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Versus web video conferenze conferenze ...
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"Corporate cambiamento e la tecnologia moderna presso l'avanguardia della nuova frontiera"
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| Internet: un mezzo o di un messaggio
Stato della rete Una relazione intermedia sul futuro di Internet Che sono i partecipanti che costituiscono Internet? Gli utenti - connesso alla rete e interagire con essa
Le comunicazioni di linee e le apparecchiature di comunicazione
Gli intermediari (ad esempio i fornitori di informazioni on-line o fornitori di accesso).
Produttori di hardware
Software autori e produttori (browser, sito di strumenti per lo sviluppo, applicazioni specifiche, agenti intelligenti, i motori di ricerca e altri).
Il "hitchhikers" (motori di ricerca, agenti intelligenti, Intelligenza Artificiale - AI - strumenti e altro)
I produttori di contenuti e fornitori
Fornitori di finanziari necessari (attualmente - corporate e istituzionale di cassa progressivamente sostituita dalla pubblicità denaro)
Il destino di ciascuno di questi componenti - separatamente e in solidarietà - determinerà il destino di Internet.
La prima fase di Internet la storia è stata dominata dai maghi del computer. Così, ogni tentativo di prevedere il suo futuro trattati principalmente con le sue componenti hardware e software.
Mezzi di esperti, sociologi, psicologi, pubblicità e marketing, i dirigenti sono stati lasciati fuori dalla sforzo collettivo per determinare il futuro volto di Internet.
Per quanto riguarda i contenuti, Internet non può essere attualmente definita come un mezzo. Non funziona come uno - ma è molto disordinata biblioteca, che incorpora la maggior parte degli scritti di non distinguere megalomaniacs. E 'l'ultima esperienza narcisistica. Il forte ingresso di case editrici e aggregatori di contenuti sta cambiando questa triste panorama, però.
Da quando l'invenzione della televisione non c'è stato nulla come l'accattonaggio per diventare un medium come Internet.
Tre analogie primavera in mente quando contemplando Internet nel suo stato attuale:
Un caotico biblioteca
Una rete neurale o questi ultimi giorni precedenti equivalente di reti (telegrafo, telefonia, ferrovie)
Un nuovo continente
Queste metafore di rivelarsi molto utile (anche business-saggio). Essi ci consentono di definire le opportunità commerciali integrati in Internet.
Ancora, non riescono ad aiutarci in previsione del suo futuro nella sua trasformazione in un mezzo.
Come funziona un invenzione diventare un mezzo? Che cosa succede a quando non diventano uno? Qual è la sottile linea che separa il funzionamento iniziale dell'invenzione dalla sua trasformazione in un nuovo media? In altre parole: quando si può certo dire che il progresso tecnologico ha dato vita a un nuovo media?
Questo lavoro si occupa, inoltre, con l'immagine di Internet, una volta trasformato in un mezzo.
Internet è il più insolito attributi nella storia dei mezzi di comunicazione.
Non ha alcuna struttura centrale o organizzazione. Si tratta di hardware e software indipendenti. È (quasi) non può essere soggetta alla legislazione o alla regolamentazione. Prendere in considerazione l'esempio di scaricare musica da internet - è che equivale a un atto di registrazione di brani musicali (una violazione di leggi sul copyright)? Questo è stato il punto cruciale della battaglia legale tra Diamond Multimedia (i produttori di Rio MP3 dispositivo), MP3.com e Napster e la registrazione del settore in America.
Internet's trasferimento dei dati canali non sono lineari - sono casuali. La maggior parte della sua "trasmissione" non può essere "ricevuti" a tutti. Essa permette ai più ristretta di narrowcasting attraverso l'uso di e-mail mailing list, gruppi di discussione, bacheche, stazioni radio private, e chat. E questa è solo una piccola porzione di un impressionante elenco di carenze. Queste idiosincrasie si forma anche la natura di Internet come un mezzo. Crescente di bizzarro radici - essa è tenuta a produrre frutto strano come un mezzo.
Sì, quali opportunità di business che Internet rappresenta?
Credo che essi si trovano in due grandi categorie:
Hardware e software connessi a Internet del futuro come mezzo
La creazione di contenuti, gestione e licenze
La mappa di Terra Internetica
Utenti
Come molti utenti di Internet ci sono? Come molti di loro hanno l'accesso al Web (World Wide Web - WWW) e usa? Non ci sono statistiche inequivocabile. Quelli che presumono di dare le risposte (compreso il ISOC - Internet Society) - contare su molto parziale e distorto delle risorse. Altri solo Bluff.
Eppure, tutti sembrano concordare sul fatto che vi sono almeno 100 milioni di partecipanti attivi in Nord America (la Nielsen e Commercio-Net relazioni).
Il futuro è, inevitabilmente, ancora più vaga superiore a quello degli attuali. Autorevoli società di consulenza prevedere 66 milioni di utenti attivi in 10 anni. IBM prevede 700 milioni di utenti. MCI è più modeste, con 300 milioni di euro. Alla fine del 1999 vi sono stati 130 milioni registrati (anche se non necessariamente attiva) gli utenti.
Internet - un elitario e sciovinista Medio
L'utente medio di Internet è giovane (30), con una formazione accademica e alto reddito. La percentuale di istruiti e bene-a-do tra gli utenti del Web è tre volte superiore a quello loro proporzione nella popolazione. Questo è in rapida evoluzione solo perché i loro figli sono loro adesione (6 milioni già avuto accesso a Internet, alla fine del 1996 - e sono stati raggiunti da un altro 24 milioni entro la fine del decennio). Questo può cambiare solo presidenziali a causa di iniziative per colmare il "digital divide" (da Al Gore's negli Stati Uniti a Mahatir di Maometto in Malesia), largesse aziendale e istituzionale partecipazione (ad esempio, Open Society in Europa orientale, Microsoft negli Stati Uniti). Tali sforzi si diffonderà i benefici di questa onnipotente strumento tra i meno privilegiati. Un po 'meno del 50% di tutti gli utenti sono uomini, ma essi sono responsabili per il 60% delle attività in rete (misurata dal traffico).
Sembra che le donne si limitano a posta elettronica (e-mail) e di shopping elettronica di beni e di servizi, anche se questo è in rapida evoluzione. Gli uomini preferiscono le informazioni, sia a causa di esigenze di carriera, o perché la conoscenza è potere.
La maggior parte degli utenti sono dei "experiencer" varietà. Essi sono responsabili del cambiamento sociale e innovative. Questa razza abita le università, i quartieri di moda e di tendenza vocazioni. Questo è il motivo per cui alcuni chiedo se Internet non è solo un altro moda, anche se uno incredibilmente resistente e promettenti.
La maggior parte degli utenti hanno a casa l'accesso a Internet - ancora, continuano a preferire di accedervi da lavoro, a loro spese del datore di lavoro, anche se questa preferenza è leggera e di essere erosi. La maggior parte degli utenti sono, quindi, di sfruttamento in natura. Ancora, non dobbiamo dimenticare che ci sono 37 milioni di famiglie dei lavoratori autonomi e questo eventualmente falsa il quadro statistico un po '.
Internet - Un fenomeno occidentale
Non africani, asiatici non (con l'eccezione di Israele e Giappone), non russo, né un fenomeno Terzo Mondo. Appartiene ad angolo retto ai ricchi, sazio mondo. E 'l'indulgenza di quelli che hanno tutto e la cui preoccupazione maggiore è la loro scelta di intrattenimento notturno. Tra il 50-60% di tutti gli utenti di Internet vivono negli Stati Uniti, il 5-10% in Canada. Internet sta recuperando in Europa (principalmente in Germania e in Scandinavia) e, nella sua forma di telefonia mobile (i-mode) in Giappone. Internet persi per il Minitel francese perché quest'ultimo fornisce più a livello locale e contenuti pertinenti a causa dei costi elevati delle comunicazioni e hardware.
Comunicazioni
La maggior parte dei proprietari di computer ancora in possesso di un modem 28800 bps. Questo è molto simile a guida di una bicicletta su una autostrada tedesca. Il 56600 bps sta gradualmente sostituendo il suo predecessore più lento (48% dei computer con modem) - ma anche questo è certo sufficiente. Per iniziare a godere di video e audio (in particolare l'ex) - la velocità di trasferimento dati devono essere 50 volte più veloce.
La metà delle famiglie negli Stati Uniti hanno almeno 2 telefoni e uno di loro è di solito dedicato al trattamento dei dati (fax o fax-modem).
ISDN potrebbe costituire a medio termine soluzione. Questo trasferimento di dati di rete è abbastanza rapida e copre il 70% del territorio degli Stati Uniti d'America. E 'in crescita del 100% ogni anno e le sue vendite sormontata 10 miliardi di USD nel 1995 / 6.
Purtroppo, è evidente che l'ISDN non è la risposta. E 'troppo lento, troppo user-unfriendly, ha una pessima interfaccia con altri tipi di rete, richiede hardware speciale. Non vi è alcun punto in materia di investimenti in soluzioni temporanee, quando la soluzione giusta è staring Internet in faccia, anche se non viene attuato a causa di circostanze politiche.
Un modem via cavo è 80 volte più veloci di quelli ISDN e 700 volte più veloce di una connessione modem 14400 bps. Tuttavia, non hanno problemi di accogliere una bidirezionale il trasferimento dei dati. Vi è anche necessario collegare le infrastrutture in fibra ottica che caratterizza le società via cavo per il vecchio rame coassiale che caratterizza le infrastrutture di telefonia. Via cavo utenti di impegnarsi appositamente personalizzato LAN (Ethernet) e l'hardware è costoso (anche se i prezzi degli apparecchi sono previsioni di crollo in quanto la domanda aumenta). Società di TV via cavo hanno semplicemente deciso di non investire in via di sviluppo la tecnologia. La legge (prima del 1996 il Communications Act) vietava loro di fare tutto ciò che non è stato un modo di trasferimento di video tramite cavi. Ora, con la più liberale regolativa ambiente, è una mera questione di tempo fino a quando la tecnologia è stata trovata.
In realtà, la maggior parte dei consumatori unico di cattivo rapporti con i clienti come il loro più grande problema con la società di TV via cavo - piuttosto che di tecnologia.
Esperimenti condotti con modem via cavo ha portato ad un raddoppio del tempo di utilizzo (da una media di 24 a 47 ore al mese per utente) che è stata interamente attribuibile ad una maggiore velocità. Questo si avvicina a una rivoluzione culturale nella ripartizione del tempo libero. Numericamente parlando: 7 milioni di famiglie negli Stati Uniti sono dotati di un doppio senso di trasferimento dati modem via cavo. Si tratta di un piccolo numero ed è di nessuno indovinare se costituisce una massa critica. Le vendite di tali modem importo di 1,3 miliardi di dollari ogni anno.
50% di tutti gli abbonati alla televisione via cavo hanno un PC a casa. A me sembra che la fusione delle due tecnologie è inevitabile.
Altre soluzioni tecnologiche - come ad esempio DSL, ADSL, e la più promettente via satellite a banda larga - sono in via di sviluppo e realizzati, anche se lentamente e inefficiente. La copertura è frustrante e sporadici periodi di attesa sono misurati in mesi.
Hardware e software
La maggior parte degli utenti di Internet (82%) lavora con il sistema operativo Windows. Circa l'11% proprietario di un Macintosh (graficamente molto più forte e più user-friendly). Solo il 7% continuare a lavorare su sistemi basati su UNIX (che, storicamente, ebbe Internet) - e questo numero è in rapida diminuzione. Un forte concorrente è la sorgente libero sistema operativo Linux.
Praticamente tutti gli utenti di navigare attraverso un software di navigazione. Un veloce diminuzione di minoranza (26%) l'uso di Netscape prodotti (principalmente Navigator e Communicator) e la maggioranza uso di Microsoft Explorer (più del 60% del mercato). Browser sono ora prodotti gratuiti e possono essere scaricati da Internet. Il più tardi nel 1997, era stato previsto da importanti società di consulenza Internet browser che le vendite si top $ 4 miliardi entro il 2000. Tali previsioni sbagliate ignorato la base etica di Internet: prodotti gratuiti, contenuto gratuito, accesso gratuito.
Browser sono in una grande trasformazione. La maggior parte di loro possono avere 3-D, Advanced Audio, Telefonia / voce / video mail (v-mail), l'instant messaging, e-mail, video conferenze e capacità integrate nella stessa sessione di navigazione. Essi diventeranno auto-personalizzazione, intelligente, interfacce Internet. Essi memorizzare la storia di uso e le preferenze degli utenti e adattarsi di conseguenza. Essi consentiranno di contenuti specificità: non identificabili agenti intelligenti setacciare Internet, formulare raccomandazioni, confrontare i prezzi, per beni e servizi e personalizzare i contenuti in linea con auto-adattamento di profili utente.
Due importanti sviluppi tecnologici devono essere considerati:
PDA (Personal Digital Assistants) - l'ultimo personali (e ufficio) comunicatori, facile da trasportare, che forniscono a Internet (accesso) Ovunque, indipendente da fornitori e fornitori e delle infrastrutture fisiche (in un velivolo, nel settore, in un cinema) .
La seconda tendenza: il trasferimento di dati senza fili e senza fili e-mail, sia per mezzo di cercapersone, telefoni cellulari, o attraverso più sofisticati apparecchi e ibridi come ad esempio i telefoni intelligenti. Geotech prodotti sono un ottimo esempio: e-mail, fax, telefonate e una connessione a Internet e ad altri, pubblica e aziendale, o di proprietà, basi di dati - tutti forniti dallo stesso gadget. Questo è l'incarnazione dei sistemi elettronici, fisicamente staccati, ufficio. Computer da indossare deve essere considerato come una parte di questa "onnipresente o pervasive computing" onda.
Non abbiamo modo di misurare - o intelligente indovinando - da parte degli Internet mobile nel futuro totale mercato Internet, ma è probabile che superano di gran lunga i "fissi". Wireless internet maglie bene con la tendenza di pervasive computing e intelligente casa e ufficio. La casa gadget come ad esempio forni a microonde, frigoriferi e così via collegherà ad internet tramite un interfaccia wireless per abbattere i dati, scaricare informazioni, per beni e servizi, di segnalare la loro condizione di base e svolgere funzioni di manutenzione. Location servizi specifici (navigazione, shopping raccomandazioni, sconti speciali, le offerte e le vendite, i servizi di emergenza) dipendono dalla confluenza tecnologica tra le coordinate GPS (stallite basato su tecnologia geolocation) e Internet senza fili.
Fornitori e intermediari
"Parassiti" intermediari occupano ciascuna fase di Internet catena alimentare.
Accesso a Internet è ancora fornito da "muto tubi" - i fornitori di servizi Internet (ISP)
Il contenuto è ancora preservare il contenuto dei fornitori e così via.
Alcuni di questi intermediari sono destinati a scomparire gradualmente o di subire una sostanziale diminuzione della loro quota di mercato. Anche "giardini" di contenuti (ad esempio AOL) sono a rischio.
A titolo di confronto, anche oggi, i fornitori di servizi Internet hanno quattro volte il numero di abbonati (in tutto il mondo) come AOL. Certo, questo pregiudichi la qualità di Internet - l'infrastruttura gestito da società il telefono cellulare è lento e spesso soccombe a strozzature. L'inequivocabile l'intenzione di telefonia giganti di diventare grandi attori del mercato Internet dovrebbero anche essere prese in considerazione. Il telefono cellulare società, quindi, svolgere un duplice ruolo: essi garantire l'accesso alle proprie infrastrutture ai loro concorrenti (a volte, all'interno di un vero e proprio monopolio o effettivo) - ed essi saranno in concorrenza con i loro clienti. Lo stesso può essere detto sulla società di TV via cavo. Controllo l'ultimo miglio per l'utente della dimora è il prossimo grande business di Internet. Aziende come AOL sono svantaggiati di queste tendenze. E 'imperativo per AOL per ottenere la parità di accesso al cavo spina dorsale della società e le infrastrutture se vuole sopravvivere. Quindi la sua fusione con Time Warner.
Non c'è da meravigliarsi che molti dei fornitori di servizi Internet giudice questa intrusione nel loro territorio di telefono cellulare e via cavo alle imprese di costituire una concorrenza sleale. Tuttavia, non bisogna dimenticare che le barriere all'ingresso sono molto bassi nel mercato ISP. Ci vuole un minimo di investimento per diventare un ISP. 200 modem (il cui costo 200 dollari ciascuno) sono sufficienti per soddisfare le esigenze dei media 2000 utenti che generano un reddito di 500000 dollari l'anno per il provider di servizi Internet. Router sono ugualmente a buon mercato come oggi. Questo è un buon ritorno sull'investimento l'ISP del capitale, senza dubbio.
La hitchhikers
Web ospita l'equivalente di 100 miliardi di pagine. MOTORE DI RICERCA applicazioni vengono utilizzati per individuare informazioni specifiche in questo impressionante, costantemente il moltiplicarsi di biblioteca. Saranno sostituiti, nel prossimo futuro, di "Knowledge Structures" - gigantesco enciclopedie, il cui testo contiene riferimenti (hyperlink) ad altri, pertinenti, siti. Il futuro di gran lunga testimonianza la nascita di "Archivi intelligente" e il "Giornali personali" (per leggere ulteriori spiegazioni dettagliate). Alcune applicazioni software di riassumere il contenuto, gli altri e automaticamente indice di riferimento e di collegamento ipertestuale testi (virtuale bibliografie). Una media utente avrà un in corso interesse per 500 siti. Software speciale saranno necessari per gestire i libri di indirizzo ( "segnalibri", "preferiti") e contenuto ( "intelligente AddressBooks"). Il fenomeno dei motori di ricerca dedicato alla ricerca di un certo numero di motori di ricerca contemporaneamente crescerà ( "Hyper-o meta-motori"). Meta-motori di lavorare in background e scaricare i collegamenti ipertestuali e di pubblicità (questi ultimi è essenziale per garantire l'interesse finanziario del sito sviluppatori e proprietari). Software statistico che tiene traccia ( "quanto tempo ciò che è stato fatto"), monitor ( "che cosa fanno, mentre nel sito") e conta ( "quanti") ai visitatori di siti già esistente. Alcune di queste domande sono di back-office facilities (contabilità, di follow-up, collezioni, anche di tele-marketing). Essi forniscono tutti i tempi e di alcuni sentieri per permettere di revisione contabile.
Ma questo è un piccolo frammento di rapido sviluppo net-scape: le persone e le imprese che fare una vita da Internet follia piuttosto che da Internet stessa. Tutti sanno che non vi sia più denaro in lezioni su come fare soldi su Internet - che in Internet. Questa massima vale ancora, nonostante i 32 miliardi di dollari nel commercio elettronico nel 1998. Business to Consumer (B2C) le vendite crescere con vigore meno di Business to Business (B2B) e le vendite sono suscettibili di subire un altro colpo con l'avvento del Peer to Peer (P2P) le reti di computer. Quest'ultimo PC consentono di agire come server e quindi consentire lo scambio di file di computer asmong utenti collegati (con o senza una directory centrale).
Fornitori di contenuti
Questo è il settore meno di Internet. Essi perdono tutti i soldi (anche e-tailers che offrono di base, standardizzata merci - libri, CD - con l'eccezione, fino al 11 settembre di siti collegati al turismo). Nessuno li ringrazia per i contenuti prodotti con l'investimento di un grande sforzo e un sacco di soldi. Un qualitativi, pienamente abilitato sito commercio costi fino a 5000000 USD, ad esclusione di manutenzione del sito e del cliente e del visitatore servizi. I fornitori di contenuti sono costantemente criticato per la mancanza di creatività o per troppa creatività. Più e più viene loro richiesto. Sono sfruttati da intermediari, hitchhikers e altri parassiti. Questo è tutto un via-sparare dei ethos di Internet come una libera zona contenuto.
Più di 100 milioni di uomini e donne costantemente accedere al Web - ma questo numero sta a crescere (il mediano di previsione: 300 milioni di euro). Ancora, mentre il Web è utilizzato dal 35% di quelli con accesso a Internet - e-mail è utilizzato da oltre il 60%. E-mail è di gran lunga la più comune funzione ( "killer app") e applicazioni specializzate (Eudora, Internet Mail, Microsoft Exchange) - libera o un annuncio sponsorizzato - tenerlo accessibile a tutti e user-friendly.
La maggior parte degli utenti come navigare (sfogliare, visitare siti) la rete senza motivo o per obiettivo in mente. Questo rende difficile applicare tecniche di marketing tradizionali.
Qual è il significato di "destinatari" o "quote di mercato" in questo contesto?
Se un surfer visite di siti che si occupano di sesso e aberranti fisica nucleare nella stessa sessione - che cosa fare di esso?
Il pubblico e legislativo contro il momento della raccolta dei surfisti 'di dati da Internet ad agenzie e altri siti Web - ha portato a una crescente ignoranza per quanto riguarda il profilo degli utenti di Internet, i loro demografia, le abitudini, le preferenze e dislikes.
Persone come il molto atto di surf. Vogliono essere intrattenuti, allora utilizzare Internet come uno strumento di lavoro, soprattutto nel servizio del loro datore di lavoro, che, di solito foots il disegno di legge. Utenti amore download gratuiti (principalmente software).
"Free" è una parola chiave su Internet: è utilizzato per appartengono al governo statunitense e un gruppo di università. Utenti come informazioni, con particolare attenzione ai dati e notizie sui nuovi prodotti. Ma loro non piace fare acquisti in rete - ancora. Solo il 38% di tutti i navigatori effettuato un acquisto nel corso del 1998.
67% di essi adoriamo il sesso virtuale. Il 50% dei siti più visitati sono spesso siti porno (questo ricorda dei primi giorni del videoregistratore - videoregistratore). Persone dedicare la stessa quantità di tempo per guardare videocassette o televisione come fanno a navigare in rete. Internet sembra cannibalize televisione.
Il sesso è seguito da musica, sport, salute, televisione, computer, il cinema, politica, animali domestici e cucina siti. Persone sono disegnati per i giochi interattivi. Internet sarà possibile consentire alle persone di giocare, se non ostacolato dalla legislazione. 10 miliardi di USD nel gioco d'azzardo sono previsti fondi per passare attraverso le maglie della rete. Ciò ha senso: nulla come un computer per fornire immediata (monetaria e psicologica) premi.
Commercio in rete è un altro preferito. Internet è un mezzo perfetto per la vendita di software e altri prodotti digitali (e-books). Il problema della sicurezza dei dati è in procinto di essere risolto con la SET (o altro) standard mondiale.
Già nel 1995, Internet ha avuto più di 100 centri commerciali virtuali visitato da 2,5 milioni di acquirenti (e probabilmente il doppio di questo numero nel 1996).
Le previsioni per il 1999 sono stati tra i 1-5 miliardi di dollari al netto di shopping (più 2 miliardi di dollari attraverso on-line, i fornitori di informazioni, come ad esempio AOL e CompuServe) - deplorevolmente rivelata inesatta. Il numero effettivo nel 1998 è stato di 7 volte la previsione per il 1999.
E 'anche opinione diffusa che circa il 20% del bilancio familiare passerà attraverso Internet come di moneta elettronica e di questo ammonta a 150 miliardi di USD.
Internet diventerà un gigante inter-bancario sistema di compensazione e vario tipo ATM bancari e servizi di investimento saranno forniti attraverso di esso. In fondo, tutto può essere fatto attraverso Internet: alla ricerca di un posto di lavoro, per esempio.
Ancora, Internet non potrà mai sostituire l'interazione umana. Le persone tendono a preferire personale bancario, vetrine e sociale esperienza del centro commerciale di Internet banking ed e-commerce, o m-commerce.
Alcuni siti già lo sport gli annunci. Questo non è un cattivo modo per coprire le spese, se la maggior parte gli annunci sono gratuiti (è la pubblicità che attirare che le questioni).
Un'altra tendenza è in via di sviluppo-sito web di classificazione e di critica. Sarà trattato il modo in cui oggi sono edizioni a stampa. Avrà una limitata influenza sulle decisioni di consumo di alcuni utenti. Browser già lo sport pulsanti etichettati "What's New" e "What's Hot". La maggior parte dei motori di ricerca consigliamo di siti specifici. Gli utenti sono cauti. Studi scoperto che nessun utente, non importa quanto pesante, ha sempre ri-visitato più di 200 siti, un minuscolo numero. Il 10 piu 'conosciuti siti web (Yahoo!, MSN, ecc) ha attirato più di 50% di tutti i traffico Internet. Sito raccomandazione servizi spesso casuale produrre - a volte, sbagliato - selezioni per i loro utenti. Ci sono anche preoccupazioni per questioni di privacy. Backlah contro la Amazon "i lettori 'circoli" è un esempio.
Critica web, che oggi opera principalmente per la stampa, saranno pubblicati i loro merci sulla rete e collegamento a software intelligenti che collegamento ipertestuale, raccomandare e si riferiscono. Alcuni web critici saranno identificati con applicazioni specifiche - davvero, sistemi esperti, che permetterà di integrare le loro conoscenze e di esperienze.
Il Denaro
Dove il capitale necessario per finanziare tutti questi sviluppi veniamo?
Ancora una volta, ci sono due scuole:
Si dice che i siti saranno finanziati attraverso la pubblicità - e quindi di motori di ricerca e altre applicazioni accessibili da parte degli utenti.
Alcuni ASP (Application Service Provider che affittano l'accesso al software applicativo che risiede sul loro server) stanno prendendo in considerazione questo modello.
La seconda versione è più semplice e permette l'esistenza di non-commerciali di contenuti.
Essa si propone di raccogliere somme trascurabile (centesimi o frazioni di centesimi) da ogni utente per ogni visita ( "micro-pagamenti") o un abbonamento a pagamento. Accumulato in questi centesimi o canoni di abbonamento permetterà ai proprietari di vecchi siti di aggiornare e mantenere e incoraggiare gli imprenditori a sviluppare nuovi. Alcuni aggregatori di contenuti (in particolare digitale di libri di testo) hanno adottato questo modello (Questia, Fathom).
Gli aderenti della prima scuola puntato il 5 milioni di dollari investiti in pubblicità nel corso del 1995 e al 60 milioni di investimenti nel corso del 1996.
Suoi oppositori a punto esattamente gli stessi numeri: ridicolmente piccolo quando in contrasto con più tradizionali modalità di pubblicità. Il potenziale della pubblicità sulla rete è limitata a 1,5 miliardi di dollari ogni anno, nel 1998, ha tuonato i pessimisti (molti pensavano che anche un mezzo che sarebbe molto bello). La cifra reale è stato il doppio della previsione, ma ancora deplorevolmente piccolo e inadeguato a sostenere Internet il contenuto di sviluppo.
Confrontare queste cifre per la vendita di software per Internet ($ 4 miliardi di euro), Internet Hardware ($ 3 miliardi di euro), fornitura di accesso a Internet ($ 4,2 miliardi di euro) nel 1995.
Hembrecht e Quist stima che Internet industrie connesse scooped fino 23,2 miliardi di dollari ogni anno (un rapporto pubblicato a metà del 1996).
E quello che segue è la pubblicità più difficilmente enocuraging.
Interagisce il consumatore e il prodotto è consegnato a lui. -- La fase di consegna - è un lento e enervating epilogo per la vicenda emozionante di ordinare attraverso la rete alla velocità della luce. Anche molti consumatori si lamentano del fatto che ancora non ricevono ciò che ha ordinato, o che è in ritardo di consegna e dei prodotti difettosi.
La soluzione può essere trovata nel processo di integrazione di pubblicità e di contenuto. Pointcast, per esempio, pubblicità integrata nel suo telegiornali, continuamente in streaming per l'utente dello schermo, anche quando non attiva (che ha fornito una attiva scaricabili screen saver e ticker in una "push technology"). Scaricamento di musica digitale, video e testo (e-books) porterà a gratificazione immediata dei consumatori e aumenteranno l'efficacia della pubblicità.
Qualunque sia il caso, un livello uniforme, concordato sistema di rating come base per la ricarica inserzionisti, è assolutamente necessario. Vi è inoltre la questione di che cosa l'inserzionista per pagare?
Molti inserzionisti (Procter & Gamble, per esempio) si rifiutano di pagare in base al numero di hit o le impressioni (= voci, visite ad un sito). Che accetta di pagare solo in base al numero di volte che il loro annuncio è stato colpito (pagine viste).
Questa diversa base di calcolo è in grado di sconvolgere tutte le entrate scenari.
Pochissimi siti di importanza, sono rispettabili giornali su abbonamento. Dow Jones (Wall Street Journal) e The Economist, per citarne solo due.
Questo sarà diventato il tendenza prevalente?
Internet come una metafora
Tre metafore vengono in mente quando si considera Internet "filosoficamente".
Internet come caotici Biblioteca
1. Il problema della catalogazione
Internet è un assortimento di miliardi di pagine contenenti informazioni. Alcuni di essi sono visibili e altri sono generati da banche dati nascosti dagli utenti 'richieste ( "Invisible Internet").
Internet non presenta alcun modo visibile, la classificazione, o classificazione. In contrapposizione a "classica" biblioteche, nessuno ha inventato uno standard di catalogazione (ricordate Dewey?). Questo è talmente necessaria che è sorprendente che non sia stato ancora inventato. Alcuni siti effettivamente applicare il Syatem Decimale Dewey (Suite101). Altri un'impostazione di base per la struttura di directory (Open Directory, Yahoo!, Look Smart e altri).
Ha avuto un tale norma esisteva (un concordato numerico metodo di catalogazione) - ogni sito sarebbe auto-classificati. Siti che hanno interesse a fare in modo di aumentare i tassi di penetrazione e la loro visibilità. Questo, naturalmente, avrebbe eliminato la necessità per l'odierna clunky, incomplete e (molto) inefficienti i motori di ricerca.
Un sito il cui numero inizia con 900 verrà immediatamente identificato come fare con la storia e la classificazione più saranno incoraggiati a consentire fine sezioni ad emergere. Un esempio di tale tecnologia emergente di "auto classificazione" e di "auto-pubblicazione" (anche se limitato a risorse accademiche) è il "Academic Resource canale" di Scindex.
Gli utenti non saranno tenuti a ricordare risme di numeri. Browser futuro sarà simile a cataloghi, molto come le applicazioni utilizzate nei moderni giorno biblioteche. Confrontare questa utopia alle attuali dystopy. Lotta con gli utenti risme di materiale irrilevante per raggiungere finalmente un parziale e deludente destinazione. Allo stesso tempo, probabilmente ci sono siti web che corrispondono esattamente i poveri esigenze dell'utente. Eppure, ciò che attualmente determina la possibilità di un felice incontro tra l'utente ed il contenuto - sono i capricci del motore di ricerca specifici utilizzati e cose come meta-tag, i titoli, una tassa pagata, o il diritto di apertura frasi.
2. Schermo rispetto Page
Schermo del computer, a causa di limitazioni fisiche (dimensioni, il fatto che essa deve essere scorse) non riesce a competere efficacemente con la pagina stampata. Quest'ultimo è ancora più geniale medio ancora inventato per lo stoccaggio e il rilascio di informazioni testuali. Concesso: schermo di un computer è meglio a mettere in luce discreta di unità di informazioni. Così, questa attira l'Batlle linee: strutture (pagine stampate) contro unità (schermo), il continuo e facilmente reversibile rispetto al discreto.
La soluzione è un modo efficiente per tradurre computer schermi di materiale stampato. Si stenta a credere, ma non di simile esiste. Schermi di computer sono ancora ostile a off-line stampa. In altre parole: se un utente copie informazioni da Internet suo Word Processor (o viceversa, se è per questo) - egli finisce con un frammentato, pieno di immondizia e non estetico documento.
Pochissimi sito sviluppatori di provare a fare qualcosa al riguardo - ancor meno successo.
3. Internet e il CD-ROM
Uno dei più grandi errori di fornitori di contenuti è che non si mescolino contenuto o di avere un "statico-dinamico di interazione".
Internet può essere facilmente interagire con altri mezzi di informazione (in particolare con CD audio e con CD-ROM) - anche se l'utente naviga.
Esempi abbondano:
Un catalogo di shopping possono essere distribuiti su un CD-ROM di posta elettronica. The Internet Site will allow the user to order a product previously selected from the catalogue, while off-line. The catalogue could also be updated through the site (as is done with CD-ROM encyclopedias).
The advantages of the CD-ROM are clear: very fast access time (dozens of times faster than the access to a site using a dial up connection) and a data storage capacity tens of times bigger than the average website.
Another example: a CD-ROM can be distributed, containing hundreds of advertisements. The consumer will select the ad that he wants to see and will connect to the Internet to view a relevant video.
He could then also have an interactive chat (or a conference) with a salesperson, receive information about the company, about the ad, about the advertising agency which created the ad - and so on.
CD-ROM based encyclopedias (such as the Britannica, Encarta, Grolier) already contain hyperlinks which carry the user to sites selected by an Editorial Board.
But CD-ROMs are probably a doomed medium. This industry chose to emphasize the wrong things. Storage capacity increased exponentially and, within a year, desktops with 80 Gb hard disks will be common. Moreover, the Network Computer - the stripped down version of the personal computer - will put at the disposal of the average user terabytes in storage capacity and the processing power of a supercomputer. What separates computer users from this utopia is the communication bandwidth. With the introduction of radio, statellite, ADSL broadband services, cable modems and compression methods - video (on demand), audio and data will be available speedily and plentifully.
The CD-ROM, on the other hand, is not mobile. It requires installation and the utilization of sophisticated hardware and software. This is no user friendly push technology. It is nerd-oriented. As a result, CD-ROMs are not an immediate medium. There is a long time lapse between the moment they are purchased and the moment the first data become accessible to the user. Compare this to a book or a magazine. Data in these oldest of media is instantly available to the user and allows for easy and accurate "back" and "forward" functions.
Perhaps the biggest mistake of CD-ROM manufacturers has been their inability to offer an integrated hardware and software package. CD-ROMs are not compact. A Walkman is a compact hardware-cum-software package. It is easily transportable, it is thin, it contains numerous, user-friendly, sophisticated functions, it provides immediate access to data. So does the discman or the MP3-man. This cannot be said of the CD-ROM. By tying its future to the obsolete concept of stand-alone, expensive, inefficient and technologically unreliable personal computers - CD-ROMs have sentenced themselves to oblivion (with the possible exception of reference material).
4. On-line Reference Libraries
These already exist. A visit to the on-line Encyclopaedia Britannica exemplifies some of the tremendous, mind boggling possibilities:
Each entry is hyperlinked to sites on the Internet which deal with the same subject matter. The sites are carefully screened (though more detailed descriptions of each site should be available - they could be prepared either by the staff of the encyclopaedia or by the site owner). Links are available to data in various forms, including audio and video. Everything can be copied to the hard disk or to CD-ROMs.
This is a new conception of a knowledge centre - not just an assortment of material. It is modular, can be added on and subtracted from. It can be linked to a voice Q&A centre. Queries by subscribers can be answered by e-mail, by fax, posted on the site, hard copies can be sent by post. This "Trivial Pursuit" service could be very popular - there is considerable appetite for "Just in Time Information". The Library of Congress - together with a few other libraries - is in the process of making just such a service available to the public (CDRS - Collaborative Digital Reference Service).
5. The Feedback Option
Hard to believe, but very few sites encourage their guests to express an opinion about the site, its contents and its aesthetics. This indicates an ossified mode of thinking about the most dynamic mass medium ever created, the only interactive mass medium yet. Each site must absolutely contain feedback and rating questionnaires. It has the side benefit of creating a database of the visitors to the site.
Moreover, each site can easily become a "knowledge centre".
Let us consider a site dedicated to advertising and marketing:
It can contain feedback questionnaires (what do you think about the site, suggestions for improvement, mailto and leave message facilities, etc.)
It can contain rating questionnaires (rate these ads, these TV or radio shows, these advertising campaigns).
It can allocate some space to clients to create their home pages in (these home pages could lead to their sites, to other sites, to other sections of the host site - and, in any case, will serve as a display of the creative talent of the site owners). This will give the site owners a picture of the distribution of the areas of interest of the visitors to the site.
The site can include statistical, tracking and counter software.
Such a site can refer to hundreds of useful shareware applications (which deal with different aspects of advertising and marketing, for instance). Developers of applications will be able to use the site to promote their products. Other practical applications could also be referred to from - or reside on - the site (browsers, games, search engines).
And all this can be organized in a portal structure (for instance, by adopting the open software of the Open Directory Project).
6. Internet Derived CD-ROMS
The Internet is an enormous reservoir of freely available, public domain, information.
With a minimal investment, this information can be gathered into coherent, theme oriented, cheap CD-ROMs. Each such CD-ROM can contain:
Addresses of web sites specific to the subject matter
The first pages of each of these sites
Hyperlinks to each of the sites
A browser
Access to all the important search engines
Recommended search strings (it is extremely difficult to formulate a successful search in the Internet, it takes expertise. "Ready-made searches" will be a hit in the future, as the number of sites grows)
A dictionary of professional terms, a speller and a thesaurus
A list of general reference sites
Shareware specific to the field
7. Publishing
The Internet is the world's largest "publisher", by far. It "publishes" FAQs (Frequent Answers and Questions regarding almost every technical matter in the world), e-zines (electronic versions of magazines, not a very profitable pursuit), the electronic versions of dailies (together with on-line news and information services), reference and other e-books, monographs, articles and minutes of discussions ("threads"), among other types of material.
Publishing an e-zine has a few advantages: it promotes the sales of the printed edition, it helps to sign on subscribers and it leads to the sale of advertising space. The electronic archive function (see next section) saves the need to file back issues, the space required to do so and the irritating search for data items.
The future trend is a combined subscription: electronic (mainly for the archival value and the ability to hyperlink to additional information) and printed (easier to browse current issue).
The electronic daily presents other advantages:
It allows for immediate feedback and for flowing, almost real-time, communication between writers and readers. The electronic version, therefore, acquires a gyroscopic function: a navigation instrument, always indicating deviations from the "right" course. The content can be instantly updated and immediacy has its premium (remember the Lewinsky affair?).
Strangely, this (conventional) field was the first to develop a "virtual reality" facet. There are virtual "magazine stalls". They look exactly like the real thing and the user can buy a paper using his mouse.
Specialty hand held devices already allow for downloading and storage of vast quantities of data (up to 4000 print pages). The user gains access to libraries containing hundreds of texts, adapted to be downloaded, stored and read by the specific device. Again, a convergence of standards is to be expected in this field as well (the final contenders will probably be Adobe's PDF against Microsoft's MS-Reader).
Broadly, e-books are treated either as:
Continuation of print books (p-books) by other means
or as
A whole new publishing universe.
Since p-books are a more convenient medium then e-books - they will prevail in any straightforward "medium replacement" or "medium displacement" battle.
In other words, if publishers will persist in the simple and straightforward conversion of p-books to e-books - then e-books are doomed. They are simply inferior to the price, comfort, tactile delights, browseability and scanability of p-books.
But e-books - being digital - open up a vista of hitherto neglected possibilities. These will only be enhanced and enriched by the introduction of e-paper and e-ink. Among them:
Hyperlinks within the e-book and without it - to web content, reference works, etc.
Embedded instant shopping and ordering links
Divergent, user-interactive, decision driven plotlines
Interaction with other e-books (using a wireless standard) - collaborative authoring
Interaction with other e-books - gaming and community activities
Automatically or periodically updated content
Multimedia
Database, Favourites and History Maintenance (reading habits, shopping habits, interaction with other readers, plot related decisions and much more)
Automatic and embedded audio conversion and translation capabilities
Full wireless piconetworking and scatternetworking capabilities
The technology is still not fully there. Wars rage in both the wireless and the ebook realms. Platforms compete. Standards clash. Gurus debate. But convergence is inevitable and with it the e-book of the future.
8. The Archive Function
The Internet is also the world's biggest cemetery: tens of thousands of deadbeat sites, still accessible - the "Ghost Sites" of this electronic frontier.
This, in a way, is collective memory. One of the Internet's main functions will be to preserve and transfer knowledge through time. It is called "memory" in biology - and "archive" in library science. The history of the Internet is being documented by search engines (Google) and specialized services (Alexa) alike.
The Internet as a Collective Brain
Drawing a comparison from the development of a human baby - the human race has just commenced to develop its neural system.
The Internet fulfils all the functions of the Nervous System in the body and is, both functionally and structurally, pretty similar. It is decentralized, redundant (each part can serve as functional backup in case of malfunction). It hosts information which is accessible in a few ways, it contains a memory function, it is multimodal (multimedia - textual, visual, audio and animation).
I believe that the comparison is not superficial and that studying the functions of the brain (from infancy to adulthood) - amounts to perusing the future of the Net itself.
1. The Collective Computer
To carry the metaphor of "a collective brain" further, we would expect the processing of information to take place in the Internet, rather than inside the end-user's hardware (the same way that information is processed in the brain, not in the eyes). Desktops will receive the results and communicate with the Net to receive additional clarifications and instructions and to convey information gathered from their environment (mostly, from the user).
This is part fo the philosophy of the JAVA programming language. It deals with applets - small bits of software - and links different computer platforms by means of software.
Put differently:
Future servers will contain not only information (as they do today) - but also software applications. The user of an application will not be forced to buy it. He will not be driven into hardware-related expenditures to accommodate the ever growing size of applications. He will not find himself wasting his scarce memory and computing resources on passive storage. Instead, he will use a browser to call a central computer. This computer will contain the needed software, broken to its elements (=applets, small applications). Anytime the user wishes to use one of the functions of the application, he will siphon it off the central computer. When finished - he will "return" it. Processing speeds and response times will be such that the user will not feel at all that it is not with his own software that he is working (the question of ownership will be very blurred in such a world). This technology is available and it provoked a heated debated about the future shape of the computing industry as a whole (desktops - really power packs - or network computers, a little more than dumb terminals). Applications are already offered to corporate users by ASPs (Application Service Providers).
In the last few years, scientists put the combined power of the computers linked to the internet at any given moment to perform astounding feats of distributed parallel processing. Millions of PCs connected to the net co-process signals from outer space, meteorological data and solve complex equations. This is a prime example of a collective brain in action.
2. The Intranet - a Logical Extension of the Collective Computer
LANs (Local Area Networks) are no longer a rarity in corporate offices. WANs (wide Area Networks) are used to connect geographically dispersed organs of the same legal entity (branches of a bank, daughter companies, a sales force). Many LANs are wireless.
The intranet / extranet and wireless LANs will be the winners. They will gradually eliminate both fixed line LANs and WANs. The Internet offers equal, platform-independent, location-independent and time of day - independent access to all the members of an organization.Sophisticated firewall security application protects the privacy and confidentiality of the intranet from all but the most determined and savvy hackers.
The Intranet is an inter-organizational communication network, constructed on the platform of the Internet and which enjoys all its advantages. The extranet is open to clients and suppliers as well.
The company's server can be accessed by anyone authorized, from anywhere, at any time (with local - rather than international - communication costs). The user can leave messages (internal e-mail or v-mail), access information - proprietary or public - from it and to participate in "virtual teamwork" (see next chapter).
By the year 2002, a standard intranet interface will emerge. This will be facilitated by the opening up of the TCP/IP communication architecture and its availability to PCs. A billion USD will go just to finance intranet servers - or, at least, this is the median forecast.
The development of measures to safeguard server routed inter-organizational communication (firewalls) is the solution to one of two obstacles to the institution of the Intranet. The second problem is the limited bandwidth which does not permit the efficient transfer of audio (not to mention video).
It is difficult to conduct video conferencing through the Internet. Even the voices of discussants who use internet phones come out (slightly) distorted.
All this did not prevent 95% of the Fortune 1000 from installing intranet. 82% of the rest intend to install one by the end of this year. Medium to big size American firms have 50-100 intranet terminals per every internet one.
At the end of 1997, there were 10 web servers per every other type of server in organizations. The sale of intranet related software was projected to multiply by 16 (to 8 billion USD) by the year 1999.
One of the greatest advantages of the intranet is the ability to transfer documents between the various parts of an organization. Consider Visa: it pushed 2 million documents per day internally in 1996.
An organization equipped with an intranet can (while protected by firewalls) give its clients or suppliers access to non-classified correspondence. This notion has its charm. Consider a newspaper: it can give access to all the materials which were discarded by the editors. Some news are fit to print - yet are discarded because of space limitations. Still, someone is bound to be interested. It costs the newspaper close to nothing (the material is, normally, already computer-resident) - and it might even generate added circulation and income. It can be even conceived as an "underground, non-commercial, alternative" newspaper for a wholly different readership.
The above is but one example of the possible use of the intranet to communicate with the organization's consumer base.
3. Mail and Chat
The Internet (its e-mail possibilities) is eroding traditional mail. The market share of the post office in conveying messages by regular mail has dwindled from 77% to 62% (1995). E-mail has expanded to capture 36% (up from 19%).
90% of customers with on-line access use e-mail from time to time and 60% work with it regularly. More than 2 billion messages traverse the internet daily.
E-mail applications are available as freeware and are included in all browsers. Thus, the Internet has completely assimilated what used to be a separate service, to the extent that many people make the mistake of thinking that e-mail is a feature of the Internet. Microsoft continues to incorporate previously independent applications in its browsers - a behaviour which led to the 1999 anti-trust lawsuit against it.
The internet will do to phone calls what it has done to mail. Already there are applications (Intel's, Vocaltec's, Net2Phone) which enable the user to conduct a phone conversation through his computer. The voice quality has improved. The discussants can cut into each others words, argue and listen to tonal nuances. Today, the parties (two or more) engaging in the conversation must possess the same software and the same (computer) hardware. In the very near future, computer-to-regular phone applications will eliminate this requirement. And, again, simultaneous multi-modality: the user can talk over the phone, see his party, send e-mail, receive messages and transfer documents - without obstructing the flow of the conversation.
The cost of transferring voice will become so negligible that free voice traffic is conceivable in 3-5 years. Data traffic will overtake voice traffic by a wide margin.
This beats regular phones.
The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of the parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by the application (or the user's likeness mapped into the software and superimposed on the the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".
Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.
Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all the time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate the news, like "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in the future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.
4. E-cash
In 1996, the four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through the Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom by a factor of 50 to 25 billion USD. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within the site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. Dedicated visitors will not be deterred by such trifles.
5. The Virtual Organization
The Internet allows simultaneous communication between an almost unlimited number of users. This is coupled with the efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files.
This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are the real core of the Internet revolution: the virtual collaborative ("Follow the Sun") modes.
Examples:
A group of musicians will be able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;
Advertising agencies will be able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interactive mode;
Cinema and TV films will be produced from disparate geographical spots through the teamwork of people who never meet, except through the net.
These examples illustrate the concept of the "virtual community". Locations in space and time will no longer hinder a collaboration in a team: be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or for the provision of services (a virtual law firm or accounting office, a virtual consultancy network).
Two on going developments are the virtual mall and the virtual catalogue.
There are well over 300 active virtual malls in the Internet. They were frequented by 32.5 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services in 1998. The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".
The virtual mall is a computer "space" (pages) in the internet, wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes a gate into the store and looks through its offering, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys the product and waits for it to arrive by mail. The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads.
Yet, slow communications and limited bandwidth - constrain the growth potential of this mode of sale. Once solved - intellectual property will be sold directly from the net, on-line. Until such time, the intervention of the Post Office is still required. So, then virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, the only difference being the exceptionally varied inventory.
Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.
This contrasts with a much more creative idea: the virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: the variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time.
The user will enter the site and there delineate his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue will be immediately generated for him.
From then on, the history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires will be accumulated and added to a database.
Each catalogue generated for him will come replete with order forms. Once the user concluded his purchases, his profile will be updated.
There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal ones. Big retail stores are not up to processing the flood of data expected to arrive. They also remain highly sceptical regarding the feasibility of the new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or the effective collection and usage of personal data.
The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: the "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".
They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to the appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.
They also provide price comparisons and the new generation (NetBot) cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.
In the future, these agents will refer also to real life retail chains and issue a map of the branch or store closest to an address specified by the user (the default being his residence). This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on the web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be the target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).
6. Internet News
Internet news are advantaged. They can be frequently and dynamically updated (unlike static print news) and be always accessible (similar to print news), immediate and fresh.
The future will witness a form of interactive news. A special "corner" in the site will be open to updates posted by the public (the equivalent of press releases). This will provide readers with a glimpse into the making of the news, the raw material news are made of. The same technology will be applied to interactive TVs. Content will be downloaded from the internet and be displayed as an overlay on the TV screen or in a square in a special location. The contents downloaded will be directly connected to the TV programming. Thus, the biography and track record of a football player will be displayed during a football match and the history of a country when it gets news coveage.
Terra Internetica - Internet, an Unknown Continent
This is an unconventional way to look at the Internet. Laymen and experts alike talk about "sites" and "advertising space". Yet, the Internet was never compared to a new continent whose surface is infinite.
The Internet will have its own real estate developers and construction companies. The real life equivalents derive their profits from the scarcity of the resource that they exploit - the Internet counterparts will derive their profits from the tenants (the content).
Two examples:
A few companies bought "Internet Space" (pages, domain names, portals), developed it and make commercial use of it by:
renting it out
constructing infrastructure and selling it
providing an intelligent gateway, entry point to the rest of the internet
or selling advertising space which subsidizes the tenants (Yahoo!-Geocities, Tripod and others).
Cybersquatting (purchasing specific domain names identical to brand names in the "real" world) and then selling the domain name to an interested party
Internet Space can be easily purchased or created. The investment is low and getting lower with the introduction of competition in the field of domain registration services and the increase in the number of top domains.
Then, infrastructure can be erected - for a shopping mall, for free home pages, for a portal, or for another purpose. It is precisely this infrastructure that the developer can later sell, lease, franchise, or rent out.
At the beginning, only members of the fringes and the avant-garde (inventors, risk assuming entrepreneurs, gamblers) invest in a new invention. The invention of a new communications technology is mostly accompanied by devastating silence.
No one knows to say what are the optimal uses of the invention (in other words, what is its future). Many - mostly members of the scientific and business elites - argue that there is no real need for the invention and that it substitutes a new and untried way for old and tried modes of doing the same thing (so why assume the risk?)
These criticisms are usually founded:
To start with, there is, indeed, no need for the new medium. A new medium invents itself - and the need for it. It also generates its own market to satisfy this newly found need.
Two prime examples are the personal computer and the compact disc.
When the PC was invented, its uses were completely unclear. Its performance was lacking, its abilities limited, it was horribly user unfriendly.
It suffered from faulty design, absent user comfort and ease of use and required considerable professional knowledge to operate. The worst part was that this knowledge was unique to the new invention (not portable).
It reduced labour mobility and limited one's professional horizons. There were many gripes among those assigned to tame the new beast.
The PC was thought of, at the beginning, as a sophisticated gaming machine, an electronic baby-sitter. As the presence of a keyboard was detected and as the professional horizon cleared it was thought of in terms of a glorified typewriter or spreadsheet. It was used mainly as a word processor (and its existence justified solely on these grounds). The spreadsheet was the first real application and it demonstrated the advantages inherent to this new machine (mainly flexibility and speed). Still, it was more (speed) of the same. A quicker ruler or pen and paper. What was the difference between this and a hand held calculator (some of them already had computing, memory and programming features)?
The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with the introduction of multimedia software. All this time, the computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialities. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.
The Internet is the computer's first important breakthrough. Hitherto the computer was only quantitatively different - the multimedia and the Internet have made it qualitatively superior, actually, sui generis, unique.
This, precisely, is the ghost haunting the Internet:
It has been invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: more, stronger, higher. Not: new, unprecedented, non-existent. To improve - not to invent. They stumbled across the Internet - it invented itself despite its own creators.
Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.
It is still the age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of the contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists and the totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages.
These all are attuned to the user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.
The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison's Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble: the improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that the sound quality of the first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what the manufacturers claimed was better quality Bach. A better argument was the longer life of the software (though contrasted with the limited life expectancy of the consumer, some of the first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).
The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing the consumers.
Every medium is first controlled by the technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is the world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate the use of the medium. Witness the initial confusion concerning copyrighted software and the copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. Recall the sale of radio frequencies to the first cellular phone operators in the West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays.
But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge.
This distinction is important. While in real life it is possible to sell an undeveloped plot of land - no one will buy "pages". The supply of these is unlimited - their scarcity (and, therefore, their virtual price) is zero.
The second example involves the utilization of a site - rather than its mere availability.
A developer could open a site wherein first time authors will be able to publish their first manuscript - for a fee. Evidently, such a fee will be a fraction of what it would take to publish a "real life" book. The author could collect money for any downloading of his book - and split it with the site developer. The potential buyers will be provided with access to the contents and to a chapter of the books. This is currently being done by a few fledgling firms but a full scale publishing industry has not yet developed.
The Life of a Medium The internet is simply the latest in a series of networks which revolutionized our lives. A century before the internet, the telegraph, the railways, the radio and the telephone have been similarly heralded as "global" and transforming.
Every medium of communications goes through the same evolutionary cycle:
Anarchy
The Public Phase
At this stage, the medium and the resources attached to it are very cheap, accessible, under no regulatory constraints. The public sector steps in: higher education institutions, religious institutions, government, not for profit organizations, non governmental organizations (NGOs), trade unions, etc. Bedevilled by limited financial resources, they regard the new medium as a cost effective way of disseminating their messages.
The Internet was not exempt from this phase which ended only a few years ago. It started with a complete computer anarchy manifested in ad hoc networks, local networks, networks of organizations (mainly universities and organs of the government such as DARPA, a part of the defence establishment, in the USA). Non commercial entities jumped on the bandwagon and started sewing these networks together (an activity fully subsidized by government funds). The result was a globe encompassing network of academic institutions. The American Pentagon established the network of all networks, the ARPANET. Other government departments joined the fray, headed by the National Science Foundation (NSF) which withdrew only lately from the Internet.
The Internet (with a different name) became semi-public property - with access granted to the chosen few.
Radio took precisely this course. Radio transmissions started in the USA in 1920. Those were anarchic broadcasts with no discernible regularity. Non commercial organizations and not for profit organizations began their own broadcasts and even created radio broadcasting infrastructure (albeit of the cheap and local kind) dedicated to their audiences. Trade unions, certain educational institutions and religious groups commenced "public radio" broadcasts.
The Commercial Phase
When the users (eg, listeners in the case of the radio, or owners of PCs and modems in the example of the Internet) reach a critical mass - the business sector is alerted. In the name of capitalist ideology (another religion, really) it demands "privatization" of the medium. This harps on very sensitive strings in every Western soul: the efficient allocation of resources which is the result of competition, corruption and inefficiency naturally associated with the public sector ("Other People's Money" - OPM), the ulterior motives of members of the ruling political echelons (the infamous American Paranoia), a lack of variety and of catering to the tastes and interests of certain audiences, the equation private enterprise = democracy and more.
The end result is the same: the private sector takes over the medium from "below" (makes offers to the owners or operators of the medium - that they cannot possibly refuse) - or from "above" (successful lobbying in the corridors of power leads to the appropriate legislation and the medium is "privatized").
Every privatization - especially that of a medium - provokes public opposition. There are (usually founded) suspicions that the interests of the public were compromised and sacrificed on the altar of commercialization and rating. Fears of monopolization and cartelization of the medium are evoked - and justified, in due time. Otherwise, there is fear of the concentration of control of the medium in a few hands. All these things do happen - but the pace is so slow that the initial fears are forgotten and public attention reverts to fresher issues.
A new Communications Act was legislated in the USA in 1934. It was meant to transform radio frequencies into a national resource to be sold to the private sector which will use it to transmit radio signals to receivers. In other words: the radio was passed on to private and commercial hands. Public radio was doomed to be marginalized.
The American administration withdrew from its last major involvement in the Internet in April 1995, when the NSF ceased to finance some of the networks and, thus, privatized its hitherto heavy involvement in the net.
A new Communications Act was legislated in 1996. It permitted "organized anarchy". It allowed media operators to invade each other's territories.
Phone companies will be allowed to transmit video and cable companies will be allowed to transmit telephony, for instance. This is all phased over a long period of time - still, it is a revolution whose magnitude is difficult to gauge and whose consequences defy imagination. It carries an equally momentous price tag - official censorship. "Voluntary censorship", to be sure, somewhat toothless standardization and enforcement authorities, to be sure - still, a censorship with its own institutions to boot. The private sector reacted by threatening litigation - but, beneath the surface it is caving in to pressure and temptation, constructing its own censorship codes both in the cable and in the internet media.
Institutionalization
This phase is the next in the Internet's history, though, it seems, unbeknownst to it.
It is characterized by enhanced activities of legislation. Legislators, on all levels, discover the medium and lurch at it passionately. Resources which were considered "free", suddenly are transformed to "national treasures not to be dispensed with cheaply, casually and with frivolity".
It is conceivable that certain parts of the Internet will be "nationalized" (for instance, in the form of a licensing requirement) and tendered to the private sector. Legislation will be enacted which will deal with permitted and disallowed content (obscenity? incitement? racial or gender bias?)
No medium in the USA (not to mention the wide world) has eschewed such legislation. There are sure to be demands to allocate time (or space, or software, or content, or hardware) to "minorities", to "public affairs", to "community business". This is a tax that the business sector will have to pay to fend off the eager legislator and his nuisance value.
All this is bound to lead to a monopolization of hosts and servers. The important broadcast channels will diminish in number and be subjected to severe content restrictions. Sites which will not succumb to these requirements - will be deleted or neutralized. Content guidelines (euphemism for censorship) exist, even as we write, in all major content providers (CompuServe, AOL, Geocities, Tripod, Prodigy).
The Bloodbath
This is the phase of consolidation. The number of players is severely reduced. The number of browser types will be limited to 2-3 (Netscape, Microsoft and which else?). Networks will merge to form privately owned mega-networks. Servers will merge to form hyper-servers run on supercomputers in "server farms". The number of ISPs will be considerably cut.
50 companies ruled the greater part of the media markets in the USA in 1983. The number in 1995 was 18. At the end of the century they will number 6.
This is the stage when companies - fighting for financial survival - strive to acquire as many users/listeners/viewers as possible. The programming is shallowed to the lowest (and widest) common denominator. Shallow programming dominates as long as the bloodbath proceeds.
From Rags to Riches
Tough competition produces four processes:
1. A Major Drop in Hardware Prices
This happens in every medium but it doubly applies to a computer-dependent medium, such as the Internet.
Computer technology seems to abide by "Moore's Law" which says that the number of transistors which can be put on a chip doubles itself every 18 months. As a result of this miniaturization, computing power quadruples every 18 months and an exponential series ensues. Organic-biological-DNA computers, quantum computers, chaos computers - prompted by vast profits and spawned by inventive genius will ensure the longevity and continued applicability of Moore's Law.
The Internet is also subject to "Metcalf's Law".
It says that when we connect N computers to a network - we get an increase of N to the second power in its computing / processing power. And these N computers are more powerful every year, according to Moore's Law.
The growth of computing powers in networks is a multiple of the effects of the two laws. More and more computers with ever increasing computing power get connected and create an exponential 16 times growth in the network's computing power every 18 months.
2. Free Availability of Software and Connection
This is prevalent in the Net where even potentially commercial software can be downloaded for free. In many countries television viewers still pay for television broadcasts - but in the USA and many other countries in the West, the basic package of television channels comes free of charge.
As users / consumers form a habit of using (or consuming) the software - it is commercialized and begins to carry a price tag. This is what happened with the advent of cable television: contents are sold for subscription and usage (Pay Per View - PPV) fees.
Gradually, this is what will happen to most of the sites and software on the Net. Those which survive will begin to collect usage fees, access fees, subscription fees, downloading fees and other, appropriately named, fees. These fees are bound to be low - but it is the principle that counts. Even a few cents per transaction will accumulate to hefty sums with the traffic which will characterize the Net (or, at least its more popular locales).
Adverising revenues will allow ISPs to offer free communication and storage volume. Gradually, connect time charges imposed by the phone companies will be eroded by tough competition from the likes of the cable companies. Accessing the internet might well be free of all charges in 10 years time.
3. Increased User Friendliness
As long as the computer is less user friendly and less reliable (predictable) than television - less of a black box - its potential (and its future) is limited. Television attracts 3.5 billion users daily. The Internet will attract - under the most exuberant scenario - less than one tenth of this number of people. The only reasons for this disparity are (the lack of) user friendliness and reliability. Even browsers, among the most user friendly applications ever - are not sufficiently so. The user still needs to know how to use a keyboard and must possess some basic acquaintance with the operating system.
The more mature the medium, the more friendly it becomes. Finally, it will be operated using speech or common language. There will be room left for user "hunches" and built in flexible responses.
4. Social Taxes
Sooner or later, the business sector has to mollify the God of public opinion by offerings of political and social nature. The Internet is an affluent, educated, yuppie medium. It necessitates a control of the English language, live interest in information and its various uses (scientific, commercial, other), a lot of resources (free time, money to invest in hardware, software and connect time). It empowers - and thus deepens the divide between the haves and have-nots, the knowing and the ignorant, the computer illiterate.
In short: the Internet is an elitist medium. Publicly, this is an unhealthy posture. "Internetophobia" is already discernible. People (and politicians) talk about how unsafe the Internet is and about its possible uses for racial, sexist and pornographic purposes. The wider public is in a state of awe.
So, site builders and owners will do well to begin to improve their image: provide free access to schools and community centres, bankroll internet literacy classes, freely distribute contents and software to educational institutions, collaborate with researchers and social scientists and engineers.
In short: encourage the view that the Internet is a medium catering to the needs of the community and the underprivileged, a mostly altruist endeavour. This also happens to make good business sense by educating a future generation of users. He who visited a site when a student, free of charge - will pay to do so when made an executive. Such a user will also pass on the information within and without his organization. This is called media exposure.
The future will, no doubt, witness public Internet terminals, subsidized ISP accounts, free Internet classes and an alternative "non-commercial, public" approach to the Net.
The Internet: Medium or Chaos?
There has never been a medium like the Internet. The way it has formed, the way it was (not) managed, its hardware-software-communications specifications - are all unique.
No Government
The Internet has no central (or even decentralized) structure. In reality, it hardly has a structure at all. It is a collection of 16 million computers (end 1996) connected through thousands of networks. There are organizations which purport to set Internet standards (like the aforementioned ISOC, or the domain setting ICANN) - but they are all voluntary organizations, with no binding legal, enforcement, or adjudication powers. The result is often mayhem.
Many erroneously call the Internet the first democratic medium. Yet, it hardly qualifies as a medium and by no stretch of terminology is it democratic. Democracy has institutions, hierarchies, order. The Internet has none of these things. There are some vague understandings as to what is and is not allowed. This is a "code of honour" (more reminiscent of the Sicilian Mob than of the British Parliament, let's say). Violations are punished by excommunication (of the violating site or person).
The Internet has culture - but no education. Freedom of Speech is entrenched. Members of this virtual community react adversely to ideas of censorship, even when applied to hard core porno. In 1999, hackers hacked major government sites following an FBI initiative against hacking-related crimes. Government initiatives (in the USA, in France, the lawsuit against the General Manager of AOL in Germany) are acutely criticized. In the meantime, the spirit of the Internet prevails: the small man's medium. What seems to be emerging, though, is self censorship by content providers (such as AOL and CompuServe).
Independence
The Internet is not dependent upon a given hardware or software. True, it is accessible only through computers and there are dominant browsers.
But the Internet accommodates any digital (bit transfer) platform. Internet will be incorporated in the future into portable computers, palmtops, PDAs, mobile phones, cable television, telephones (with voice interface), home appliances and even wrist watches. It will be accessible to all, regardless of hardware and software.
The situation is, obviously, different with other media. There is standard hardware (the television set, the radio receiver, the digital print equipment). Data transfer modes are standardized as well. The only variable is the contents - and even this is standardized in an age of American cultural imperialism. Today, one can see the same television programs all over the globe, regardless of cultural or geographical differences.
Here is a reasonable prognosis for the Internet:
It will "broadcast" (it is, of course, a PULL medium, not a PUSH medium - see next chapter) to many kinds of hardware. Its functions will be controlled by 2-5 very common software applications. But it will differ from television in that contents will continue to be decentralized: every point on the Net is a potential producer of content at low cost. This is the equivalent of producing a talk show using a single home video camera. And the contents will remain varied.
Naturally, marketing content (sites) will remain an expensive art. Sites will also be richer or poorer, in accordance with the investment made in them.
Non Linearity and Functional Modularity
The Internet is the first medium in human history that is non-linear and totally modular.
A television program is broadcast from a transmitter, through the airwaves to a receiver (=the television set). The viewer sits opposite this receiver and passively watches. This is an entirely linear process. The Internet is different:
When communicating through the Internet, there is no way to predict how the information will reach its destination. The routing of information through the network is completely random, very much like the principle governing the telephony system (but on a global scale). The latter is not a point-to-point linear network. Rather, it is a network of networks. Our voice is transmitted back and forth inside a gigantic maze of copper wires and optic fibres. It seeps through any available wire - until it reaches its destination.
It is the same with the Internet.
Information is divided to packets. An address is attached to each packet and - using the TCP/IP data transfer protocol - is dispatched to roam this worldwide labyrinth. But the path from one neighbourhood of London to another may traverse Japan.
The really ingenious thing about the Internet is that each computer (each receiver or end user) indeed burdens the system by imposing on it its information needs (as is the case with other media) - but it also assists in the task of pushing information packets on to their destinations. It seems that this contribution to the system outweighs the burdens imposed upon it.
The network has a growth potential which is always bigger than the number of its users. It is as though television sets assisted in passing the signals received by them to other television sets. Every computer which is a member of the network is both a message (content) and a medium (active information channel), both a transmitter and a receiver. If 30% of all computers on the Net were to crash - there will be no operational impact (there is enormous built in redundancy). Obviously, some contents will no longer be available (information channels will be affected).
The interactivity of this medium is a guarantee against the monopolization of contents. Anyone with a thousand dollars can launch his/her own (reasonably sophisticated) site, accessible to all other Internet users. Space is available through home page providers.
The name of the game is no longer the production - it is the creative content (design), the content itself and, above all, the marketing of the site.
The Internet is an infinite and unlimited resource. This goes against the grain of the most basic economic concept (of scarcity). Each computer that joins the Internet strengthens it exponentially - and tens of thousands join daily. The Internet infrastructure (maybe with the exception of communication backbones) can accommodate an annual growth of 100% to the year 2020. It is the user who decides whether to increase the Internet's infrastructure by connecting his computer to it. By comparison: it is as though it were possible to produce and to broadcast radio programmes from every radio receiver. Each computer is a combination of studio and transmitter (on the Internet).
In reality, there is no other interactive medium except the Internet. Cable TV does not allow two-way data transfer (from user to cable operator). If the user wants to buy a product - he has to phone. Interactive television is an abject failure (the Sony and TCI experiments were terminated). This all is notwithstanding the combining of the Internet with satellite capabilities (VSAT) or with the revenant digital television.
The television screen is inferior when compared to the computer screen. Only the Internet is there as a true two-way possibility. The technological problems that besieged it are slowly dissipating.
The Internet allows for one-dimensional and bi - dimensional interactivity.
One-dimensional interactivity: fill in and dispatch a form, send and receive messages (through e-mail or v-mail).
Two-dimensional interactivity: to talk to someone while both parties work on an application, to see your conversant, to talk to him and to transfer documents to him for his perusal as the conversation continues apace.
This is no longer science fiction. In less than five years this will be as common as the telephone - and it will have a profound effect on the traditional services provided by the phone companies. Internet phones, Internet videophones - they will be serious competitors and the phone companies are likely to react once they begin to feel the heat. This will happen when the Internet will acquire black box features. Phone companies, software giants and cable TV operators are likely to end up owning big chunks of the lucrative future market of the Net.
The Solitary Medium
The Internet is NOT a popular medium. It is the medium of affluent executives who fully master the English language, as part of a wider general education.
Alternatively, it is the medium of academia (students, lecturers), or of children of the former, well-to-do group. In any case, it is not the medium of the "wide public". It is also a highly individualistic medium.
The Internet was an initiative of the DOD (Department of Defence in the USA). It was later "requisitioned" by the National science Fund (NSF) in the USA. This continuous involvement of the administration came to an end in 1995 when the medium was "privatized".
This "privatization" was a recognition of the civilian roots of the Internet. It was - and is still being - formed by millions of information-intoxicated users. They formed networks to exchange bits and pieces of mutual interest. Thus, as opposed to all other media, the Internet was not invented, nor was its market. The inventors of the telephone, the telegraph, the radio, the television and the compact disc - all invented previously non-existent markets for their products. It took time, effort and money to convince consumers that they needed these "gadgets".
By contrast, the Internet was invented by its own consumers and so was the market for it. Only when the latter was fully forged did producers and businessmen join in. Microsoft began to hesitantly test the internet waters only in 1995!
On Line Memories
The Internet is the only medium with online memory, very much like the human brain. The memories of these two - the Net and the Brain - are immediately accessible. In both, it is stored in sites and in both, it does not grow old or is eliminated. It is possible to find sites which commemorate events the same way that the human mind registers them. This is Net Memory. The history of a site can be reviewed. The Library of Congress stores the consecutive development phases of sites. The Internet is an amazing combination of data processing software, data, a record of all the activities which took place in connection with the data and the memory of these records. Only the human brain is recalled by these capacities: one language serves all these functions, the language of the neurones.
There is a much clearer distinction even in computers (not to mention more conventional media, such as television).
Raw English - the Language of Raw Materials
The following - apparently trivial - observation is critical:
All the other media provide us with processed, censored, "clean" content.
The Internet is a medium of raw materials, partly well organized (the rough equivalent of a newspaper) - and partly still in raw form, yesterday's supper.
This is a result of the immediate and absolute access afforded each user: access to programming and site publishing tools - as well as access to computer space on servers. This leads to varying degrees of quality of contents and content providers and this, in turn, prevents monopolization and cartelization of the information supply channels.
The users of the Internet are still undecided: do they prefer drafts or newspapers. They frequent well designed sites. There are even design competitions and awards. But they display a preference for sites that are constantly updated (ie closer in their nature to a raw material - rather than to a finished product). They prefer sites from which they can download material to quietly process at home, alone, on their PCs, at their leisure.
Even the concept of "interactivity" points at a preference for raw materials with which one can interact. For what is interactivity if not the active involvement of the user in the creation of content?
The Internet users love to be involved, to feel the power in their fingertips, they are all addicted to one form of power or another.
Similarly, a car completely automatically driven and navigated is not likely to sell well. Part of the experience of driving - the sensation of power ("power stirring") - is critical to the purchase decision.
It is not in vain that the metaphor for using the Internet is "surfing" (and not, let's say, browsing).
The problem is that the Internet is still predominantly an English language medium (though it is fast changing). It discriminates against those whose mother tongue is different. All software applications work best in English. Otherwise they have to be adapted and fitted with special fonts (Hebrew, Arabic, Japanese, Russian and Chinese - each present a different set of problems to overcome). This situation might change with the attainment of a critical mass of users (some say, 2 million per non-Anglophone country).
Comprehensive (Virtual) Reality
This is the first (though, probably, not the last) medium which allows the user to conduct his whole life within its boundaries.
Television presents a clear division: there is a passive viewer. His task is to absorb information and subject it to minimal processing. The Internet embodies a complete and comprehensive (virtual) reality, a full fledged alternative to real life.
The illusion is still in its infancy - and yet already powerful.
The user can talk to others, see them, listen to music, see video, purchase goods and services, play games (alone or with others scattered around the globe), converse with colleagues, or with users with the same hobbies and areas of interest, to play music together (separated by time and space).
And all this is very primitive. In ten years time, the Internet will offer its users the option of video conferencing (possibly, three dimensional, holographic). The participants' figures will be projected on big screens. Documents will be exchanged, personal notes, spreadsheets, secret counteroffers.
Virtual Reality games will become reality in less time. Special end-user equipment will make the player believe that he, actually, is part of the game (while still in his room). The player will be able to select an image borrowed from a database and it will represent him, seen by all the other players. Everyone will, thus, end up invading everyone else's private space - without encroaching on his privacy!
The Internet will be the medium of choice for phone and videophone communication (including conferencing).
Many mundane activities will be done through Internet: banking, shopping for standard items, etc.
The above are examples to the Internet's power and ability to replace our reality in due time. A world out there will continue to exist - but, more and more we will interact with it through the enchanted interface of the Net.
A Brave New Net
The future of a medium in the making is difficult to predict. Suffice it to mention the ridiculous prognoses which accompanied the PC (it is nothing but a gaming gadget, it is a replacement for the electric typewriter, will be used only by business). The telephone also had its share of ludicrous statements: no one - claimed the "experts" would like to avoid eye contact while talking. Or television: only the Nazi regime seemed to have fully grasped its potential (in the Berlin 1936 Olympics). And Bill Gates thought that the internet has a very limited future as late as 1995!!!
Still, this medium has a few characteristics which differentiate it from all its predecessors. Were these traits to be continuously and creatively exploited - a few statements can be made about the future of the Net with relative assurance.
Time and Space Independence
This is the first medium in history which does not require the simultaneous presence of people in space-time in order to facilitate the transfer of information. Television requires the existence of studio technicians, narrators and others in the transmitting side - and the availability of a viewer in the receiving side. The phone is dependent on the existence of two or more parties simultaneously.
With time, tools to bridge the time gap between transmitter and receiver were developed. The answering machine and the video cassette recorder both accumulate information sent by a transmitter - and release it to a receiver in a different space and time. But they are discrete, their storage volume is limited and they do not allow for interaction with the transmitter.
The Internet does not have these handicaps.
It facilitates the formation of "virtual organizations / institutions / businesses/ communities". These are groups of users that communicate in different points in space and time, united by a common goal or interest.
A few examples:
The Virtual Advertising Agency
A budget executive from the USA will manage the account of a hi-tech firm based in Sydney. He will work with technical experts from Israel and with a French graphics office. They will all file their work (through the intranet) in the Net, to be studied by the other members of this virtual group. These will enter the right site after clearing a firewall security software. They will all be engaged in flexiwork (flexible working times) and work from their homes or offices, as they please. Obviously, they will all abide by a general schedule.
They will exchange audio files (the jingle, for instance), graphics, video, colour photographs and text. They will comment on each other's work and make suggestions using e-mail. The client will witness the whole creative process and will be able to contribute to it. There is no technological obstacle preventing the participation of the client's clients, as well.
Virtual Rock'n'Roll
It is difficult to imagine that "virtual performances will replace real life ones.
The mass rock concert has its own inimitable sounds, palette and smells. But a virtual production of a record is on the cards and it is tens of percents cheaper than a normal production. Again, the participants will interact through the Intranet. They will swap notes, play their own instruments, make comments by e-mail, play together using an appropriate software. If one of them is grabbed by inspiration in the middle of (his) night, he will be able to preserve and pass on his ideas through the Net. The creative process will be aided by novel applications which enable the simultaneous transfer of sound over the Net. The processes which are already digitized (the mix, for one) will pose no problem to a digitized medium. Other applications will let the users listen to the final versions and even ask the public for his preview opinion.
Thus, even creative processes which are perceived as demanding human presence - will no longer do so with the advent of the Net.
Perhaps it is easier to understand a Virtual Law Firm or Virtual Accountants Office.
In the extreme, such a firm will not have physical offices, at all. The only address will be an e-mail address. Dozens of lawyers from all over the world with hundreds of specialities will be partners in such an office. Such an office will be truly multinational and multidisciplinary. It will be fast and effective because its members will electronically swap information (precedents, decrees, laws, opinions, research and plain ideas or professional experience).
It will be able to service clients in every corner of the globe. It will involve the transfer of audio files (NetPhones), text, graphics and video (crucial in certain types of litigation). Today, such information is sent by post and messenger services. Whenever different types of information are to be analysed - a physical meeting is a must. Otherwise, each type of information has to be transferred separately, using unique equipment for each one.
Simultaneity and interactivity - this will be the name of the game in the Internet. The professional term is "Coopetition" (cooperation between potential competitors, using the Internet).
Other possibilities: a virtual production of a movie, a virtual research and development team, a virtual sales force. The harbingers of the virtual university, the virtual classroom and the virtual (or distance) medical centre are here.
The Internet - Mother of all Media
The Internet is the technological solution to the mythological "home entertainment centre" debate.
It is almost universally agreed that, in the future, a typical home will have one apparatus which will give it access to all types of information. Even the most daring did not talk about simultaneous access to all the types of information or about full interactivity.
The Internet will offer exactly this: access to every conceivable type of information simultaneously , the ability to process them at the same time and full interactivity. The future image of this home centre is fairly clear - it is the timing that is not. It is all dependent on the availability of a wide (information) band - through which it will be possible to transfer big amounts of data at high speeds, using the same communications line. Fast modems were coupled with optic fibres and with faulty planning and vision of future needs. The cable television industry, for instance, is totally technologically unprepared for the age of interactivity. This is only partly the result of unwise, restrictive, legislation which prohibits data vendors from stepping on each others' toes. Phone companies were not permitted to provide Internet services or to transfer video through their wires - and cable companies were not allowed to transmit phone calls.
It is a question of time until these fossilized remains are removed by the almighty hand of the market. When this happens, the home centre is likely to look like this:
A central computer attached to a big screen divided to windows. Television is broadcast on one window. A software application is running on another. This could be an application connected to the television program (deriving data from it, recording it, collating it with pertinent data it picks out of databases). It could be an independent application (a computer game).
Updates from the New York Stock exchange flash at the corner of the screen and an icon blinks to signal the occurrence of a significant economic event.
A click of the mouse (?) and the news flash is converted to a voice message. Another click and your broker is on the InternetPhone (possibly seen in a third window on the screen). You talk, you send him a fax containing instructions and you compare notes. The fax was printed on a word processing application which opened up in yet another window.
Many believe that communication with the future generation of computers will be voice communication. This is difficult to believe. It is weird to talk to a machine (especially in the presence of other humans). We are seriously inhibited this way. Moreover, voice will interrupt other people's work or pleasure. It is also close to impossible to develop an efficient voice recognition software. Not to mention mishaps such as accidental activation.
The Friendly Internet
The Internet will not escape the processes experienced by all other media.
It will become easy to operate, user-friendly, in professional parlance.
It requires too much specialized information. It is not accessible to those who lack basic hardware and (Windows) software concepts.
Alas, most of the population falls into the latter category. Only 30 million "Windows" operating systems were sold worldwide at the end of 1996. Even if this constitutes 20% of all the copies (the rest being pirated versions) - it still represents less than 3% of the population of the world. And this, needless to say, is the world's most popular software (following the DOS operating system).
The Internet must rely on something completely different. It must have sophisticated, transparent-to-the-user search engines to guide to the cavernous chaotic libraries which will typify it. The search engines must include complex decision making algorithms. They must understand common languages and respond in mundane speech. They will be efficient and incredibly fast because they will form their own search strategy (supplanting the user's faulty use of syntax).
These engines, replete with smart agents will refer the user to additional data, to cultural products which reflect the user's history of preferences (or pronounced preferences expressed in answers to feedback questionnaires). All the decisions and activities of the user will be stored in the memory of his search engine and assist it in designing its decision making trees. The engine will become an electronic friend, advise the user, even on professional matters.
Cease-Fire
The cessation of hostilities between the Internet and some off-the-shelf software applications heralds the commencement of the integration between the desktop computer and the Net. This is a small step for the user - and a big one for humanity. The animosity which prevailed until recently between the UNIX systems and the HTML language and between most of the standard applications (headed by the Word Processors) - has officially ended with the introduction of Office 97 which incorporates full HTML capabilities. With the Office 2000 products, the distinctions between a web computing environment and a PC computing one - have all but vanished. Browsers can replace operating systems, word processors can browse, download and upload - the PC has finally been entirely absorbed by its offspring, the internet.
The Portable Document Format (PDF) enables the user to work the Internet off-line. In other words: text files will be loaded to word processors and edited off-line. The same applies to other types of files (audio, video).
Downloading time will be speeded up (today, it takes so long to download an audio or video file that, many times, it is impracticable).
This is not a trivial matter. The ability to switch between on-line and off-line states and to continue the work, uninterrupted - this ability means the integration of the PC in the Internet.
There are two competing views concerning the future of computer hardware and both of them acknowledge the importance of the Internet.
Bill Gates - Microsoft's legendary boss - says that the PC will continue to advance and strengthen its processing and computing powers. The Internet will be just another tool available through telecommunications, rather than through the ownership of hard copies of software and data. The Internet is perceived to be a tremendous external database, available for processing by tomorrow's desktops. This view is lately being gradually reversed in view of the incredible vitality and powers of the Internet.
Gates is converging on the worldview held by Sun Microsystems.
The future desktop will be a terminal, albeit powerful and with considerable processing, computing and communications capabilities. The name of the game will be the Internet itself. The terminal will access Internet databases (containing raw or processed data) and satisfy its information needs.
This terminal - equipped with languages the likes of Java - will get into libraries of software applications. It will make use of components of different applications as the needs arise. When finished using the component, the terminal will "return" it to the virtual "shelf" until the next time it is needed.
This will minimize memory resources in the desktop.
The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle.
Tomorrow's computer will be a home entertainment centre. No consumer will accept total dependence on telecommunications and on the Net. They will all ask for processing and computing powers at their fingertips, a-la Bill Gates.
But tomorrow's computer will also function as a terminal, when needed: when data retrieving or even when using NON standard software applications. Why purchase rarely used, expensive applications - when they are available, for a fraction of the cost, on the Net?
In other words: no consumer will subjugate his frequent word processing needs to the whims of the local phone company, or to those of the site operator. That is why every desktop is still likely to be include a hard (or optical)-disk-resident word processing software. But very few will by CAD-CAM, animation, graphics, or publishing software which they are likely to use infrequently. Instead, they will access these applications, which will be resident in the Net, use those parts that are needed. This is usage tailored to the client's needs. This is also the integration of a desktop (no |
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