in the Net where even potentially commercial software can be downloaded for free. In many countries television viewers still pay for television broadcasts - but in the USA and many other countries in the West, the basic package of television channels comes free of charge.
As users / consumers form a habit of using (or consuming) the software - it is commercialized and begins to carry a price tag. This is what happened with the advent of cable television: contents are sold for subscription and usage (Pay Per View - PPV) fees.
Gradually, this is what will happen to most of the sites and software on the Net. Those which survive will begin to collect usage fees, access fees, subscription fees, downloading fees and other, appropriately named, fees. These fees are bound to be low - but it is the principle that counts. Even a few cents per transaction will accumulate to hefty sums with the traffic which will characterize the Net (or, at least its more popular locales).
Adverising revenues will allow ISPs to offer free communication and storage volume. Gradually, connect time charges imposed by the phone companies will be eroded by tough competition from the likes of the cable companies. Accessing the internet might well be free of all charges in 10 years time.
3. Increased User Friendliness
As long as the computer is less user friendly and less reliable (predictable) than television - less of a black box - its potential (and its future) is limited. Television attracts 3.5 billion users daily. The Internet will attract - under the most exuberant scenario - less than one tenth of this number of people. The only reasons for this disparity are (the lack of) user friendliness and reliability. Even browsers, among the most user friendly applications ever - are not sufficiently so. The user still needs to know how to use a keyboard and must possess some basic acquaintance with the operating system.
The more mature the medium, the more friendly it becomes. Finally, it will be operated using speech or common language. There will be room left for user "hunches" and built in flexible responses.
4. Social Taxes
Sooner or later, the business sector has to mollify the God of public opinion by offerings of political and social nature. The Internet is an affluent, educated, yuppie medium. It necessitates a control of the English language, live interest in information and its various uses (scientific, commercial, other), a lot of resources (free time, money to invest in hardware, software and connect time). It empowers - and thus deepens the divide between the haves and have-nots, the knowing and the ignorant, the computer illiterate.
In short: the Internet is an elitist medium. Publicly, this is an unhealthy posture. "Internetophobia" is already discernible. People (and politicians) talk about how unsafe the Internet is and about its possible uses for racial, sexist and pornographic purposes. The wider public is in a state of awe.
So, site builders and owners will do well to begin to improve their image: provide free access to schools and community centres, bankroll internet literacy classes, freely distribute contents and software to educational institutions, collaborate with researchers and social scientists and engineers.
In short: encourage the view that the Internet is a medium catering to the needs of the community and the underprivileged, a mostly altruist endeavour. This also happens to make good business sense by educating a future generation of users. He who visited a site when a student, free of charge - will pay to do so when made an executive. Such a user will also pass on the information within and without his organization. This is called media exposure.
The future will, no doubt, witness public Internet terminals, subsidized ISP accounts, free Internet classes and an alternative "non-commercial, public" approach to the Net.
The Internet: Medium or Chaos?
There has never been a medium like the Internet. The way it has formed, the way it was (not) managed, its hardware-software-communications specifications - are all unique.
No Government
The Internet has no central (or even decentralized) structure. In reality, it hardly has a structure at all. It is a collection of 16 million computers (end 1996) connected through thousands of networks. There are organizations which purport to set Internet standards (like the aforementioned ISOC, or the domain setting ICANN) - but they are all voluntary organizations, with no binding legal, enforcement, or adjudication powers. The result is often mayhem.
Many erroneously call the Internet the first democratic medium. Yet, it hardly qualifies as a medium and by no stretch of terminology is it democratic. Democracy has institutions, hierarchies, order. The Internet has none of these things. There are some vague understandings as to what is and is not allowed. This is a "code of honour" (more reminiscent of the Sicilian Mob than of the British Parliament, let's say). Violations are punished by excommunication (of the violating site or person).
The Internet has culture - but no education. Freedom of Speech is entrenched. Members of this virtual community react adversely to ideas of censorship, even when applied to hard core porno. In 1999, hackers hacked major government sites following an FBI initiative against hacking-related crimes. Government initiatives (in the USA, in France, the lawsuit against the General Manager of AOL in Germany) are acutely criticized. In the meantime, the spirit of the Internet prevails: the small man's medium. What seems to be emerging, though, is self censorship by content providers (such as AOL and CompuServe).
Independence
The Internet is not dependent upon a given hardware or software. True, it is accessible only through computers and there are dominant browsers.
But the Internet accommodates any digital (bit transfer) platform. Internet will be incorporated in the future into portable computers, palmtops, PDAs, mobile phones, cable television, telephones (with voice interface), home appliances and even wrist watches. It will be accessible to all, regardless of hardware and software.
The situation is, obviously, different with other media. There is standard hardware (the television set, the radio receiver, the digital print equipment). Data transfer modes are standardized as well. The only variable is the contents - and even this is standardized in an age of American cultural imperialism. Today, one can see the same television programs all over the globe, regardless of cultural or geographical differences.
Here is a reasonable prognosis for the Internet:
It will "broadcast" (it is, of course, a PULL medium, not a PUSH medium - see next chapter) to many kinds of hardware. Its functions will be controlled by 2-5 very common software applications. But it will differ from television in that contents will continue to be decentralized: every point on the Net is a potential producer of content at low cost. This is the equivalent of producing a talk show using a single home video camera. And the contents will remain varied.
Naturally, marketing content (sites) will remain an expensive art. Sites will also be richer or poorer, in accordance with the investment made in them.
Non Linearity and Functional Modularity
The Internet is the first medium in human history that is non-linear and totally modular.
A television program is broadcast from a transmitter, through the airwaves to a receiver (=the television set). The viewer sits opposite this receiver and passively watches. This is an entirely linear process. The Internet is different:
When communicating through the Internet, there is no way to predict how the information will reach its destination. The routing of information through the network is completely random, very much like the principle governing the telephony system (but on a global scale). The latter is not a point-to-point linear network. Rather, it is a network of networks. Our voice is transmitted back and forth inside a gigantic maze of copper wires and optic fibres. It seeps through any available wire - until it reaches its destination.
It is the same with the Internet.
Information is divided to packets. An address is attached to each packet and - using the TCP/IP data transfer protocol - is dispatched to roam this worldwide labyrinth. But the path from one neighbourhood of London to another may traverse Japan.
The really ingenious thing about the Internet is that each computer (each receiver or end user) indeed burdens the system by imposing on it its information needs (as is the case with other media) - but it also assists in the task of pushing information packets on to their destinations. It seems that this contribution to the system outweighs the burdens imposed upon it.
The network has a growth potential which is always bigger than the number of its users. It is as though television sets assisted in passing the signals received by them to other television sets. Every computer which is a member of the network is both a message (content) and a medium (active information channel), both a transmitter and a receiver. If 30% of all computers on the Net were to crash - there will be no operational impact (there is enormous built in redundancy). Obviously, some contents will no longer be available (information channels will be affected).
The interactivity of this medium is a guarantee against the monopolization of contents. Anyone with a thousand dollars can launch his/her own (reasonably sophisticated) site, accessible to all other Internet users. Space is available through home page providers.
The name of the game is no longer the production - it is the creative content (design), the content itself and, above all, the marketing of the site.
The Internet is an infinite and unlimited resource. This goes against the grain of the most basic economic concept (of scarcity). Each computer that joins the Internet strengthens it exponentially - and tens of thousands join daily. The Internet infrastructure (maybe with the exception of communication backbones) can accommodate an annual growth of 100% to the year 2020. It is the user who decides whether to increase the Internet's infrastructure by connecting his computer to it. By comparison: it is as though it were possible to produce and to broadcast radio programmes from every radio receiver. Each computer is a combination of studio and transmitter (on the Internet).
In reality, there is no other interactive medium except the Internet. Cable TV does not allow two-way data transfer (from user to cable operator). If the user wants to buy a product - he has to phone. Interactive television is an abject failure (the Sony and TCI experiments were terminated). This all is notwithstanding the combining of the Internet with satellite capabilities (VSAT) or with the revenant digital television.
The television screen is inferior when compared to the computer screen. Only the Internet is there as a true two-way possibility. The technological problems that besieged it are slowly dissipating.
The Internet allows for one-dimensional and bi - dimensional interactivity.
One-dimensional interactivity: fill in and dispatch a form, send and receive messages (through e-mail or v-mail).
Two-dimensional interactivity: to talk to someone while both parties work on an application, to see your conversant, to talk to him and to transfer documents to him for his perusal as the conversation continues apace.
This is no longer science fiction. In less than five years this will be as common as the telephone - and it will have a profound effect on the traditional services provided by the phone companies. Internet phones, Internet videophones - they will be serious competitors and the phone companies are likely to react once they begin to feel the heat. This will happen when the Internet will acquire black box features. Phone companies, software giants and cable TV operators are likely to end up owning big chunks of the lucrative future market of the Net.
The Solitary Medium
The Internet is NOT a popular medium. It is the medium of affluent executives who fully master the English language, as part of a wider general education.
Alternatively, it is the medium of academia (students, lecturers), or of children of the former, well-to-do group. In any case, it is not the medium of the "wide public". It is also a highly individualistic medium.
The Internet was an initiative of the DOD (Department of Defence in the USA). It was later "requisitioned" by the National science Fund (NSF) in the USA. This continuous involvement of the administration came to an end in 1995 when the medium was "privatized".
This "privatization" was a recognition of the civilian roots of the Internet. It was - and is still being - formed by millions of information-intoxicated users. They formed networks to exchange bits and pieces of mutual interest. Thus, as opposed to all other media, the Internet was not invented, nor was its market. The inventors of the telephone, the telegraph, the radio, the television and the compact disc - all invented previously non-existent markets for their products. It took time, effort and money to convince consumers that they needed these "gadgets".
By contrast, the Internet was invented by its own consumers and so was the market for it. Only when the latter was fully forged did producers and businessmen join in. Microsoft began to hesitantly test the internet waters only in 1995!
On Line Memories
The Internet is the only medium with online memory, very much like the human brain. The memories of these two - the Net and the Brain - are immediately accessible. In both, it is stored in sites and in both, it does not grow old or is eliminated. It is possible to find sites which commemorate events the same way that the human mind registers them. This is Net Memory. The history of a site can be reviewed. The Library of Congress stores the consecutive development phases of sites. The Internet is an amazing combination of data processing software, data, a record of all the activities which took place in connection with the data and the memory of these records. Only the human brain is recalled by these capacities: one language serves all these functions, the language of the neurones.
There is a much clearer distinction even in computers (not to mention more conventional media, such as television).
Raw English - the Language of Raw Materials
The following - apparently trivial - observation is critical:
All the other media provide us with processed, censored, "clean" content.
The Internet is a medium of raw materials, partly well organized (the rough equivalent of a newspaper) - and partly still in raw form, yesterday's supper.
This is a result of the immediate and absolute access afforded each user: access to programming and site publishing tools - as well as access to computer space on servers. This leads to varying degrees of quality of contents and content providers and this, in turn, prevents monopolization and cartelization of the information supply channels.
The users of the Internet are still undecided: do they prefer drafts or newspapers. They frequent well designed sites. There are even design competitions and awards. But they display a preference for sites that are constantly updated (ie closer in their nature to a raw material - rather than to a finished product). They prefer sites from which they can download material to quietly process at home, alone, on their PCs, at their leisure.
Even the concept of "interactivity" points at a preference for raw materials with which one can interact. For what is interactivity if not the active involvement of the user in the creation of content?
The Internet users love to be involved, to feel the power in their fingertips, they are all addicted to one form of power or another.
Similarly, a car completely automatically driven and navigated is not likely to sell well. Part of the experience of driving - the sensation of power ("power stirring") - is critical to the purchase decision.
It is not in vain that the metaphor for using the Internet is "surfing" (and not, let's say, browsing).
The problem is that the Internet is still predominantly an English language medium (though it is fast changing). It discriminates against those whose mother tongue is different. All software applications work best in English. Otherwise they have to be adapted and fitted with special fonts (Hebrew, Arabic, Japanese, Russian and Chinese - each present a different set of problems to overcome). This situation might change with the attainment of a critical mass of users (some say, 2 million per non-Anglophone country).
Comprehensive (Virtual) Reality
This is the first (though, probably, not the last) medium which allows the user to conduct his whole life within its boundaries.
Television presents a clear division: there is a passive viewer. His task is to absorb information and subject it to minimal processing. The Internet embodies a complete and comprehensive (virtual) reality, a full fledged alternative to real life.
The illusion is still in its infancy - and yet already powerful.
The user can talk to others, see them, listen to music, see video, purchase goods and services, play games (alone or with others scattered around the globe), converse with colleagues, or with users with the same hobbies and areas of interest, to play music together (separated by time and space).
And all this is very primitive. In ten years time, the Internet will offer its users the option of video conferencing (possibly, three dimensional, holographic). The participants' figures will be projected on big screens. Documents will be exchanged, personal notes, spreadsheets, secret counteroffers.
Virtual Reality games will become reality in less time. Special end-user equipment will make the player believe that he, actually, is part of the game (while still in his room). The player will be able to select an image borrowed from a database and it will represent him, seen by all the other players. Everyone will, thus, end up invading everyone else's private space - without encroaching on his privacy!
The Internet will be the medium of choice for phone and videophone communication (including conferencing).
Many mundane activities will be done through Internet: banking, shopping for standard items, etc.
The above are examples to the Internet's power and ability to replace our reality in due time. A world out there will continue to exist - but, more and more we will interact with it through the enchanted interface of the Net.
A Brave New Net
The future of a medium in the making is difficult to predict. Suffice it to mention the ridiculous prognoses which accompanied the PC (it is nothing but a gaming gadget, it is a replacement for the electric typewriter, will be used only by business). The telephone also had its share of ludicrous statements: no one - claimed the "experts" would like to avoid eye contact while talking. Or television: only the Nazi regime seemed to have fully grasped its potential (in the Berlin 1936 Olympics). And Bill Gates thought that the internet has a very limited future as late as 1995!!!
Still, this medium has a few characteristics which differentiate it from all its predecessors. Were these traits to be continuously and creatively exploited - a few statements can be made about the future of the Net with relative assurance.
Time and Space Independence
This is the first medium in history which does not require the simultaneous presence of people in space-time in order to facilitate the transfer of information. Television requires the existence of studio technicians, narrators and others in the transmitting side - and the availability of a viewer in the receiving side. The phone is dependent on the existence of two or more parties simultaneously.
With time, tools to bridge the time gap between transmitter and receiver were developed. The answering machine and the video cassette recorder both accumulate information sent by a transmitter - and release it to a receiver in a different space and time. But they are discrete, their storage volume is limited and they do not allow for interaction with the transmitter.
The Internet does not have these handicaps.
It facilitates the formation of "virtual organizations / institutions / businesses/ communities". These are groups of users that communicate in different points in space and time, united by a common goal or interest.
A few examples:
The Virtual Advertising Agency
A budget executive from the USA will manage the account of a hi-tech firm based in Sydney. He will work with technical experts from Israel and with a French graphics office. They will all file their work (through the intranet) in the Net, to be studied by the other members of this virtual group. These will enter the right site after clearing a firewall security software. They will all be engaged in flexiwork (flexible working times) and work from their homes or offices, as they please. Obviously, they will all abide by a general schedule.
They will exchange audio files (the jingle, for instance), graphics, video, colour photographs and text. They will comment on each other's work and make suggestions using e-mail. The client will witness the whole creative process and will be able to contribute to it. There is no technological obstacle preventing the participation of the client's clients, as well.
Virtual Rock'n'Roll
It is difficult to imagine that "virtual performances will replace real life ones.
The mass rock concert has its own inimitable sounds, palette and smells. But a virtual production of a record is on the cards and it is tens of percents cheaper than a normal production. Again, the participants will interact through the Intranet. They will swap notes, play their own instruments, make comments by e-mail, play together using an appropriate software. If one of them is grabbed by inspiration in the middle of (his) night, he will be able to preserve and pass on his ideas through the Net. The creative process will be aided by novel applications which enable the simultaneous transfer of sound over the Net. The processes which are already digitized (the mix, for one) will pose no problem to a digitized medium. Other applications will let the users listen to the final versions and even ask the public for his preview opinion.
Thus, even creative processes which are perceived as demanding human presence - will no longer do so with the advent of the Net.
Perhaps it is easier to understand a Virtual Law Firm or Virtual Accountants Office.
In the extreme, such a firm will not have physical offices, at all. The only address will be an e-mail address. Dozens of lawyers from all over the world with hundreds of specialities will be partners in such an office. Such an office will be truly multinational and multidisciplinary. It will be fast and effective because its members will electronically swap information (precedents, decrees, laws, opinions, research and plain ideas or professional experience).
It will be able to service clients in every corner of the globe. It will involve the transfer of audio files (NetPhones), text, graphics and video (crucial in certain types of litigation). Today, such information is sent by post and messenger services. Whenever different types of information are to be analysed - a physical meeting is a must. Otherwise, each type of information has to be transferred separately, using unique equipment for each one.
Simultaneity and interactivity - this will be the name of the game in the Internet. The professional term is "Coopetition" (cooperation between potential competitors, using the Internet).
Other possibilities: a virtual production of a movie, a virtual research and development team, a virtual sales force. The harbingers of the virtual university, the virtual classroom and the virtual (or distance) medical centre are here.
The Internet - Mother of all Media
The Internet is the technological solution to the mythological "home entertainment centre" debate.
It is almost universally agreed that, in the future, a typical home will have one apparatus which will give it access to all types of information. Even the most daring did not talk about simultaneous access to all the types of information or about full interactivity.
The Internet will offer exactly this: access to every conceivable type of information simultaneously , the ability to process them at the same time and full interactivity. The future image of this home centre is fairly clear - it is the timing that is not. It is all dependent on the availability of a wide (information) band - through which it will be possible to transfer big amounts of data at high speeds, using the same communications line. Fast modems were coupled with optic fibres and with faulty planning and vision of future needs. The cable television industry, for instance, is totally technologically unprepared for the age of interactivity. This is only partly the result of unwise, restrictive, legislation which prohibits data vendors from stepping on each others' toes. Phone companies were not permitted to provide Internet services or to transfer video through their wires - and cable companies were not allowed to transmit phone calls.
It is a question of time until these fossilized remains are removed by the almighty hand of the market. When this happens, the home centre is likely to look like this:
A central computer attached to a big screen divided to windows. Television is broadcast on one window. A software application is running on another. This could be an application connected to the television program (deriving data from it, recording it, collating it with pertinent data it picks out of databases). It could be an independent application (a computer game).
Updates from the New York Stock exchange flash at the corner of the screen and an icon blinks to signal the occurrence of a significant economic event.
A click of the mouse (?) and the news flash is converted to a voice message. Another click and your broker is on the InternetPhone (possibly seen in a third window on the screen). You talk, you send him a fax containing instructions and you compare notes. The fax was printed on a word processing application which opened up in yet another window.
Many believe that communication with the future generation of computers will be voice communication. This is difficult to believe. It is weird to talk to a machine (especially in the presence of other humans). We are seriously inhibited this way. Moreover, voice will interrupt other people's work or pleasure. It is also close to impossible to develop an efficient voice recognition software. Not to mention mishaps such as accidental activation.
The Friendly Internet
The Internet will not escape the processes experienced by all other media.
It will become easy to operate, user-friendly, in professional parlance.
It requires too much specialized information. It is not accessible to those who lack basic hardware and (Windows) software concepts.
Alas, most of the population falls into the latter category. Only 30 million "Windows" operating systems were sold worldwide at the end of 1996. Even if this constitutes 20% of all the copies (the rest being pirated versions) - it still represents less than 3% of the population of the world. And this, needless to say, is the world's most popular software (following the DOS operating system).
The Internet must rely on something completely different. It must have sophisticated, transparent-to-the-user search engines to guide to the cavernous chaotic libraries which will typify it. The search engines must include complex decision making algorithms. They must understand common languages and respond in mundane speech. They will be efficient and incredibly fast because they will form their own search strategy (supplanting the user's faulty use of syntax).
These engines, replete with smart agents will refer the user to additional data, to cultural products which reflect the user's history of preferences (or pronounced preferences expressed in answers to feedback questionnaires). All the decisions and activities of the user will be stored in the memory of his search engine and assist it in designing its decision making trees. The engine will become an electronic friend, advise the user, even on professional matters.
Cease-Fire
The cessation of hostilities between the Internet and some off-the-shelf software applications heralds the commencement of the integration between the desktop computer and the Net. This is a small step for the user - and a big one for humanity. The animosity which prevailed until recently between the UNIX systems and the HTML language and between most of the standard applications (headed by the Word Processors) - has officially ended with the introduction of Office 97 which incorporates full HTML capabilities. With the Office 2000 products, the distinctions between a web computing environment and a PC computing one - have all but vanished. Browsers can replace operating systems, word processors can browse, download and upload - the PC has finally been entirely absorbed by its offspring, the internet.
The Portable Document Format (PDF) enables the user to work the Internet off-line. In other words: text files will be loaded to word processors and edited off-line. The same applies to other types of files (audio, video).
Downloading time will be speeded up (today, it takes so long to download an audio or video file that, many times, it is impracticable).
This is not a trivial matter. The ability to switch between on-line and off-line states and to continue the work, uninterrupted - this ability means the integration of the PC in the Internet.
There are two competing views concerning the future of computer hardware and both of them acknowledge the importance of the Internet.
Bill Gates - Microsoft's legendary boss - says that the PC will continue to advance and strengthen its processing and computing powers. The Internet will be just another tool available through telecommunications, rather than through the ownership of hard copies of software and data. The Internet is perceived to be a tremendous external database, available for processing by tomorrow's desktops. This view is lately being gradually reversed in view of the incredible vitality and powers of the Internet.
Gates is converging on the worldview held by Sun Microsystems.
The future desktop will be a terminal, albeit powerful and with considerable processing, computing and communications capabilities. The name of the game will be the Internet itself. The terminal will access Internet databases (containing raw or processed data) and satisfy its information needs.
This terminal - equipped with languages the likes o |
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